Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can the Panthers prove this fan wrong?

After a disappointing regular season of predictions I rebounded strong last week, starting the playoffs 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall. I'd be angry with Dallas for not covering except that their failure to easily handle the Lions allowed for the one thrilling playoff game of the weekend. In fairness, Baltimore-Pittsburgh was a solid game, the Bengals & Cardinals, however, were such a wreck offensively that they not only bored me to death for a combined 6 hours but they may have actually tricked people into thinking their opponents could win this week (SPOILERS!). This first round continued the horrible run of nationally televised games this season that saw 33 of 54 such games end with a margin of victory of 10 points or greater (That's 61 percent). Is it so much to ask for some drama?! Granted the drama in Dallas got overshadowed by a blown call but even then it was at least something to talk about.*

*What Dallas haters don't want to talk about is that Brandon Pettigrew also committed a penalty on the disputed play. And that even after the refs picked up the flag the Lions were up three with the ball & they should have gone for it facing a fourth and one from the Cowboys 41, or at least not punted 10 yards when Jim Caldwell chickened out, or maybe stopped the Cowboys when they twice converted key fourth downs in the second half, or perhaps completed one of their two (courtesy of Demarcus Lawrence's fumble) game winning drive opportunities. Suffice it to say the Cowboys won the game & the Lions lost it, regardless of the ref's screw up.

Thankfully, there's reason to believe this week's games will prove more entertaining. The two best barometers of a team's quality are point differential and Football Outsider's DVOA. In the eight teams left we have the top seven in point differential & the top six in DVOA, with DVOA less of a fan of the Colts, & the Panthers here thanks to the rest of the NFC South's abhorrence to playing defense & the sadness that is every Ryan Lindley pass. That sort of quality makes blowouts less likely, & the fact that the remaining squads are helmed by five Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, & three others who have all been to Pro Bowls, means that even if a team ends up down multiple scores early their fans need not start downing shots of Fireball less they still be sober for the 4th quarter. And if they're not close... we'll always have next week.

Now on to Saturday's picks... (Home teams in caps)

Ravens (+7) over PATRIOTS

Can Tom Brady escape the Ravens' pass rush?

It's fun to talk about how the Ravens have the Patriots number. How in the last six years they've beaten the Patriots twice in New England during the playoffs, with their one less occurring thanks to a dropped pass in the end zone & a missed field goal, & how Harbaugh & Flacco have Belichick & Brady's number. That's all fun to say, but that doesn't make it true. First of all the idea that the 2010 playoff game matters one iota is silly, NFL teams have so much roster turnover that any game five years in the past is completely irrelevant. Secondly in neither the 2012 or 2013 games did Rob Gronkowski appear,* & in the latter, the one New England lost, top Patriots corner Aqib Talib went out early with an injury. This time round Gronkowski is ready to go & Talib's been replaced with the more robust, & simply better, Darrelle Revis. It also bears mentioning the last time these two teams played, in December of last year, the Patriots blasted the Ravens 41-7 in Baltimore, & the Gronk didn't even suite up in that one either.

*Gronk might not have but both of Baltimore's old Ray's (Lewis & Rice) featured heavily in each of the Patriots-Ravens games, add that to the pile of reasons looking back at those games to predict this one is silly. 

This Ravens offense is vastly superior to last year's version, though, thanks to Joe Flacco's growth as a passer & a gigantic improvement in their run game. The balance is important because the New England defense they face, while not elite in either facet of the game, has no definitive weakness. The Dolphins & Chiefs had a great deal of success on the ground in their wins over the Pats, but despite those games New England still graded out as a just above average run defense & those were two of the best rushing teams in the league. Likewise Green Bay's passing game led them to victory, but they have Aaron Rodgers & even the likes of Peyton Manning couldn't find more than 21 points in Foxborough. Improved though they may be Flacco & the Justin Forsett led run game aren't in the same league, so they'll need to both be productive if the Ravens are to mount drives of consequence. 

What remains worrying for the Ravens is their offensive line health. Left tackle Eugene Monroe should be back but right tackle Rick Wagner is on injured reserve, meaning right guard Marshall Yanda will likely shift over yet again to the outside with rookie John Urschel at guard. They got by Pittsburgh despite those injuries, but the Steelers defense was uncharacteristically terrible this year, a rested Chandler Jones on the outside & the occasional Jamie Collins blitz up the middle could spell trouble today. Revis poses another problem. In his limited time covering Steve Smith in his career he has as many interceptions, two, as Smith does catches. Baltimore rarely utilizes a third receiver, so if Revis takes away Steve it will be up to the other Smith, Torrey, & tight end Owen Daniels* to carry the passing game. Torrey is explosive, drawing a league leading 11 pass interferences for 229 yards, & the Patriots have struggled all season with covering tight ends so those two might be able to do it. Meanwhile Forsett will need to utilize his game breaking speed because the Ravens zone blocking scheme is not ideal for taking on a Patriots defense that has had more trouble dealing with larger, power run, offensive lines.

*Every time I try to write about the Ravens' tight end I end up typing "Owen Wilson." I guess there's only room for one Owen in my life.

When New England's on offense the game simplifies down to three things: the Ravens ability to get pressure on Brady without blitzing, Brady's accuracy throwing deep, & the red zone. It's imperative the Ravens get to Brady, since, ya know, he's Tom Brady & if you don't get after him he's going to destroy you but they must also do so without blitzing. Over the past five years only Aaron Rodgers has a higher QBR than Brady when blitzed, & this year Brady has been markedly better when blitzed, averaging over a yard more per pass play when blitzed. Ravens' defensive coordinator Dean Pees was inventive last week with the rushes he brought, routinely confusing the Steelers offensive line, & in Elvis Dumervil & Terrell Suggs Baltimore has two of the best pass rushers in the league. It's no secret that whoever wins this battle most often will likely be the victor. 

Brady's deep ball isn't quite the shambles some make it out to be but it's surely the weakest part of his game, lucky for the Ravens as their otherwise elite defense has been prone to giving up big passing plays thanks to a host of injuries in their defensive backfield. If the line keeps him upright Brady should find opportunities down the field & it's important he take advantage of them. 

Saying the red zone will be key is, admittedly, an obvious observation, but that doesn't diminish its importance. The Patriots have been the best offense in the NFL since Gronkowski began being used full time after their loss to the Chiefs, but the Ravens have one of the best red zone defenses in the league. What I'm saying is the Patriots are likely to find a way to move the ball down the field, but if the Ravens can hold them to field goals it will be a defensive victory. Haloti Ngata returned from suspension last week looking refreshed, & even without him the Ravens' run defense is stout, but the team has struggled to cover tight ends. Expect Baltimore to double team Gronkowski in the red zone, if not the entire field, leaving opportunity calling for Tim Wright to be a difference maker in this game. 

It's hard to guess who has the advantage on special teams. The Ravens have the league's top punting unit, the Patriots the best kicker, & neither is worse than average in any other facet. If one of them can come up with a big play it would be a coupe for their team.

The Patriots should hardly feel secure coming into this game, but for the first time these two meet in the playoffs with New England having the better health & that will make all the difference.

Patriots 24, Ravens 20

SEAHAWKS (-11) over Panthers

This line is massive. No team has been this big of an underdog in a playoff game since the Vikings were forced to start Joe Webb in Green Bay three years ago. Throw in that the Panthers have won five in a row, & played the Seahawks each of the last three years with Seattle having yet to score more than 16 points, & the Panthers seem like a solid pick to cover. Look a little harder at this game, though, & the opposite seems true.

Carolina may have a five-game winning streak where they've allowed only 59 points, but Seattle has a six-game winning streak in which they've given up an astonishingly low 39 points while covering the spread in every game. And those three games against the Panthers the last few years? All three were played in Carolina, & each time the Seahawks left with a victory. 

OK, enough doom and gloom regarding Carolina's chances, let's look at why the Panthers might have a shot. Even without Greg Hardy the Panthers have sported one of the better pass rushes & Seattle is known to give up their fair share of sacks. They've also been far better in coverage since swapping out a trio of aging vets for Josh Norman & rookies Tre Boston & Bene' Benwikere. They have linebacker extraordinaire Luke Kuechly. On the opposite side of the ball Jonathan Stewart is coming off his third 100-yard performance in his last five games, Cam Newton's thrown seven touchdowns to two interceptions during their win streak (He missed their win against Tampa Bay), & Greg Olsen is one of the best tight ends in the league. Seattle also has mediocre special teams.

Don't count on Luke Kuechly & the Panthers
being able to slow down Marshawn Lynch.

Now back to the bad news. Only five teams gave up more yards per rush than Carolina, no team did better than Seattle's 5.3 yards per run. Carolina's best run stopping defensive linemen, defensive tackle Star Lotululei broke his foot in practice & will miss the game. Seattle's starting center Max Unger, the best offensive linemen on their team, is back from injury. Just to drive that home, Marshawn Lynch & Russell Wilson are going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league without one of that defense's best players. Not coincidentally Outsiders ranks Seattle as the fourth best red zone offense & Carolina as the 31st ranked defense. Outside of Detroit no team had a better run defense than Seattle this year. Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, & Kam Chancellor all still play in the Seahawks' secondary. Carolina's offensive line remains shaky at best, & shaky would be an improvement for their horrendous special teams. 

If Carolina's run defense can avoid being steamrolled they may once again limit the Seahawks to under 20 points, however, even if they do I doubt the offense can muster enough points to change the end result from their previous meetings. 

Seahawks 24, Panthers 10