The Fiesta Bowl & Other, Less Important, New Year's Eve Picks

8 years after the Fiesta Bowl ended in a cheerleader
accepting a marriage proposal will history repeat itself?

I'm going up to Glendale for the Fiesta Bowl, & after that I imagine I'll be drinking* a fair bit, so who knows if I'll have time to write up anything on the New Year's day games, but here's today's picks.

*For the holiday, not the game, & that's especially true if Arizona loses. As Reese Witherspoon once told Paul Rudd in a mediocre romantic comedy, "Never drink to feel better; only drink to feel even better."

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Arizona vs. #20 Boise State

Any Arizona fan feeling confident the team will easily handle the Mountain West champs should remember that the last time the Wildcats played they were left severely humbled. That's not to say the Broncos are going to come out & demolish the Cats like Oregon did, but a reminder that Arizona's #10 ranking still feels a little inflated to this Arizona alum.

Over half of Arizona's games came down to one score, three of them to the final play, & Arizona finished 6-1 in those games. Now it's fun to claim that they accomplished that through grit, toughness, & clutch play, but those cliches aren't just lazy, but untrue. Now the Wildcats pace may have warn some teams out but ultimately one score games come down to luck as much as anything, and while Arizona has been skating by on magic Boise has played only a single one possession game all year (51-46 over Nevada). Part of that is, obviously, playing in a less difficult conference but Boise has handled their business & should not been overlooked.

2014 NFL Preview

Can Seattle become the first team to repeat in 10 years?

I love college football. It's fantastic, & this year there's even a playoff! With that said the highlight of my fall weekends is the Christian, not the Jewish*, Sabbath. In the NFL you actually know who all of the players are. Unless you're a Raiders fan, every season you can talk yourself into believing your team is going to make the playoffs &, after the recent playoff runs of the Giants, Cardinals, & Ravens, that means they've got a chance to win it all! Does it help that my team, the Giants, have won 2 of the last 7 Super Bowls while the Arizona Wildcats have never made a Rose Bowl? Absolutely! But that's exactly my point: The NFL is what people want to believe America is like –– a place where if you plan right & work hard you can lift yourself from the bottom to the top of society –– while college football is what America really is –– a place with a giant divide of haves & have nots where the occasional surprise success story provides the illusion of hope. That's why I prefer the NFL, even with moral questionability of the entire enterprise, so I'm super excited for another season of madness that will surely make many of my following picks look shockingly foolish.**

*If we're being totally honest Judaism has it right. Christianity sold out the Sabbath, & a bunch of other things, for converts.

**But not all of them! Unlike any of ESPN's 36 experts last season I correctly predicted the Panthers to get the 2 seed in the NFC, in addition to predicting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, the Falcons to fall off (though not that drastically), & the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Does it matter than I also had the Giants & Bucs in the playoffs? Yeah... I know it does.

Emmy Preview-Drama: Who Got Snubbed, Who Should/Will Win, & When You Should Drink

Let's see if Emmy voters remember.

The Emmys, the preeminent awards in television, air Monday night at 8p ET / 5p PT* on NBC. Seth Meyers figures to be the best host since Jimmy Kimmel** two years ago if not Conan a whopping eight years ago, but I'm more interested in who will/should win, who got snubbed, & how best to work drinking into the ceremony, so that's where my focus will be. You can read my thoughts on the nominations here, now though let me begin our journey by looking at the comedy categories.

*So for any timezone challenged Arizonans that's 5pm here.
**I like NPH plenty but I'll always take an actual comedian over a song & dance guy. 

Before I get to the drama categories I want to give a quick shout out to Fargo in the movie/miniseries categories. As much as I love Luther & Sherlock, & I'm sure The Normal Heart was moving, Fargo towers over its competition. It was a brilliant 10 episodes that was equal to, or better than, many of the Outstanding Drama nominees. I hope it cleans up, & especially that the unknown Allison Tolman beats out Julia Roberts' turn on The Normal Heart for supporting actress.

The Emmy Preview–Comedy: Who Got Snubbed, Who Should/Will Win, & When You Should Drink

The Emmys, the preeminent awards in television, air Monday night at 8p ET / 5p PT* on NBC. Seth Meyers figures to be the best host since Jimmy Kimmel** two years ago if not Conan a whopping eight years ago, but I'm more interested in who will/should win, who got snubbed, & how best to work drinking into the ceremony, so that's where my focus will be. You can read my thoughts on the nominations here, now though let me begin our journey by looking at the comedy categories.

*So for any timezone challenged Arizonans that's 5pm here.
**I like NPH plenty but I'll always take an actual comedian over a song & dance guy. 

Can Orange Is the New Black become the first TV show not on television to win an Outstanding Series award?

We're Just Getting to the Good Stuff: The Top 20 Movies to See From August Through October

Every film by a McDonagh brother is a must see.

We've come to one of my favorite times of the year for movies. The summer blockbuster season, with all of its overly polished bluster, is coming to a close while Oscar season, & the awards grappling that inevitably comes with it, has yet to descend upon us. This allows the independent films that debuted at Sundance, & elsewhere, a chance to come out & breath. Last year's best* film, Short Term 12, came out during this period. So it should comes as no surprise that half of the 20 films I am about to recommend are independent. Before we get to that though, I'd like to give a few recommendations from the first 7 months of the year.

*It would, of course, be more accurate to call it my favorite film of 2013 as all film criticism is, on some level, subjective. If you were to favor "12 Years a Slave," "Her," "Gravity," or "About Time" I wouldn't take issue with you. Also, "Short Term 12" is currently streaming on Netflix.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier shot to the top of the Marvel catalog with a twisting & turning script that smartly hewed to the issues of the day & a cast in, Evans, Johansson & Anthony Mackie, that was overflowing with chemistry.

The Grand Budapest Hotel is the best comedy to come out this year & one of the better works, in an already storied carrier, by writer/director Wes Anderson. It has a wonderful screwball wit, with enough darkness added to make the action matter & give it the emotional depth that elevates above nearly everything else to come out this year, & Ralph Fiennes is sensational––he likely won't get an Oscar nomination because the Academy long ago abandoned comedies, but he should absolutely win a Golden Globe.

Neighbors edged out 22 Jump Street, & demolished A Million Ways to Die in the West & Sex Tape, for the title of mainstream comedy of the year. Jump Street may have the funniest moment, thanks entirely to Channing Tatum, but Neighbors proved victorious thanks to its strong casting of performers who had not previously been given the comedic roles they deserved. Rose Byrne proved her comedic chops in Bridesmaids but here she gets to go toe to toe with Seth Rogen the entire film & never does she feel out her element. Dave Franco has been elevating bit parts in comedies for half a decade but finally got the chance to shine here. Finally Zac Efron, after years of struggling to make it big as a dramatic actor, came back to the comedy side of things & bested his winning performance in 17 Again.

Obvious Child is the more realistic version of the one night stand scenario from Knocked Up, which is to say it's a romantic comedy that revolves around an abortion. That may immediately turn some off of the movie, but those who aren't bothered by that premise will find a surprisingly sweet movie that allowed Jenny Slate to show she can play much more than Jean-Ralphio's sister.

I may be biased towards Veronica Mars, seeing as I was one of many Kick Starter contributors, but creator Rob Thomas (not of Matchbox 20) gave us Marshmallows a fun little adventure that we could savor, & Kristin Bell a film role she could actually be proud of, while proving that if given the chance there's still much more story to tell in Neptune, California.

Snowpiercer, which can be seen at The Loft in Tucson or On Demand, may have topped The Winter Soldier as the most captivating action film of the year, though that shouldn't bother Chris Evans seeing as he's the lead here as well. Snowpiercer is similar to Raid: Redemption with its characters single minded goal to reach a certain destination, here being the front of a train rather than the top floor of a slum, but with an allegorical bent that makes it far more than an action movie.

One last thing before I get to the list. This list is in no way meant to represent all of the movies worth seeing over the next three months, if it were it would be twice as long. If you want to watch half of the male cast of New Girl pretend to be police officers go for it, I'll probably be in the seat next to you. Want to see Liam Neeson kick ass in a movie with an actual brain for the first time since The Grey? Awesome, me too. What about Denzel going all Man On Fire again? Sounds pretty good, right? Ready for Teen Wolf's Dylan O'Brien to be the next young adult hero sensation? I know I am. Want to see Thomas Middleditch & T.J. Miller of Silicon Valley, Happy Ending's Adam Pally, & ultimate dream woman/Community star Alison Brie in a comedy from the writer of Old School?* You'd be crazy not to. How about Keira Knightley stuck in arrested development & hanging out with Chloë Grace Moretz & Sam Rockwell? Seems like that would be fun. What about Michael Bluth, Liz Lemon, Peter Russo, & Adam Sackler all playing siblings? That's got to be interesting. That's seven movies that didn't make the list & I want to see all of them. So if a movie's not on this list don't take that as my recommending you not see it, rather the films below are movies I very much recommend you see if they even remotely interest you as much as they do me.

*Part of the reason "Search Party" didn't make the list is it's lack of a trailer.

Now on to the top 20 films of the next three months...*

*Click on the name of the film to go to a preview of it.

2014 Emmy Nominations Reaction: They Can't Get Them All Right

All of these people deserved nominations,
 alas only one of the five got one.

Every year I try, & thus far fail, to post all of the people/shows I view as deserving of Emmy nominations. The reason I do this is because I tend to find a fair number of their nominations* lacking. Just a couple of examples being The Wire never landing a major nomination despite being the greatest television show of all time, & I'm hardly the only person with that view, & Nick Offerman not receiving a single nod for his work as Ron Swanson on Parks and Recreation. With the Emmy nominations announced this morning you can be sure I'll be posting my own nominees yet again because some of these... Well, you'll see. Now a quick rundown of the major categories. 

*Their inability to correctly reward the right nominees is a whole nother story. Pour one out for Steve Carell & the entire cast of Mad Men. 

2014 NBA Lottery Mock Draft & Top 20 Prospects

Who would you take?

My favorite draft* in sports is today so it's time to make some more crazy sports predictions (Hopefully more successful than my World Cup ones!). 

*Easily my favorite draft. Hockey's a nonstarter, baseball players don't show up in the league till 3 or 4 years later, & the NFL draft... Listen, I like the NFL draft, but after the first round do you care about who anyone's drafting besides your favorite team (& maybe division rivals)? Do you know who any of the non-quarterbacks are after first round? No & no––unless you're some crazy Mel Kiper wannabe. The NBA draft is primarily made up of guys you know, & they can have a huge &, immediate, impact. Only 5 players are on the court at a time, instead of 11, & they play offense & defense. Not only that but starters & even all-stars are traded during the draft, & they have championship impact. Remember Ray Allen to the Celtics, what about George Hill for Kawhi Leonard? Those were huge trades! And this year we've got Kevin Love hanging out waiting to see if the Wolves are smart enough to trade him now rather than getting nothing next year. It's gonna be so much fun! 

The NBA draft has always been a mixed bag for me. In 2009 I whiffed harder than David Kahn, nailing just 4 of the 14 lottery picks, including having DeJuan Blair going to the Pacers at 13 when he actually went 37 to the Spurs. In fairness to me Kahn should've taken Steph Curry like I predicted, & Blair's a better player than actual Pacer pick Tyler Hansbrough.* In 2010 I rebounded, hitting 9 of 14 & beating out every major sports publication (Believe me, I checked). 2011** saw me go a solid 8/14, overrate Derrick Williams & have a better understanding of how good Kawhi Leonard was that a bunch of NBA teams (then again everyone who wasn't a NBA GM seemed to). I skipped 2012, then last year the Cavs went crazy, picking Anthony Bennet 1st, trades were happening all over the place, madness reigned & I ended up a Skip Bayless like 2/14.*** Suffice to say I run pretty hot & cold with the NBA draft, so hopefully this is a bounce back year. Or maybe not... Last year's craziness was a lot of fun & this year has the bonus of the players being drafted actually being good. 

*I may also have had Jordan Hill as the third best prospect, ahead of James Harden & Steph Curry, so I'm no GM. Fuck... why would you even read on beyond this point after I told you that? Just know that between Hill & Derrick Williams I've learned to check my Arizona bias. 


**The best part of my 2011 predictions––my 5 sleepers: Jimmy Butler, Charles Jenkins, Nikola Mirotic, Norris Cole, & Isaiah Thomas. Butler's an elite defender, Thomas is a future 6th man award winner (Who was the last pick of the draft!), Cole's a solid backup, & Mirotic should be an impact player once he comes over from Europe. If only I'd said Chandler Parsons instead of Charles Jenkins I'd look like a genius. 

***I have no idea if Bayless ever makes draft predictions, but if he did I'd imagine they'd be horrible & he'd figure out a way to criticize LeBron James with every pick.

2014 World Cup: Who Takes Home the Trophy?

Obviously New Zealand won't be winning it all,
as they did in my World Cup 2014, but who will?

Today, after a long four year wait, the World Cup begins yet again so it's time to post the rest of my predictions––both those based on logic (Joseph's) & those based on whim (Joe's). You can see the group play predictions here, & the round of 16 predictions here. First let's recap who's left. 

Joseph's Final 8: Brazil, Colombia, France, Germany, Spain, Uruguay, Argentina, Belgium

Joe's Final 8: "Brasil", England, France, Germany, Chile, Italy, Argentina, Ghana

Now on to the rest of the picks!

2014 World Cup: Round of 16

I've narrowed it down to 16, but who moves on now?

Yesterday I made my picks for who will escape group play in this year's World Cup, you can read those here, today I'm going to pick all of the elimination games. Of course if you read yesterday's piece you know I'm not making entirely straight forward picks. We've got Joseph's picks, which are reality driven, & Joe's picks, which are based on some combination of movies, non-soccer history, & pro-Africa bias. The smart money's on Joseph's picks, but this World Cup will be a lot more fun if Joe turns out to be right. Okay all this writing about my self (selves?) in the third person is starting to freak me out so let's just get to the predictions.

2014 World Cup: Who Gets Out of Group Play

We're now on the brink of the greatest sporting event in the world* so it's time for me to make some predictions! Am I even remotely qualified to make World Cup predictions? Well... I did win the

World Cup in World Cup 2014 on my Xbox with New Zealand, which surely counts for something. Or at least it would if I didn't create the entire team, including a 6'7 goalie. But that's neither here nor there, the important thing is I'm back to making sports predictions. Last year I predicted the Seattle Seahawks would be the best team in football & I don't see why picking the best country at fùtbol should be any more difficult. 

*Or just the biggest tournament involving the one popular sport that requires essentially no equipment, has simple enough rules that people can play it anywhere, & doesn't involve actual tackling so wimps can play it. Now to be sure the first two aren't bad things, it's good to have an accessible game that both rich & poor can play, but it is important to acknowledge the real reasons soccer is the most popular sport in the world as opposed to "because it's the best!" The third, well... when soccer players stop flopping all over the field like they've been shot maybe I'll respect their toughness. Until then give me the other sport that has constant action and a World Cup every four years, because no one can doubt it's played by real men.  Plus this, no soccer team has a pre-game ritual that cool. 

You suck "Brasil."

Haha ok, I don't know much of anything about soccer so I'm going to make two sets of predictions. Joseph is going to make cautious, cerebrally based, forecasts of the results ahead while Joe is going to make wild predictions straight from the gut. Is that too gimmicky? Maybe, but it'll be fun to see if the World Cup is anything like March Madness, where your six-year-old niece beat you this year because she liked the Connecticut mascot. Without further ado let's get to my billion dollar bracket.

NFL Wild Card Picks-Saturday

Can Brees & Payton figure out how to win the
 first road playoff game in Saints history?

You may have noticed, or not since only 5 or 6 people ever read this blog, that Joe's Junk has been on hiatus for 6 months. I wish I had some brilliant excuse for this like, I've been working to fight hunger in Haiti, or, I've been in a coma after diving in front of a car to save a small child (don't worry the kid was fine), but alas those things did not happen. No, the truth is simply that I'm pretty lazy & so the whole blog thing got pushed aside. But now I'm back for the 2014 NFL Playoffs! Wooh!

Now for the first time in 4 years (3 on the blog & 1 on facebook) I failed to type out an NFL preview but I did find the time to post my preseason playoff picks on facebook back in September:

AFC: 1. Denver 2. New England 3. Cincinnati 4. Houston 5. Pittsburgh 6. Kansas City 
NFC: 1. Seattle 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. New York 5. San Francisco 6. Tampa Bay 
AFC Championship: NE over DEN 
NFC Championship: SEA over GB 
Super Bowl: Seattle 27, New England 24

How'd I do? Well for comparisons sake here's a quick breakdown of how this season compared to my past predictions of the regular season:

2009: Playoff Teams-9/12  Division Winners-5/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2010: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-2/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2011: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-4/8  Bye Teams-1/4 

2012: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-3/8  Bye Teams-2/4

2013: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-6/8  Bye Teams-4/4* 

*Interesting tidbit--The AFC vs. NFC divide on playoff teams I've correctly predicted is minimal, I've nailed one more NFC pick, but the contrast in division winners is significant. I've hit on 60% of AFC division winners but only 40% of NFC winners. Tom Brady & Peyton Manning sure have made things easier to figure out over there. 

As you can see I'm certainly no seer, particularly the previous two seasons which were particularly brutal, but 2013 was a nice comeback. In fact, despite my horrid Houston, Tampa, & New York picks, I've bested the majority of experts. Shoot I'd say it was my best year considering I got all four of the bye teams not only correct but in the correct order of finish. I mean who else was telling you Carolina was not only going to win their division but earn a first round bye? Seriously go look at all 36 of ESPN's NFL writers' predictions, not one of them has Carolina even making the playoffs. What about Sports Illustrated's seven experts? Not a single one. Only Football Outsider's projections (which I pay close attention to) had them pegged for a playoff spot, but even then it was as the four seed. So I'm the only person, that I know of, who correctly predicted all four teams on a bye this week. That's not all though. The Carolina pick helped me exceed all 44 of the previous mentioned predictors in choosing division champs & only David Fleming of ESPN was able to correctly predict more total playoff teams than I did. He's the only guy out of all those experts who can claim to have out predicted me.