Sunday's Divisional Picks

Can a hobbled Rodgers lead the Pack past the Cowboys?

Yesterday continued my solid playoff run, improving my record to 5-1 against the spread & 6-0 overall. I even got the margin of victory right in both games, though my over/under skills remain lackluster. Kudos to the Patriots & Ravens for giving us our second great playoff game of the year, with the Patriots becoming the first playoff team to come back from a deficit of 14 or more points twice in the same game. That was a thrilling piece of theater. Anyway, I was out late last night for a friend's 21st birthday, & the Green Bay-Dallas game is about to start, so I'll keep this quick.

On to the picks... (Home teams in caps)

 Cowboys (+5.5) over PACKERS

In the first playoff meeting between these two teams since the legendary "Ice Bowl," which saw Green Bay triumph 21-17 on a Bart Starr score from the one with only seconds to play, & Green Bay comes in 8-0 at home & Dallas arrives 8-0 on the road –– it figures to be another classic.

Tony Romo needs to have a big day for Dallas to win.

Green Bay has struggled all year long stopping the run. They've been better since moving Clay Matthews to the inside, but have remained below average. Obviously that's worrying when facing the leading rusher in the NFL, & I expect the Cowboys to have continued success on the ground today, however, as I pointed out last week*, the Cowboys win & lose on the back of Tony Romo. Dallas' win over Detroit was the first game this year the Cowboys won wherein Romo's QBR was below 60, though he did avoid committing any turnovers, if he plays poorly again this week the Cowboys' season will surely be over. If the Packers' can generate pressure on Romo that may well happen, otherwise, though, Green Bay's biggest weakness in the pass game has been covering #1 wideouts & tight ends –– the two people, in Dez Bryant & Jason Witten, Romo most likes to throw to.

*In eleven wins Romo threw 32 touchdowns & 4 picks, completed 72% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt, & had a QB rating of 125.4 (Unsurprisingly, only Aaron Rodgers was better in wins). In three losses Romo's thrown 2 touchdowns, 5 picks, completed 62% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, & had a QB rating of 69.0 (ESPN's QBR, which runs on a 1 to 100 scale, had him below 20 in all 3 losses). 

The big question with the Packers offense is the health of Aaron Rodgers calf. He'll play, & for the most part should be fine, but he's less likely to go outside the pocket & Green Bay has begun running more of their offense in the pistol formation to lessen the load on his legs. The former could make it easier for the Cowboys pass rush to get after Rodgers, the latter may be a plus though. As Bill Barnwell detailed at Grantland, lining up in the pistol makes it harder for defenses, in comparison to running plays from the shotgun formation, to guess whether the play will be a run or pass. That worked like gangbusters against Detroit's top ranked run defense as Green Bay gained 107 yards on 20 rushes from the pistol. Dallas is below average against the run & pass so the last thing they needed was Green Bay figuring out another way to attack defenses. 

When Dallas is defending the pass they've actually been decent covering #1 wide receivers, though it's difficult to see them shutting down Jordy Nelson, good against tight ends, & excellent at defending third & fourth receivers. That last bit is important because though Randall Cobb is clearly the Packers second best receiver he runs most of his routes from the slot, where Orlando Scandrick –– Dallas' best cover corner & the man most responsible for their strong showing against third & fourth receivers –– will be in wait. If Scandrick can limit Cobb it will be all the more important for rookie Devante Adams to step up. Adams hasn't had more that two catches or twenty yards in the last four games but Dallas has been horrible covering the number two receiver on the outside, so if he's going to bust out of his slump now is the time. 

On special teams Dallas has a decided advantage across the board, save when Micah Hyde is returning punts. If this game comes down to a field goal the confidence of Cowboys & Packers fans will be on polar opposites of the spectrum as Dallas has the most accurate kicker in NFL history in Dan Bailey while Green Bay has the notoriously shaky Mason Crosby. 

Alas, I think it comes down to a field goal. Far be it for me to bet against Aaron Rodgers but I think he finally slips up at home today, which isn't to say he plays poorly but rather finally throws a pick in Green Bay this season (Though, the way most of his interceptions have gone this year the ball will bounce of one of his receivers hands before a Dallas player ever touches it). With a win in the turnover battle, & they need it to win, Dallas could be on their way to Seattle where they were the only team besides the Seahawks to win this year. 

Dallas 34, Green Bay 31

BRONCOS (-9.5) over Colts

In the battle between Colts past & present Andrew Luck will need to
decidedly outplay his predecessor for the Colts to have a chance.

This line has shifted so heavily since yesterday, when it was Denver -7, that I'm almost tempted to take the Colts against the spread. Sadly I'm not sure 9.5 is enough either. For the purposes of streamlining my analysis I'm just going to list which team is better at each position.

Coaches: Denver (If Denver loses today, forget I said this)
Quarterback: Denver (Luck has to significantly outplay Manning for the Colts to win)
Running Back: Denver
Receiver: Denver
Offensive Line: Denver
Front 7: Denver
Secondary: Denver
Kicker: Colts
Punter: Colts
Return Game: Denver 

Let's tally that up &... Oh, it's 8-2 with the Colts only winning the kicking game. That phase of the game could matter if they keep it close, but I doubt that.*

*I'm aware the Colts only lost by 7 at Denver to start the year, I also remember that the Colts were down 21 with 10 minutes with Denver letting up in the final minutes. 

Broncos 31, Colts 20