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| One hundred years of CTE! (Bill Feig / Associated Press) |
AFC Preview
AFC East
1. Patriots 13-3 (1)
2. Jets 8-8
3. Bills 5-11
4. Dolphins 3-13
A month ago New England's biggest weakness appeared to be a less than stellar receiving corps, now they have Josh Gordon &, somehow, Antonio Brown. There may be no guarantees either is still playing in January, but if anyone can keep them on the field & productive it's the Brady/Belichick duo. They've also got a strong line, good stable of running backs, a steal from the draft in end Chase Winovich, & a defense built around the best cover corner in football, Stephon Gilmore. The only question in the regular season is if they'll be the one or two seed in the AFC.
The Jets went 4-12 last year so they naturally went all in, spending gobs of money in free agency with two huge contracts for a running back & run stopping linebacker. Perhaps they should've fired Mike Maccagnan at the end of last season, as any sane team would have, before that spending spree & the questionable hiring of Adam Gase (& self proclaimed genius DC Greg Williams). Still, while the Jets may have set themselves back in the long term, there's little doubt the roster is more talented than the bare cupboard Todd Bowles had to work with the last few seasons & if Sam Darnold progresses as expected they'll be able to beat up on a weak schedule to reach .500.
Bills fans will tell you between their elite defense, massively upgraded offense, & Josh Allen being the best young QB in the division that Buffalo is primed to win 9 or 10 games & get back to the playoffs. They're not completely off base on those first two. The defense is talented, especially on the back end, & they did add some capable pieces on offense, but the defense is likely to regress from last year's second best standing (according to Football Outsiders' DVOA) & just because the offense is better doesn't mean it will be anywhere close to good. That latter point is especially true with someone as inaccurate as Allen leading the charge (33rd out of 35 in accuracy last season according to Pro Football Focus). So let's hold off on the playoff talk.
Miami is already a winner for the incredible haul they got from the GM-less Texans for Laremy Tunsil (A guy I yelled for the Giants to take in the 2015 draft before they opted for Eli Apple), which is good because there won't be much winning on the field this year even if/when they come to their senses & try to find out if Josh Rosen has any talent rather than being the eighth team to attempt to capture some Fitzmagic.
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| These guys on the same team? That seems unfair. (USA Today) |
The Jets went 4-12 last year so they naturally went all in, spending gobs of money in free agency with two huge contracts for a running back & run stopping linebacker. Perhaps they should've fired Mike Maccagnan at the end of last season, as any sane team would have, before that spending spree & the questionable hiring of Adam Gase (& self proclaimed genius DC Greg Williams). Still, while the Jets may have set themselves back in the long term, there's little doubt the roster is more talented than the bare cupboard Todd Bowles had to work with the last few seasons & if Sam Darnold progresses as expected they'll be able to beat up on a weak schedule to reach .500.
Bills fans will tell you between their elite defense, massively upgraded offense, & Josh Allen being the best young QB in the division that Buffalo is primed to win 9 or 10 games & get back to the playoffs. They're not completely off base on those first two. The defense is talented, especially on the back end, & they did add some capable pieces on offense, but the defense is likely to regress from last year's second best standing (according to Football Outsiders' DVOA) & just because the offense is better doesn't mean it will be anywhere close to good. That latter point is especially true with someone as inaccurate as Allen leading the charge (33rd out of 35 in accuracy last season according to Pro Football Focus). So let's hold off on the playoff talk.
Miami is already a winner for the incredible haul they got from the GM-less Texans for Laremy Tunsil (A guy I yelled for the Giants to take in the 2015 draft before they opted for Eli Apple), which is good because there won't be much winning on the field this year even if/when they come to their senses & try to find out if Josh Rosen has any talent rather than being the eighth team to attempt to capture some Fitzmagic.
AFC North
1. Steelers 11-5 (3)
2. Browns 10-6 (5)
3. Ravens 10-6 (6)
4. Bengals 4-12
Last year one of my correct predictions was calling for the Steelers to fall out of the playoffs, but even with the exits of Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell we should be careful not to declare the death of the Roethlisberger-era Steelers. Mike Tomlin's never had a losing season, Roethlisberger still has JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, & breakout candidates Vance McDonald & James Washington to work with, while the defense led the league in sacks last year & addressed it's biggest weakness -- covering the middle of the field -- by trading up for the uber-talented Devin Bush. Even facing the best division in the conference I expect the Steelers to come out on top, the Pearsons should be pleased.
That said, the Browns & Ravens should keep it close. The Dawg Pound finally has something to be excited about as Cleveland went about grabbing two of the Giants best three players (Odell Beckham Jr. & Olivier Vernon) to give Baker Mayfield a legitimate top target & Myles Garrett the perfect pass rushing partner. They also went about upgrading their coaching staff across the board with Freddie Kitchens, Todd Monken (OC), & Steve Wilks (DC). The offensive line is a concern, but if it's solid this team should be ready to rock & roll.
There are reasons to be skeptical of Baltimore. They lost a lot of talent in their front seven, have a lack of proven weapons, & Lamar Jackson was even less accurate than Josh Allen -- dead last, to be exact. I'm not worried about the defense however, & the offense is intriguing. If you have elite defensive backs, & with the addition of Earl Thomas no one has a better group of DBs, & an intelligent coordinator, as the Ravens do in Don Martindale, you can create a pass rush. This should still be one of the five best defenses in the league. On offense they promoted Greg Roman to offensive coordinator, the same position he held in San Francisco during Colin Kaepernick's most successful seasons, & he's had a whole off-season to scheme around Jackson's unique abilities -- look out.
Things are less rosy in Cincinnati. It may have been past time to move on from Marvin Lewis, but I have a suspicion we'll soon realize how underappreciated he was. No hiring, not even Kliff Kingsbury's, felt like more of a reach to find the next Sean McVay than Zac Taylor's. Taylor served under McVay the last two seasons as receivers & then quarterbacks coach. He has zero head coaching experience, & in his two stints as a play caller he led the Dolphins to 17 points a game over five games & the Cincinnati Bearcats to 19 points a game a year after they'd averaged 34. It's not an encouraging resume, & when coupled with A.J. Green & first round pick & starting left tackle Jonah Williams' injuries (Williams is out for the year) this could be a rough season for Andy Dalton (Here's to hoping he can get to the Bears in two years & have an Alex Smith on the Chiefs late career renaissance).
That said, the Browns & Ravens should keep it close. The Dawg Pound finally has something to be excited about as Cleveland went about grabbing two of the Giants best three players (Odell Beckham Jr. & Olivier Vernon) to give Baker Mayfield a legitimate top target & Myles Garrett the perfect pass rushing partner. They also went about upgrading their coaching staff across the board with Freddie Kitchens, Todd Monken (OC), & Steve Wilks (DC). The offensive line is a concern, but if it's solid this team should be ready to rock & roll.
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| A worthy successor. (Baltimore Ravens/Phil Hoffman and AP Photo/Ric Tapia) |
There are reasons to be skeptical of Baltimore. They lost a lot of talent in their front seven, have a lack of proven weapons, & Lamar Jackson was even less accurate than Josh Allen -- dead last, to be exact. I'm not worried about the defense however, & the offense is intriguing. If you have elite defensive backs, & with the addition of Earl Thomas no one has a better group of DBs, & an intelligent coordinator, as the Ravens do in Don Martindale, you can create a pass rush. This should still be one of the five best defenses in the league. On offense they promoted Greg Roman to offensive coordinator, the same position he held in San Francisco during Colin Kaepernick's most successful seasons, & he's had a whole off-season to scheme around Jackson's unique abilities -- look out.
Things are less rosy in Cincinnati. It may have been past time to move on from Marvin Lewis, but I have a suspicion we'll soon realize how underappreciated he was. No hiring, not even Kliff Kingsbury's, felt like more of a reach to find the next Sean McVay than Zac Taylor's. Taylor served under McVay the last two seasons as receivers & then quarterbacks coach. He has zero head coaching experience, & in his two stints as a play caller he led the Dolphins to 17 points a game over five games & the Cincinnati Bearcats to 19 points a game a year after they'd averaged 34. It's not an encouraging resume, & when coupled with A.J. Green & first round pick & starting left tackle Jonah Williams' injuries (Williams is out for the year) this could be a rough season for Andy Dalton (Here's to hoping he can get to the Bears in two years & have an Alex Smith on the Chiefs late career renaissance).
AFC South
1. Jaguars 9-7 (4)
2. Texans 8-8
3. Colts 6-10
4. Titans 5-11
With Andrew Luck out of the picture this may be the division hardest to predict from one to four, but I favor a Jags revival. It may seem like ancient history yet it was only two years ago that Jacksonville was a play away from going to the Super Bowl, & facing the quarterback who's now suiting up for them. Whatever your take on Nick Foles it should be clear he's an upgrade on Blake Bortles, so getting the offense back to merely below average should be possible. And that's all it should take when the defense is primed to once again be the class of the NFL with the addition of pass rusher Josh Allen (the good Josh Allen) in the draft & the expected bounce back from last year's inconsistent play from top corner Jalen Ramsey.
From a long term standpoint all I'll say about the Texans off-season moves is that it really helps to have a GM, something Houston does not have. In the short term though, their recent trades likely improved the team as a tackle capable of holding down the left side is more important than a good but not great pass rusher on a team that already has J.J. Watt. There's a real chance Watson & his diverse set of receivers, led by best in the game DeAndre Hopkins, light up the scoreboard while Watt & co. smother opposing offenses. If that happens they could run away with the division. I worry about the rest of the non-Tunsil offensive line though, & a lack of youth/talent among their corners being exposed by teams with speed on the outside. For the sake of friend of the blog, & recently engaged Texans Video Operations Assistant, Tommy Stoeser let's hope for the former.
Poor Indianapolis. They finally found a brilliant GM & coaching staff to match the talent of Andrew Luck. They gave him an elite offensive line, a creative offensive scheme, & competent defense, but the damage of the Grigson/Pagano era (with the former deserving most of the blame) had already taken its toll & Luck called it quits. The good news is that Jacoby Brissett is among the best backup QBs in the league & the much improved team around him means that, unlike in 2017, this team can still be competitive. The bad news is that competitiveness could mean a middling pick next year without the payoff of the playoffs this year.
What is there to say about the Titans? For three straight seasons & two coaching staffs, they've slightly overachieved their underlying metrics to get to 9-7 & either narrowly missing or sneaking into the playoffs. Marcus Mariota can never capitalize on the potential he showed at Oregon, whether it's because of injuries, a new OC every season, or perhaps just not being that good. The defense is perfectly mediocre & nothing more. This could be the year things are finally different, but if that's true the most likely scenario doesn't feel like Mariota throwing for 25 TDs & Derrick Henry leading the league in rushing so much as the bottom finally falling out & the team having to start over.
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| Nick Foles stares off into a future only he can see. (Getty Images) |
From a long term standpoint all I'll say about the Texans off-season moves is that it really helps to have a GM, something Houston does not have. In the short term though, their recent trades likely improved the team as a tackle capable of holding down the left side is more important than a good but not great pass rusher on a team that already has J.J. Watt. There's a real chance Watson & his diverse set of receivers, led by best in the game DeAndre Hopkins, light up the scoreboard while Watt & co. smother opposing offenses. If that happens they could run away with the division. I worry about the rest of the non-Tunsil offensive line though, & a lack of youth/talent among their corners being exposed by teams with speed on the outside. For the sake of friend of the blog, & recently engaged Texans Video Operations Assistant, Tommy Stoeser let's hope for the former.
Poor Indianapolis. They finally found a brilliant GM & coaching staff to match the talent of Andrew Luck. They gave him an elite offensive line, a creative offensive scheme, & competent defense, but the damage of the Grigson/Pagano era (with the former deserving most of the blame) had already taken its toll & Luck called it quits. The good news is that Jacoby Brissett is among the best backup QBs in the league & the much improved team around him means that, unlike in 2017, this team can still be competitive. The bad news is that competitiveness could mean a middling pick next year without the payoff of the playoffs this year.
What is there to say about the Titans? For three straight seasons & two coaching staffs, they've slightly overachieved their underlying metrics to get to 9-7 & either narrowly missing or sneaking into the playoffs. Marcus Mariota can never capitalize on the potential he showed at Oregon, whether it's because of injuries, a new OC every season, or perhaps just not being that good. The defense is perfectly mediocre & nothing more. This could be the year things are finally different, but if that's true the most likely scenario doesn't feel like Mariota throwing for 25 TDs & Derrick Henry leading the league in rushing so much as the bottom finally falling out & the team having to start over.
AFC West
1. Chiefs 12-4 (2)
2. Chargers 7-9
3. Broncos 7-9
4. Raiders 5-11
Now that the Chiefs have gotten rid of their biggest weakness, a player who didn't understand the concept of offsides, it should be smooth sailing to the Super Bowl! Jokes aside the Chiefs deserve credit for fully embracing amorality and ignoring violence against women & children unless it's caught on tape & released publicly. That's how you win football games! In fairness they're not alone in that general outlook, the Browns were happy to pick up Kareem Hunt even with the video, though you'd like to imagine most teams would care when the victim is a three-year-old. In Kansas City though they only care about winning so Tyreek Hill gets a $54 million contract, & it's all so normalized that announcers will simply gush about his speed the next time Mahomes connects with him on a deep pass & a bunch of bros will high-five because their fantasy team scored 10 points. Priorities and what not. Anyway, Mahomes is really good, Andy Reid knows how to design a gameplan, the running back situation doesn't really matter, & the team's ceiling will depend on whether Spagnuolo, Frank Clark, Tyrann Matthieu, & personal favorite Juan Thornhill, can make the defense respectable.
The Chargers are a fun, talented, team that had one of my favorite drafts picking up DT Jerry Tillery & safety Nasir Adderley. Alas they've already lost star safety Derwin James for at least half the season & starting left tackle Russell Okung for six weeks, because this team is cursed (At least one side of the ball has been bottom five in games lost to injury in four of the last five years). Melvin Gordon's holdout may be less important than either of those injuries, but it hardly helps. Nor does having a coach in Anthony Lynn who's completely missed the memo that being aggressive on fourth & short is a winning strategy. Plus even if Rivers had his LT & starting running back I'd be wary of his ability to match last year, his best season since 2013, when he's staring down turning thirty-eight in December. Last season may have been Rivers last, best, chance to reach that elusive Super Bowl.
I toyed with picking Denver as a surprise playoff team. While everyone else, besides the Dolphins, was desperately grabbing for the next hot young offensive coach the Broncos zagged & got the mastermind behind the Bears behemoth of a defense, 60-year-old Vic Fangio. Over the last five years the Broncos have been the lone team to rank in the top 10 in defensive DVOA every season, add in Fangio & the sky is the limit. Likewise Mike Munchak coming over from the Steelers to coach the offensive line raises the potential of the entire offense, which will likely lean heavily on the run game with Philip Lindsay & Royce Freeman. Of course then I remembered that Joe Flacco is their quarterback, & I returned to reality. Just look at this:
The Chargers are a fun, talented, team that had one of my favorite drafts picking up DT Jerry Tillery & safety Nasir Adderley. Alas they've already lost star safety Derwin James for at least half the season & starting left tackle Russell Okung for six weeks, because this team is cursed (At least one side of the ball has been bottom five in games lost to injury in four of the last five years). Melvin Gordon's holdout may be less important than either of those injuries, but it hardly helps. Nor does having a coach in Anthony Lynn who's completely missed the memo that being aggressive on fourth & short is a winning strategy. Plus even if Rivers had his LT & starting running back I'd be wary of his ability to match last year, his best season since 2013, when he's staring down turning thirty-eight in December. Last season may have been Rivers last, best, chance to reach that elusive Super Bowl.
I toyed with picking Denver as a surprise playoff team. While everyone else, besides the Dolphins, was desperately grabbing for the next hot young offensive coach the Broncos zagged & got the mastermind behind the Bears behemoth of a defense, 60-year-old Vic Fangio. Over the last five years the Broncos have been the lone team to rank in the top 10 in defensive DVOA every season, add in Fangio & the sky is the limit. Likewise Mike Munchak coming over from the Steelers to coach the offensive line raises the potential of the entire offense, which will likely lean heavily on the run game with Philip Lindsay & Royce Freeman. Of course then I remembered that Joe Flacco is their quarterback, & I returned to reality. Just look at this:
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| Flacco is worse than Eli Manning, ouch. (Pro Football Reference) |
Here's the thing about the Oakland Raiders, I didn't adjust their record at all for losing Antonio Brown. I threw the Pats an extra win, but Oakland was always going to suck regardless. Derek Carr seems like a perfectly nice guy, he's not a top 20 quarterback. Jon Gruden isn't the Gruden I'd want as my head coach (not that it's going to help Washington this year). Mike Mayock was a good analyst but his first draft was a disaster. Clelin Ferrell?! He wasn't the best linemen on Clemson, let alone better than Josh Allen or Brian Burns. Running backs worth taking in the first round are rare, Josh Jacobs wasn't one of them. The same goes for safeties who don't excel in coverage & Johnathan Abram. If you're going to suck & trade away players like Khalil Mack you'd better take advantage of the picks you get, this was the opposite of that. The defense is going to be awful, the offense mediocre, & the future doesn't look bright. At least that'll be Las Vegas' problem next year.
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| Expect to keep seeing this look for years to come (Getty Images) |
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
(3) Steelers over (6) Ravens
Another classic hard hitting Steelers/Ravens playoff game goes down to the wire before a late strip sack by T.J. Watt seals the game.
(5) Browns over (4) Jaguars
The last time the Browns won a playoff game Bill Belichick was their coach, & they beat the Patriots. Now they'll get to face Bill & the Pats after overcoming the #1 defense & Nick Foles.
Divisional Round
(1) Patriots over (5) Browns
Cleveland had a fun run, alas the Patriots pull away in the second half as an exhausted Browns pass rush struggles to get pressure on Brady.
(2) Chiefs over (3) Steelers
In years past the Chiefs struggled to come up with enough points to beat the Steelers in the playoffs, that's not a problem anymore.
Conference Championship
(2) Chiefs over (1) Patriots
It took the combined talents of a Hall of Fame head coach, MVP-level QB, & the defensive coordinator who helped stop the undefeated Patriots back in Super Bowl XLII but for the first time the Patriots lose an AFC Championship in Foxborough. The league will never be the same.
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| Find someone who looks at you the way Mahomes looks at Reid. (kansascity.com) |
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