Normally I do my entire look at the week’s major college football games on Friday night & thus I’m forced to ignore any games played on Thursday or Friday, obviously that wouldn’t do this week (Though I’m only previewing Friday’s games here, the rest I will preview at my normal time). This year not only is the day after Thanksgiving Black Friday, but it is quite possibly the defining day in deciding who will play for the BCS National Championship (It’s important to always try & remember to include the BCS part of that because to do otherwise would suggest D-1A college football has a legitimate championship game).
#1 Oregon faces its last ranked opponent in a 21st ranked Arizona team that’s fought it tooth & nail nearly every year regardless of the final outcome. #2 Auburn face its greatest challenge yet in the defending “National Champions” #11 Alabama (Remember, Boise State finished last year undefeated too). While #4 Boise State goes up against a one loss Nevada team ranked 19th, giving them a chance to prove the remaining doubters that they truly do deserve a chance at college football’s mythical title.
That’s the three biggest contenders for this year’s title (So long as Boise wins their last two I fully expect them to jump TCU in the rankings) going up against three ranked teams, & two of them must do so on the road (Oregon’s the lone home team). College football just doesn’t get any better than this. At least until they have a playoff…
Top 10:
· #2 Auburn at #11 Alabama-Auburn has the 5th ranked scoring offense & Bama has the 3rd ranked scoring defense. Normally when teams with such opposing strengths face off you’ll hear people say, “Something’s got to give.” The truth is of course that in all likelihood that they’ll both give a little. Auburn’s not going to score 45 points, but Bama’s not going to hold them to 12 either, instead they’ll settle somewhere in between. The question than becomes which team is better equipped for a game in which their greatest strength is somewhat neutralized.
Now Bama has given up more than 13 points only three times this year, & they’re 1-2 in those games, while Auburn’s been held under 30 points a mere three times & they, obviously, have yet to lose. However in two of those games (including one in overtime) Auburn was at home, & low & behold both of those Bama losses were on the road. A quick look at the stats also shows that Bama has the 20th ranked scoring offense, while Auburn’s defense is ranked a less than impressive 60th in points allowed.
A month ago Auburn edged out a fantastic defensive team with a mediocre offense (LSU) 24-17 at home. This week they face another fantastic defense, thing is this one brings some fire power & one hell of a home field advantage. Roll Tide.
Bama 30, Auburn 24
· #4 Boise State at #19 Nevada-Ohio State’s athletic director said this week that even if Boise or TCU go undefeated they don’t deserve a shot at the BCS National Championship, even if Oregon or Auburn were to lose, because their schedules aren’t challenging enough. Personally I feel that such an argument would be trumped by the “If you’ve lost a game you don’t deserve a shot over a team that is perfect this season,” argument. Nonetheless there are people out there that agree a loser deserves a shot over a winner & thus it is important that Boise not only win this game but, defeat Nevada convincingly. This is a task that Boise has succeeded in doing to each of its previous opponents, save one-Virginia Tech (A team on its way to eleven straight wins, the ACC Title, & a top-10 ranking).
Now that Virginia Tech game was on the road, as is this one. Virginia Tech featured a talented quarterback with wide receiver like speed, as does Nevada in Colin Kaepernick. However there are some notable difference between the Hokies & the Wolfpack. Virginia Tech is rightfully known for its excellent defense & special teams, Nevada is not.
Now Nevada does have that pistol offense that’s so hard to defend. Thing is this is also the Boise State team that contained Oregon’s high scoring & innovative offense the last two years on the way to victories over the Ducks (& considering Boise only lost one defensive starter from last year’s team it really is the same Bronco team that shut down the Ducks). So I wouldn’t be overly worried about Boise’s defense (2nd in points allowed) in this one. & on offense (2nd in points scored) they have Kellen Moore, the best eligible QB in the nation, so I wouldn’t worry there either.
I have a rule about Boise State games: Always bet the over. This week the Broncos are favored by 14.5 , & I’m not breaking my rule.
Boise 41, Nevada 23
The Arizona Game:
#21 Arizona at #1 Oregon-Contrary to what some may believe this game will not define Arizona’s season. Certainly a win here would be great, but if it’s followed by a loss to ASU & in UA’s bowl game I would mark this season down as a failure. Conversely if the opposite happened I’d greet this season as a success. So based on the result of this game don’t immediately go touting the Wildcats as the kings of the world, or go screaming about what a bunch of bums they are.
The last two years Arizona has lost to Oregon in hard fought shootouts they arguably should have won*. Problem is this year we don’t have much reason to believe Arizona can really compete in a shootout, let alone win one. While it’s true Arizona exceeded thirty points in its first three games it is also true that since then the Wildcats have managed thirty points only against lowly Washington. Sure the offense has put up fantastic amounts of yardage against the likes of Oregon State & USC, yet in each game they found ways to let much of that yardage go to waste as they failed to capitalize on too many scoring opportunities & lost two very winnable games. If Foles doesn’t play to the level he did last year against Oregon**, & the rest of the offense doesn’t follow suit, the Cats won’t stand a chance.
*Especially last year, a game that we would have won if not for the idiocy of much of Zona Zoo. Is that like Cub fans blaming Bartman or the Billy goat for their not going to the World Series or Boston fans lamenting the Curse of the Bambino for all those years? I’d say yes except, those things were all just fans trying to find a reason for their suffering beyond the simple fact their teams weren’t good enough, while those motherf@#$ing sons of b@#%$s really did cost us the Rose Bowl-& you’ll never convince me otherwise.
**It’s often lost in the aftermath of that gut wrenching defeat that Foles played the best game of his career that day, including the last pass he threw in regulation-a perfectly thrown ball into the end zone that was dropped by his wide receiver & then picked off, keeping Oregon within 7 & giving them the ball for their fateful 4th quarter drive.
But maybe it won’t be a shootout you say. Cal held Oregon to a mere 17 points, & we’ve got a better defense. Plus we’ve had two weeks to study that tape & figure out how to emulate the Golden Bears. First off Cal was at home, so Oregon had to deal with crowd noise & the Cal defense could feed off the crowd’s energy, neither of those factors will be in Arizona’s favor. Secondly while we do have a good defense, & one that’s better than Cal’s, it is nothing more than that. The front seven has been solid for much of the year, & even fantastic at times as they were against Iowa. However it’s also a group that can tire down, as seen in the 2nd half of the Stanford & USC games. As for the defensive backs they seem to have regressed from the beginning of the year, when they were believed to be the defense’s strength, to the point where they’re the team’s Achilles heal (Ok, besides the kicking game). & as for that two weeks of film study expect Oregon to have gained far more from that. They have better coaches than we do (that’s not to say Stoops & co. aren’t good, they are, but they’re simply not at Oregon’s elite level), & thus should have been able to figure out a way to neutralize the defensive schemes Cal deployed against them (besides the faking injury strategy anyway).
At the beginning of the year I had Arizona winning this game. I now realize, especially after the last two games in which I wrongly picked Arizona, that I had slightly overrated the Wildcats (I did correctly pick the loss to OSU & originally had the Stanford game right after all). To a far greater degree though I underestimated the Ducks. For someone who always thought Jeremiah Mesoli was overrated I penalized them too heavily for losing him & having to break in a new QB. I’m embarrassed to say I picked them to finish fourth in the PAC-10 (behind Stanford, Oregon State, & Arizona). Well Oregon I had you pegged wrong, you’re legit & I’ll enjoy watching you play in the “National Championship.”
Oregon 44, Arizona 31
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