NFL Wild-Card Picks

How many of these QBs will be moving on this weekend?

Normally at the start of the NFL playoffs I'd talk about what a great season this has been, but has it been all that great this year? Yes, we got to see the greatest catch in human history, but man were most of the prime time games boring. I didn't go back to check but I'm pretty sure 95% of them were blowouts. If that transfers over to the playoffs the NFL will cede its spot atop my sports hierarchy to college football now that that sport finally has its own playoffs.* I wouldn't bet on that though. The NFL always has something whacky happen in the playoffs, whether its Tim Tebow winning a game or Andrew Luck completing an epic comeback that could only come against an Andy Reid coached team. This is going to be fun. OK, Cardinals-Panthers will just be depressing, but everything else has a chance to be great.

*Thank God they do have a playoff. Can you imagine having to watch Bama crush FSU in another sham of a championship courtesy of the BCS?

Before I get to the picks for this weeks game though, let's look back at my preseason predictions and see what I got right & just how many things I got horribly wrong.

What I got right:

• The top two seeds in each conference. Was predicting that New England, Seattle, Denver, & Green Bay would be the best teams during the regular season all that impressive? Maybe not, but this is the second straight year I've got all four teams, & had them in the correct order, that has to at least be worth something.
• The Bengals, Ravens, & Steelers would all be within a game of each other & at least two would make the playoffs. Damn, this isn't that amazing either. Wait, the Bengals & Ravens are the only non-bye playoff teams I got right?! Shit... Let's just move on.
• The Ravens "league worst run offense should benefit greatly from Gary Kubiak's hiring as offensive coordinator." The Ravens improved their yards per carry to 4.5 (1.4 better than last year), finishing 7th in the NFL in that statistic. 
• J.J. Watt will win Defensive Player of the Year. Now that was super easy but, still, I got it right. 
• The Texans will finish with a winning record. Haha! See, some of my more out on a limb predictions did come true. 
• Teams whose win totals I correctly predicted: Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Carolina, & St. Louis. (Total: 6)
• Teams I was one game off on: New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Denver, Oakland, Minnesota, Seattle, & San Francisco (Total: 8)
• So that's 14 out of 32 teams whom I did really well on. Not great, let's hope I do better with my playoff picks.

Why I'm an idiot:

• For the third straight year I said the mediocre team around Andrew Luck would keep the Colts out of the playoffs, for the third straight year I was wrong.
• "Buffalo lost defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to the Browns, safety Jarius Byrd to the Saints, & linebacker Kiko Alonso to injury leaving the strength of the team severely weakened." Buffalo, it turns out, had the 2nd best defense in the NFL. 
• The Giants will be healthier, have one of the best defenses in the NFL, & will win the NFC East. Um... the Giants were once again ravaged by injuries, had one of the 10 worst defenses, & were essentially out of playoff contention at mid-season. Usually I'm not too far off with my Giants predictions, but this year I greatly overestimated my team.
• The Lions & Cowboys will be the two worst teams in the NFC. Wow... Excuse me while I eat crow for the next 12 months.
• Chicago, New Orleans, & San Diego will all win at least 10 games & make the playoffs. There's a chance defense matters in the NFL, perhaps I, & these teams, will remember that next year. 
• "Arizona's losses of Daryl Washington (suspension), Karlos Dansby (free agency), & Darnell Docket (injury) will likely prove fatal to the team's playoff hopes." It seems I forgot my Hogwarts history because Bruce Arians & Todd Bowles are clearly wizards. 
• Teams I was way off of on: Dallas (+7)*, Detroit (+7), Tampa Bay (-6), Chicago (-5), Buffalo (+4), Tennessee (-4), NYG (-4), New Orleans (-4), Arizona (-4), NYJ (-3), Cleveland (+3), Indianapolis (+3), Kansas City (+3), Washington (-3). (Total: 14)

*This denotes how many games a team exceeded, or failed to reach, my prediction, i.e. Buffalo went 9-7 when I had them going 5-11 so they're +4. 

• Huh, I was way off as often as I was right about teams. Guess I'm just an average Joe.

Now on to the picks... (Home team in caps)

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Cardinals

There was a brief period, about two weeks, where I believed in this Cardinals team. They just kept winning every week & had finally earned my trust, naturally that's when Carson Palmer went down & I went back to being a skeptic. Now that Drew Stanton's out as well the team is left with third stringer Ryan Lindley at quarterback, who boasts a sterling 5.5 interceptions for every touchdown he's thrown in his career, I'm afraid there's not a team in the playoffs I'd pick them to beat, not on the road anyway. Still, as previously established, Arians & Bowles are wizards so let's try & figure out how they might work their magic. 

Normally when a team is stuck with a backup QB they'll lean hard on their run game to compensate, however, the Cardinals have struggled to do that most of the season, finishing dead last in yards per run. Since turning over the reigns at running back to 7th round pick Kerwynn Williams though the team has found some success, which is important as Carolina's run defense has been mediocre & the Cardinals will need to keep the Panthers' dangerous pass rush at bay. Still it's hard to imagine the Panthers won't be routinely stacking the line to force Lindley to beat them. The upside for the Cardinals is Arians' has the team throwing more deep passes than any team in the NFL, regardless of who's been at quarterback, so Lindley will have his shots to connect with Arizona's talented group of receivers down field (assuming he has the time to do so). Of course that can also lead to the occasional interception.

So the Panthers have the clear advantage when their defense is on the field, they've held much better offenses in the Falcons & Saints to a combined 13 points in the last month after all, but their own offense has struggled for much of the season & the Cardinals defense is no slouch. The way Carolina's offensive line has played this year it's safe to say Cam Newton's ribs were already sore before his truck accident, & it's not as though Newton's surrounded by weapons either. Jonathan Stewart is solid & Kelvin Benjamin has heaps of talent, if inconsistent hands, but Greg Olsen is the only elite skill player on the team. The good news for the Panthers is Arizona's given up more yards to tight ends than any other team. Part of the reason for that is no team brings 6 or more pass rushers more often than Arizona which, despite Carolina's offensive line, also plays into the Panthers' plans. Most quarterbacks struggle against the blitz, there's a reason Arizona's so fond of bringing it, but the Panthers (Newton & backup Derek Anderson) have been just as affective passing the ball when blitzed. Thus the Cardinals may be best served sitting back, but I'm not sure that's in their DNA.

Ultimately the only way I can see the Cardinals scoring enough points to win this game is by getting a touchdown from their defense or special teams, which may not be as unlikely as you'd think. Ted Ginn Jr. finished 7th in punt return average & according to Football Outsiders the Panthers have the worst punt coverage in the NFL. I'm not banking on it though. 

Panthers 21, Cardinals 13

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS

This is the most interesting game of the weekend, narrowly edging out Dallas/Detroit, because these are the two teams most likely teams to make a dark horse run through the playoffs. Flacco & Harbaugh have already beaten the Patriots in New England (twice) & the Broncos in Denver in the playoffs, while the Steelers have the offensive firepower to take on anyone & a 6-1 record against winning teams (the best in the NFL) to prove it. It also doesn't hurt that "2008-2013 saw 10 of the 14 contests [between the Steelers and Ravens] decided by no more than three points" (Football Outsiders). 

This year's been different though, with the Ravens winning by 20 in week two & the Steelers winning by the same margin in week nine. This partially explains why, according to the current totals on ESPN's Pick Center, 60% of bettors are taking the Steelers –– in both games the victor was at home. Not only that but the Ravens are a less than impressive 1-6 against playoff teams, & their already struggling offense will be on their second week in a row without either of their starting offensive tackles. If Pittsburgh's all-world running back, Le'Veon Bell, wasn't out this line would've jumped another point. 

Bell is out though, & that means the Steelers are left with Dri Archer & Josh Harris (a combined 19 rushes in their NFL careers), & Ben Tate (signed on Tuesday), at running back. Considering the Ravens gave up the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season the Steelers can effectively write off their run game. Luckily for the Steelers the Ravens' weakness is the deep ball, where Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, & Markus Wheaton have excelled –– no team has more passes of over 40 yards this season. The Ravens, who have five corners on IR, have no chance to hold up for long in coverage, making getting pressure on Roethlisberger imperative. Racing towards Big Ben will be the best pass rush in the playoffs, led by Terrell Suggs (12 sacks) & Elvis Dumervil (17), if they can get there in time they may well decide the game.

Of course the Ravens will still be required to score points but even with both tackles out, & Joe Flacco off his game, they can likely keep up thanks to their always elite special teams (John Harbaugh was a special teams coordinator before becoming the Ravens head coach) & a Steelers defense that ranks 30th in defensive DVOA. The Steelers run defense has been average but their pass defense has largely been a disaster, ranking in the bottom five in yards allowed per attempt, passing touchdowns, & opposing QB rating. If they can take advantage of the Baltimore's line injuries they should be able to both limit the Ravens' running game & get to Flacco before he can get the ball out to speedster Torrey Smith, a resurgent Steve Smith, or tight end Owen Daniels. If the Ravens are successful in opening up the top of the Steelers defense that should also open up the running lanes for the explosive Justin Forsett. 

This is a tough game to call but one stat I discovered while researching this game stood out to me. Since 2002 there have been 15 wildcards with a regular season point differential of +100 or more. Those 15 teams went 13-2 in their opening playoff games & the only losses were the Packers 2009 OT loss to the Cardinals & last year's Chiefs team that blew a 28 point lead to the Colts after suffering a slew of in-game injuries. The Ravens have a point differential of +107. I'm not guaranteeing a Ravens win, but I'd be surprised if they don't at least keep it close &, in a close game, I'm OK riding with Outsiders' top ranked red zone defense. 

Baltimore 26, Pittsburgh 24

COLTS (-3.5) over Bengals

Nearly three months ago these two played in Indy & when the dust settled the Bengals were out gained by an unfathomable 371 yards in a 27-0 loss. You may have also noticed one team is quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who's thrown one touchdown to six picks in three playoff games, & the other by Andrew Luck, who's 20-4 record in one score games is bafflingly good. It's not hard to see why two-thirds of the public has their money on the Colts, but the Bengals mustn't be overlooked.

I'll spare you the trouble of having to read any inane argument proposing the Bengals pass offense could have a big game, they're not likely to have much success & that's especially true if A.J. Green's concussion keeps him out. Even if he plays though Vontae Davis is good enough to limit the damage Green can do. The Bengals are actually a reverse of their AFC North brethren from Pittsburgh in that their offense looks to be almost entirely dependent on their run game. Jeremy Hill has been an absolute beast, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, Giovani Bernard remains a dangerous change of pace, & the Colts have been susceptible to being gashed by opposing run games. If Hill and Bernard can keep the Bengals offense in advantageous downs and distances, lessening the weight on Dalton's shoulders, the Bengals will have a good shot at their first playoff win of the century. 

Of course, Andrew Luck will have something to say about that, as will the Colts coaching staff. If that coaching staff continues to think Trent Richardson should be a major part of their running game they'll be significantly hindering their chances at winning. Yes, the last time these two teams played Richardson had the best game of his Colts career, 14 carries for 77 yards, but he's been so ineffective (3.3 yards per carry on the season) that banking on a repeat performance is foolish. The Bengals do have one of the lesser run defenses in the NFL, so the run game should be a major part of the game plan, but the far more productive Daniel Herron (4.5 YPC) should be seeing the majority of the carries.

Getting back to Luck, he had a huge game back in week 7 but the Bengals have one of the best sets of defensive backs in the league so he must be careful not to make any mistakes that could give the Bengals a short field. Those mistakes shouldn't be too difficult to avoid, provided Luck doesn't needlessly press the issue, as the Bengals had the fewest sacks in the league, thus giving him time to find any open receivers. It's there that Richardson might actually be able to contribute. He's no Ahmad Bradshaw but, Richardson has been a solid receiver, & the Bengals have been generous to running backs in the passing game.

I can't imagine the Bengals will be nearly as ineffective as the last time round, they should find decent success running the ball & do a much better job containing the Colts, however, unless they decisively win the turnover battle I see their offense being too limited for them to come out with a victory.

Colts 23, Bengals 17

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions

In the first annual Joe Was Completely Wrong Bowl many are focusing on Romo versus Stafford, unable to believe one of them will actually win a playoff game. Leaving aside Romo's already having a playoff victory under his belt, what they should be excited about is as a real life example of the unstoppable force meeting an immovable object dilemma, or the Cowboys offensive line facing off against the Lions run defense.

I've seen more than a few Cowboys fans, always the most humble bunch, declaring in comment sections that their indestructible offensive line is going to pulverize the Lions & DeMarco Murray will easily gallop for his normal 100+ yards. If Ndamukong Suh's suspension hadn't been repealed I might be inclined to agree, with him in the lineup though? Good luck. According to Outsiders the Lions have the best run defense since the 2000 Ravens, arguably the best defense ever, albeit not quite in their league. I'm not advocating the Cowboys concede the fight, by all means let the battle commence, but my money is on the Lions front seven proving immovable more often than not. Alas, the importance of DeMarco Murray & the running game isn't as important to the Cowboys' chances of victory as many have perceived it to be. That's not to dismiss how good their rushing attack has been, but the Murray for MVP crowd has always been foolish –– this team runs on Tony Romo & the line's ability to protect him. 

In eleven wins Romo threw 32 touchdowns & 4 picks, completed 72% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt, & had a QB rating of 125.4 (Unsurprisingly, only Aaron Rodgers was better in wins). In three losses Romo's thrown 2 touchdowns, 5 picks, completed 62% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, & had a QB rating of 69.0 (ESPN's QBR, which runs on a 1 to 100 scale, had him below 20 in all 3 losses). It doesn't seem like a coincidence that in those losses he was sacked 12 times, compared to a mere 17 in the other eleven games. If the line can protect him Romo is going to shred the other team, especially with the zone he & Dez Bryant are in right now (6 TDs in the last 3 games). The Lions pass rush is mediocre, but the Redskins & 49ers were only marginally better on the year & they still found ways to get to Romo so the Lions have a shot to slow the Cowboys down. God help them if they don't get to him though.

I wish the other side of the ball were just as fascinating, but it's not. These are two mediocre units that are more likely to blow it for their respective teams, be it a bad pick by Stafford or a blown coverage by the Cowboys secondary, than prove to be the savior –– Calvin Johnson, obviously, excluded. The Lions are one of the worst teams at running the football, & they don't pretend otherwise. While the Cowboys have nothing to call home about regarding their run stopping abilities, don't count on Joique Bell or Reggie Bush being player of the game.

If the Lions are going to score it'll be through the air & it's here where this matchup has some intrigue. The Lions have one of the best one-two receiving punches in the league with Megatron & Golden Tate, but no one else on the team has more than 34 catches. Meanwhile the Cowboys have one good corner in Orlando Scandrick, & two mediocre to bad ones in Brandon Carr & Sterling Moore, & when they're in their nickel package (according to Outsiders' charting) Scandrick goes to cover the slot –– leaving the top two wide receivers on the opposing team to be covered by Carr & Moore. This is a defensible strategy against most teams, Scandrick takes away the slot receiver allowing more safety help on the outside, but with Stafford already ignoring his slot receivers it will likely be a waste of Scandrick's time in this game. If the Cowboys adjust to that reality, & leave Scandrick out wide to cover Johnson or Tate, they can further limit Stafford's options & stifle the Lions offense. If they don't they could end up in a shootout. 

Even if this does turn into a shootout the Cowboys will retain the advantage though. Dan Bailey is one of the elite kickers in the game, & despite his reputation, Tony Romo is one of the better 4th quarter passers. The Lions aren't missing two-thirds of their kicks anymore but Matt Prater is no better than average & Matthew Stafford is both 0-17 on the road against teams that finish with a winning record, & 1-17 against winning teams in one possession games.* To be sure, that's not all on him, regardless though, it doesn't fill you with confidence.

*The chart I've linked to does not include the Lions 17-14 loss to Buffalo or their 30-20 loss at Green Bay this season.

Cowboys 31, Lions 20