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| Who would you take? |
*Easily my favorite draft. Hockey's a nonstarter, baseball players don't show up in the league till 3 or 4 years later, & the NFL draft... Listen, I like the NFL draft, but after the first round do you care about who anyone's drafting besides your favorite team (& maybe division rivals)? Do you know who any of the non-quarterbacks are after first round? No & no––unless you're some crazy Mel Kiper wannabe. The NBA draft is primarily made up of guys you know, & they can have a huge &, immediate, impact. Only 5 players are on the court at a time, instead of 11, & they play offense & defense. Not only that but starters & even all-stars are traded during the draft, & they have championship impact. Remember Ray Allen to the Celtics, what about George Hill for Kawhi Leonard? Those were huge trades! And this year we've got Kevin Love hanging out waiting to see if the Wolves are smart enough to trade him now rather than getting nothing next year. It's gonna be so much fun!
The NBA draft has always been a mixed bag for me. In 2009 I whiffed harder than David Kahn, nailing just 4 of the 14 lottery picks, including having DeJuan Blair going to the Pacers at 13 when he actually went 37 to the Spurs. In fairness to me Kahn should've taken Steph Curry like I predicted, & Blair's a better player than actual Pacer pick Tyler Hansbrough.* In 2010 I rebounded, hitting 9 of 14 & beating out every major sports publication (Believe me, I checked). 2011** saw me go a solid 8/14, overrate Derrick Williams & have a better understanding of how good Kawhi Leonard was that a bunch of NBA teams (then again everyone who wasn't a NBA GM seemed to). I skipped 2012, then last year the Cavs went crazy, picking Anthony Bennet 1st, trades were happening all over the place, madness reigned & I ended up a Skip Bayless like 2/14.*** Suffice to say I run pretty hot & cold with the NBA draft, so hopefully this is a bounce back year. Or maybe not... Last year's craziness was a lot of fun & this year has the bonus of the players being drafted actually being good.
*I may also have had Jordan Hill as the third best prospect, ahead of James Harden & Steph Curry, so I'm no GM. Fuck... why would you even read on beyond this point after I told you that? Just know that between Hill & Derrick Williams I've learned to check my Arizona bias.
**The best part of my 2011 predictions––my 5 sleepers: Jimmy Butler, Charles Jenkins, Nikola Mirotic, Norris Cole, & Isaiah Thomas. Butler's an elite defender, Thomas is a future 6th man award winner (Who was the last pick of the draft!), Cole's a solid backup, & Mirotic should be an impact player once he comes over from Europe. If only I'd said Chandler Parsons instead of Charles Jenkins I'd look like a genius.
***I have no idea if Bayless ever makes draft predictions, but if he did I'd imagine they'd be horrible & he'd figure out a way to criticize LeBron James with every pick.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers–Andrew Wiggins
What they will do: Who knows, it's Cleveland! They've had four top 4 picks in the post-LeBron era & Kyrie's the only one who looks like an above average starter. Maybe Bennet still turns it around, but there's basically zero chance he's the best player from that draft. Now, as well know, they would've gone Embiid before his broken foot through everything into chaos but now it's a bit of a mystery. Almost everyone sees it as Parker vs. Wiggins, but they could still go Dante Exum or trade the pick. Ultimately I think they go with potential & defense, they're biggest need, & take Wiggins.
What should they do: If they keep the pick it should be Wiggins or Exum (I don't think it would be crazy to roll the dice on Embiid, but even I'm not ballsy enough to say they should & I have nothing riding on the pick). I've always been a Wiggins supporter & I've become inexplicably taken with Exum, & they're both much better fits than Parker who doesn't help their defense & whose offensive game I don't think would gel with Kyrie's. Considering how little we know with Exum, & the fact Kyrie & Exum both require a great deal of the ball, I'd lean towards Wiggins. That said I'd trade the pick. If Orlando's really offering Afflalo plus the 4th & 12th picks in the draft they're crazy not to do it. Afflalo would be an immediate upgrade at shooting guard, they could take Exum or Embiid at 4 (who could be the two best player in the draft), & add a shooter at 12.* In such a deep draft that's the clear move to me, but Cleveland's brain trust is
*They can't get Afflalo now, but that might actually be to their advantage since he'd rob them of a fair amount of cap space (but LeBron's not coming back either way). I'd try to demand Tobias Harris now, but even if the Magic won't do that I'd probably still take the 4 & 12 or opt for Thaddeus Young & the #3.
2. Milwaukee Bucks–Jabari Parker
What they will do: Take whoever Cleveland doesn't out of Wiggins & Parker. It's really that simple, & in this scenario they get the one they want.
What they should do: Have I mentioned trading down? Besides Orlando, Utah is offering Derrick Favors & the 5 pick, & Philly will give up Thaddeus Young & #3 for the top pick. Will they offer the same for #2? Quite possibly. If they would than I'd take a hard look at all three. If not I'd actually go Exum over Parker. Exum would free up Brandon Knight to play his more natural position at the two without being outsized at the guard positions.
3. Philadelphia 76ers–Dante Exum
What they will do: Choose between Exum & Joel Embiid. Embiid has the greatest potential of anyone in the draft but between his injury concerns & poor fit with Nerlins Noel I think they have to go Exum. That would give them the option to either pair Michael Carter-Williams & Exum in a tall, quick, defensively disruptive backcourt or trade MCW & Thaddeous Young to the Lakers or Kings for another pick in this draft.
What they will do: The last thing I said, especially if they can get Julius Randle at 7 or 8. Besides the Kentucky connection, he & Noel would perfectly compliment each other & I'd rather have Exum than MCW. If Randle's gone I'd still go for it to get Aaron Gordon (pair him with Noel & that defense would be unstoppable) or Vonleh if he falls.
4. Orlando Magic–Noah Vonleh
What they will do: As mentioned before, they're trying to move up at least one spot less they miss out the big two & Exum. If anyone ahead takes Embiid expect them to jump on Exum, otherwise they'll be left with a tough call between Vonleh, Embiid, & Marcus Smart. As good as Embiid is he might not play all year so I think they pass. They supposedly like Smart but they can still get a good point guard at 12, whereas all of the better bigs will be gone by then, so Vonleh's the pick.
What they should do: I understand their temptation to trade up but I'd sit pat. If Exum falls to them great, if not I think they need to go Embiid or Vonleh (In a vacuum I'm not sure I prefer Vonleh to Randle or Gordon but he's the best fit next to Vucevic). I'd go with Embiid, he's too talented to pass up on at this point, but understand why that's unlikely.
5. Utah Jazz–Aaron Gordon
What they will do: Assuming their trade attempt fail most people have them projected to take Vonleh but that's not an option here, so they're left deciding between Randle & Gordon. Randle would certainly provide more offensive punch but Utah, while not being a good team on offense, was the worst defensive team in the NBA so Gordon's ability, & versatility, on that end seem like the pick.
What they should do: This is the one team we've mention in trade talks that might actually be best served by doing so, Favors is good but the two way punch Wiggins could provide would be worth it. That said, it doesn't look like those trade efforts will succeed, so they're likely stuck making this pick. If Embiid falls here I'd take him. It'll take a few years bit if Embiid stays healthy he & Favors could be the best front court in the league. If that doesn't happen they should have their choice of the power forwards in which case Vonleh has the most two way potential, but I didn't see nearly as much of him last year as I did Randle & Gordon who each showed off impressive ability. If Utah could play defense I'd go Randle, if they had more scorning punch I'd take Gordon, but this team has so far to go they may as well take the potential play with Vonleh.
6. Boston Celtics–Joel Embiid
What they will do: If Embiid's here they take him. If he's not & Aaron Gordon is they take him. If they're both gone it's Marcus Smart.
What they should do: If they can pull off a Kevin Love trade obviously they do that. If they can't & Embiid's there they have to take him. If both of those are out the window then I'd trade Rondo for the Kings pick at 8, take Smart here, & hope Gordon's still there at 8 (If not choose between Randle, Garry Harris, Nik Stauskas, & James Young).
7. Los Angeles Lakers–Trade/Julius Randle
What they will do: I know it seems like I'm hedging here but stay with me for a second. If the Lakers keep the pick the choice is between Randle & Smart & I think they go with Randle. They're not going to get Klay Thompson but Thaddeus Young & Michael Carter-Williams are possible. If the Lakers are trying to win now, & it seems like they are, that's the right move. In which case the 76ers have the pick & they take... Julius Randle.
What they should do: Make that trade. I like Randle & Smart more than MCW but what's the point of overpaying Kobe Bryant by $10 million if you're not going to make a run at the playoffs? With MCW & Young they'll at least be in the running. Plus I want the Randle/Noel combo in Philly.
8. Sacramento Kings–Trade/Marcus Smart
What they will do: With the Josh Smith trade falling though they still have some need in the front court, but the most pressing is for shooting. That means McDermott & Stauskas are in play here. However the Kings are also looking for a point guard since Isaiah Thomas, good as he is, remains undersized. That opens the door for Smart who is a far better prospect than the aforementioned shooters. Plus he's big enough to play with Thomas at times. The Kings, though, have shown heavy interest in trading the pick. Their most likely trade partner would be Boston, exchanging the pick for Rondo, & finishing off the Kings' plan of fielding a team with as little shooting as possible. If that happens the Celtics are going to pick... Smart! Isn't it nice how this is all working out?
What they should do: Um... Depends on their plans for Rudy Gay. If they plan on keeping him long term make that trade if the Celtics will do it. If you're going to field a team almost devoid of shooters you'd better have a great passer to make things easier on your offense. If not than take Smart, trade Gay and/or Thomas, for a wing player than can actually shoot or decent power forward & hope Ben McLemore will develop.
9. Charlotte Hornets–Doug McDermott
What they will do: The Hornets are an elite defensive team, with a great low post scorer. What they are not is a good shooting team, ranking 25th in threes made & 27th in three-point percentage. That leaves them with several options. McDermott, Stauskas, Garry Harris & Rodney Hood. McDermott is the only one of those who can possibly play as a stretch four which is important since they may lose Josh McRoberts in free agency. Also he maintains their quota of white guys whose names start with Mc.
What they should do: Not draft McDermott! Does Michael Jordan not remember drafting Adam Morrison? No, McDermott's not going to be that big of a bust. He's a little bigger, a much better shooter, & he doesn't have diabetes or a 7th graders attempt at a mustache. Those are all important. Another thing that's important in basketball is defense. Last season McDermott totaled 8 steals & 5 blocks the entire season. Jordan Bachynski, who is 7'2 260 pounds, managed 12 steals, & Shabazz Napier, who is 7 inches shorter than McDermott, had 13 block. He's not quick or athletic enough to guard small forwards, as evidenced by the embarrassing numbers above, & he'll be punished down low by bigs. He shouldn't be taken in the top 15. They should take any of the other three. Stauskas is the best offensively but also comes with defensive limitations, Harris the best defender but weakest shooter, & Hood somewhat splits the difference. Harris is ultimately the best prospect, but I'd go with Stauskas for the Hornets.
10. Philadelphia 76ers–Nik Stauskas
What they will do: The 76ers have a lot of options here. The three shooters we just talked about, Dario "the next Toni Kukoc" Saric, or more potential laden guys like James Young or Zach LaVine. If Saric weren't playing in Europe the next two years he'd be the pick, since he is I think the 76ers go with a shooter to spread the floor for Exum & Stauskas defense is less of an issue with Nerlens Noel now patrolling the paint in Philadelphia.
What they should do: That's not a bad option. Personally I'd try for the home run with James Young. He was a stud down the stretch for Kentucky & could develop into the perfect number two alongside Exum.
11. Denver Nuggets–Jusuf Nurkic/Trade
What they will do: I had them all slotted for Garry Harris & then they pulled off the Afflalo trade. If they stand pat it's hard for me to see them taking Harris or LaVine now, so the giant Bosnian becomes a likely pick. With that said I think a trade is more likely now. If so Harris becomes the most likely pick here for whomever trades up, though LaVine & Elfrid Payton are also possible.
What they should do: If I'm staying at this pick I'd go with James Young, however a trade may well be preferable. If, say, the Bulls offer the 16 & 19 I'd probably take that offer. Two chances to get a good player is better than one.
12. Orlando Magic–Elfrid Payton
What they will do: If they don't go PG at 4 then they're doing it here. They'll likely have their choice of Payton, Tyler Ennis, & Shabazz Napier. Payton's one issue is the complete lack of a three-point shot, which could be even more problematic considering he'd be sharing the backcourt with Victor Oladipo, but his size & athleticism are dominant & he led the NCAA in free throw rate. He's supposedly dominated most of his workouts & been the one point who's been able to adequately go head to head with Smart (Exum hasn't participated in such workouts). He & Oladipo may not light it up from the outside but they'd be hell to go up against on defense.
What they should do: Drafting a point is the right move, but frankly I'm not sure who I'd take. Ennis has an amazing assist-to-turnover ratio, Shabazz is an absolute bad-ass, & Payton has by far the highest potential. When in doubt why not go for the home run? This pick I'd agree with.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves–Zach LaVine
What they will do: This pick is contingent on a number of other factors. What's going on with the Kevin Love trade talks & who gets taken if the Nuggets move their pick. Since I've got LaVine & Garry Harris still on the board it's a tough call. They're both 3 & D two guards with Harris the safer pick & LaVine having the bigger payoff if he pans out. I expect they'd go with LaVine since he's taller &, if you're getting rid of a franchise player, you may as well aim for the long ball.*
*I know... I know... I've directly or indirectly used home run three times in the last four picks. I'm a lazy writer.
What they should do: Broken record time... James Young! I watched a decent amount of Kentucky, UCLA, & Michigan State this year. Young stood out to me a lot more often than LaVine or Harris.
14. Phoenix Suns–James Young
What they will do: The Suns are either going to for a wing or opt for Adreian Payne, since Channing Frye opted out. A lot of people have T.J. Warren here but I think the Suns would much rather take a capable shooter at this spot. I think it ultimately boils down to Young & Rodney Hood, & at three years younger Young's the pick.
What they should do: Finally! James Young! Hurrah!
My Top 20 Prospects:
1. Dante Exum
2. Andrew Wiggins
3. Joel Embiid
4. Jabari Parker
5. Marcus Smart
6. Julius Randle
7. Aaron Gordon
8. Noah Vonleh
9. Dario Saric
10. James Young
11. Elfrid Payton
12. Garry Harris
13. Tyler Ennis
14. P.J. Hairston
15. Shabazz Nappier
16. Nik Stauskas
17. Jusuf Nurkic
18. Zach LaVine
19. Spencer Dinwiddie
20. Rodney Hood
Stay away from: Doug McDermott & Mitch McGarry, because we've all watched the NBA, these guys aren't making it.
Sleepers: Spencer Dinwiddie, Nikola Jokic, & Bryce Cotton. Dinwiddie would be a first rounder if he hadn't gotten injured last season, Jokic is a potential steal for a team looking for a big late in the first, & Cotton's simply too competitive & too good not to stick somewhere.
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