Emmy Preview-Drama: Who Got Snubbed, Who Should/Will Win, & When You Should Drink

Let's see if Emmy voters remember.

The Emmys, the preeminent awards in television, air Monday night at 8p ET / 5p PT* on NBC. Seth Meyers figures to be the best host since Jimmy Kimmel** two years ago if not Conan a whopping eight years ago, but I'm more interested in who will/should win, who got snubbed, & how best to work drinking into the ceremony, so that's where my focus will be. You can read my thoughts on the nominations here, now though let me begin our journey by looking at the comedy categories.

*So for any timezone challenged Arizonans that's 5pm here.
**I like NPH plenty but I'll always take an actual comedian over a song & dance guy. 

Before I get to the drama categories I want to give a quick shout out to Fargo in the movie/miniseries categories. As much as I love Luther & Sherlock, & I'm sure The Normal Heart was moving, Fargo towers over its competition. It was a brilliant 10 episodes that was equal to, or better than, many of the Outstanding Drama nominees. I hope it cleans up, & especially that the unknown Allison Tolman beats out Julia Roberts' turn on The Normal Heart for supporting actress.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees:

• Jim Carter Downton Abbey
• Josh Charles The Good Wife
• Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones
• Mandy Patinkin Homeland
• Aaron Paul Breaking Bad
• Jon Voight Ray Donovan

Who Should Be Here: There are at least 20 people I'd have been more than happy to see make this list, Carter & Voight would not be among them, but when forced to narrow it down to two actors to replace the previously mentioned mistakes I'd go with Dean Norris of Breaking Bad &... fuck, let's just call it a three way tie between Charles Dance of Game of Thrones & Jack Huston & Michael K. Williams of Boardwalk Empire. Sadly this year was the last chance for the Emmys to acknowledge the work of three of these actors in their respective roles. I mourn their loss.

Who Should Win: Aaron Paul is always incredible, I thought Patinkin should've won last year, & it would be great to see Charles win in his last shot on The Good Wife, but this one belongs to Peter Dinklage. He, deservedly, won three years ago but was even better this year as Tyrion endured his trial, dealt with betrayal, & stood up to all those who belittled him.

Who Will Win: Last year the nominee I thought least likely to win, Bobby Cannavale for Boardwalk Empire, won & while I thought he was good I considered 4 of the other nominees work to be markedly superior. Why'd he win then? Because sometimes people confuse the most acting for the best acting. What I'm saying here is I'm terrified Jon Voight might somehow win this for the combo of playing his character as broadly as possible & for being Jon Voight. With that said it's not something I'm going to predict. Paul is the favorite, Dinklage could return, or Charles might pull off his first win. Ultimately I think Paul & Dinklage have such powerful submission episodes that it's between the two of them & I'll lean towards Peter Dinklage winning his second over Aaron Paul getting his third.

Drink if... Dinklage wins.
Chug if... Charles becomes the third Good Wife cast member to wins.
Take a shot if... Voight wins & the Emmys are a massive failure.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees:

• Christine Baranski The Good Wife
• Joanne  Froggatt Downton Abbey
• Anna Gunn Breaking Bad
• Christina Hendricks Mad Men
• Lena Headey Game of Thrones
• Maggie Smith Downton Abbey

Who Should Be Here: With every drama category I'm hampered by somehow having never caught up on the second season of The Americans. Had I caught up Annet Mahendru would probably be my pick here but, since I haven't I'll go with Bellamy Young on Scandal. Admittedly, after just shitting on Jon Voight for playing everything big, I'm picking someone who often playing things on a massive scale. However I'd point out Young's performance fits perfectly on the dialed up to eleven political soap that Scandal is & Young plays one of the most complicated, & increasingly sympathetic, characters on the show. She would have been a more than deserving nominee.

Who Should Win: Anna Gunn. Chances are if you watch Breaking Bad you're not a fan of Skyler, which I maintain is at least somewhat unfair, but if you're not a fan of the work Gunn's done in the role you're simply a fool. As Skyler has fallen deeper & deeper into the hole that Walter dug the family into Gunn's only gotten better & better & she peaked with last year's "Ozymandias" that many have argued is the best episode in the show's history.

Who Will Win: Maggie Smith won two years, when Hendricks undoubtedly should have been the winner, but it's doubtful Emmy voters will be silly enough to reward her twice for such a slight role. Baranski is on her fifth nomination for her role & most are hailing it as her best season of work so if there's an upset it will likely be her taking home the statue. There won't be an upset though. Anna Gunn is winning.

Drink if... Anna Gunn wins.
Chug if... Baranski surprises.
Take a shot if... Lena Headey wins. Feel free to also substitute a glass of red wine in honor of Cersei Lannister.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series*

*As directing & writing are a one episode achievement, & people tend not to know who the writers & directors are anyway, I'm listing the show & the episode that are nominated for this & Outstanding Writing.

Nominees:

• Boardwalk Empire "Farewell Daddy Blues"
• Breaking Bad "Felina"
• Downton Abbey "Episode One"
• Game of Thrones "The Watchers on the Wall"
• House of Cards "Chapter 14"
• True Detective "Who Goes There"

Who Should Be Here:* I understand why Emmy voters chose to nominate "Felina," it was directed by series creator & showrunner Vince Gilligan, but the final season of Breaking Bad reached the summit of its greatness, in all aspects of the show, in back to back episodes with "To'hajiilee," where Walt is finally arrested by Hank only to end with the shootout cliffhanger, & the aforementioned "Ozymandias," wherein Hank meets his end & Walt loses everyone he's ever cared about. I'd replace Downton Abbey & House of Cards with the work of Michelle MacLaren, who directed 11 episodes of Breaking Bad during its run, & Rian Johnson, writer/director of Looper & two of the upcoming Star Wars sequels.

*I want to clarify to any "Hannibal" fans that I absolutely would've chosen the season 2 finale, "Mizumono", had it been submitted but it was not so my hands were tied.

Who Should Win: True Detective. Seeing as this is a purely episodic reward Cary Joji Fukunaga doesn't get any extra credit for directing all of True Detective's 8 episodes, but he doesn't need it. "Who Goes There" is a master class in directing that is completed with an astounding six minute single take that would impress anyone who isn't Alfonso Cuarón.

Who Will Win: "The Watchers on the Wall" is on a scale far greater than anything else in this category & action film director Gary Marshall helms it expertly so it's in the running. Voters may well want to single out Gilligan for bringing Breaking Bad to such a seamless close so no surprise if he wins. Ultimately though Fukunaga & True Detective seem destined to come out on top.

Drink if... True Detective wins.
Chug, in honor of the Night's Watch, if... Game of Thrones wins.
Take a shot if... House of Cards wins for a second consecutive year.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Nominees:

• Breaking Bad "Felina"
• Breaking Bad "Ozymandias"
• Game of Thrones "The Children"
• House of Cards "Chapter 14"
• True Detective "The Secret Fate of All Life"

Who Should Be Here:  With apologies to Hannibal, Mad Men, Masters of Sex, The Americans, & others I'll opt for another episode of Breaking Bad (though there's at least an episode from each of those shows I'd take over "Felina). As I said earlier, "To'hajiilee" & "Ozymandias" were the height of this season of Breaking Bad so I'd have liked to have seen George Mastras, a writer on every season of Breaking Bad, get his second nomination rather than the grossly overrated House of Cards.

Don't be so scared guys, you're probably gonna win.

Who Should Win: This list of 5 contains one unremarkable premier (Cards), two very good but not quite great series/season finales (BB & Thrones), & two masterpieces of the medium in "Ozymandias" & "The Secret of All Life." The semi-drunken musings of Rust Cohle were the most captivating lines of dialogue over the last year, & TD skillfully bounced between multiple timelines, but the way "Ozymandias" brings about the culmination of all of Walter White's atrocious actions–to the point where it finally begins to dawn on him what a monster he has become–is too much to ignore. Breaking Bad should be the winner here.

Who Will Win: I have to imagine this one goes Breaking Bad, but I'm concerned it will be for Gilligan's finale rather that the episode he himself called “the best episode we ever had or ever will have” before the final two episodes even aired.

Drink if... Breaking Bad wins.
Chug if... True Detective wins & vaults itself into favorite status for the big prize.
Take a shot if... House of Cards wins, also remind yourself to never meet somewhat you believe to be a murderer in the darkest corner of a metro station because that would just be stupid.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees:

• Bryan Cranston Breaking Bad
• Jeff Daniels The Newsroom
• Jon Hamm Mad Men
• Woody Harrelson True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey True Detective
• Kevin Spacey House of Cards

Who Should Be Here: Apologies yet again to The Americans as I'm sure Matthew Rhys was nothing short of exceptional but of the overlooked leads that I did watch none was better than Michael Sheen of Masters of Sex who played a character defined by his unwillingness to open up to others & yet slowly, & deftly, allowed the audience in––as a bonus he, & the show, didn't have to resort to hammily breaking the fourth wall to do so. If that last line wasn't a clue I'd replace Kevin Spacey, along with Jeff Daniels, in favor of Sheen & whichever Hannibal lead you prefer (I like Hugh Dancy's work ever so slightly more than Mads Mikkelsen's). 

Who Should Win: I'd love to see Hamm win because gosh darn it the man should've won by now, be it the year Cranston & Breaking Bad took off (though Kyle Chandler of FNL winning was awesome) or last year when voters all got drunk & agreed to vote for Jeff Daniels, but he wasn't quite at the same level as Cranston & McConaughey. I won't argue one was really better than the other, they were both outstanding, but with Cranston already having 3 Emmys on his mantle my vote goes to Matthew McConaughey.*

*I'm aware McConaughey has an Oscar, but we're talking TV here so I'm sticking with him.

Drink up McConaughey, you're likely
to have plenty to celebrate.

Who Will Win: Let's try not Jeff Daniels this year. Honestly his beating Cranston & Hamm may have been the most baffling Emmy decision ever, that's not even hyperbole. Emmy voters could realize how ridiculous it is than Hamm, or any main cast member on Mad Men, has never won an Emmy this breaks down as Cranston vs. McConaughey (If Emmy voters do ever come to that epiphany it will likely be next year, when Cranston & McConaughey are gone). Cranston was recognized with wins for the first 3 seasons of Breaking Bad before his streak stalled with a, somewhat, understandable loss to Damian Lewis & an entirely perplexing one to Daniels. If Matthew McConaughey, fresh of his Oscar win (You better believe that helps, hadn't given an incredible performance I'd like Cranston's chances to go out on top, but obviously McConaughey did so he's your winner.

Drink if... the McConaissance continues.
Chug if... Hamm's Carell like wait ends.
Take a shot if... it becomes clear Jeff Daniels is blackmailing everyone in television.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees:

• Lizzy Caplan Masters of Sex
• Claire Danes Homeland
• Michelle Dockery Downton Abbey 
• Julianna Margulies The Good Wife 
• Kerry Washington Scandal
• Robin Wright House of Cards

Who Should Be Here: This is the easiest of all the "should be here's." When the best actress on television isn't nominated for two consecutive years it starts to get embarrassing, especially when the Golden Globes did so. If the Golden Globes are making better decisions than you are something's gone terribly wrong. At least TATIANA MASLANY, queen of television & actress of a thousand characters on BBC America's endlessly fun Orphan Black, continues to rack up all the critics awards & honestly I'd rather guest star on Parks and Recreation than get an Emmy anyway.

Who Should Win: For all my hate of House of Cards it's actually a show I generally enjoy & this season no one deserves more credit for that than Robin Wright. The show gave her much more interesting things to do this season & she completely stole the show from Spacey, as Corey Stoll had done the year before, especially when her normally icy character showed signs of melting. She's not my choice though. Lizzy Caplan's Virginia Johnson was the most interesting woman on television. Whenever a show features a character that is constantly raved about by others it takes a big risk, if the acting & writing of the character don't live up to what everyone's saying it completely undermines the character & often the show. Caplan's Johnson, a modern woman stuck in the 1950s*, exceeds whatever others say of her & she completely sells Virginia's attraction to both the work, & gradually Bill Masters.

*I mean this metaphorically. Masters of Sex is not a sci-fi show & Virginia Johnson was a real groundbreaking sex researcher. 

No, we're not kidding, you are the most
successful Party Down alum.

Who Will Win: Despite being the two time defending champ Claire Danes seems unlikely to win, Dockery has no chance, & I dare not believe Caplan has a chance. Wright, as already mentioned, was fantastic & Margulies has been great in the seasons of The Good Wife that I've seen, seasons that most critics claim were inferior to the one she's nominated for here, so they're the favorites. The potential spoiler is Washington who's on, by far, the biggest hit & would be the first African-American actress to win the awards. That history making would've been acceptable, if not ideal, last year but would be a horrid mistake after the last season of Scandal primarily involved Olivia Pope being a crying mess & the show trying desperately to hide Washington's pregnant. Thankfully I expect voters to be smarter than that & opt for Julianna Margulies. 

Drink if... Margulies wins. 
Chug if... Washington wins & I briefly understand how Republicans felt after each Obama victory.
Take a shot if... Dockery wins.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS) 
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• House of Cards (Netflix)
• Mad Men (AMC)
• True Detective (HBO)

Who Should Be Here: I know my constantly mentioning it is just annoying now but The Americans probably belongs here, but having not seen it give me Masters of Sex & Hannibal in place of Cards & Abbey. Masters was a captivating look at how in the dark we were in sexual knowledge 60 years ago & the people who strived, against formidable odds, to change that while Hannibal improved on its excellent first season, delving even further into the darkness of the human soul & ending with possibly the most breathtaking final 15 minutes of any season of television I've seen. 

Who Should Win: Game of Thrones had its best season, Mad Men remains exceptional, True Detective was an enthralling phenomena, but Breaking Bad was the best thing on television. No, I didn't love the finale that let Walter White off the hook a little too much, & I still think season 4 was the true high water mark, but this was one of the two or three greatest television dramas in history near the top of its game. It deserves to go out atop the mountain.

Pretty sure threats won't be necessary
for another Breaking Bad win.

Who Will Win: Either of the HBO shows could prove spoiler, & I'd consider True Detective the more likely of the two, but Emmy voters finally gave in to Breaking Bad's greatness last year & its final 8 episodes were superior to the ones rewarded then. It's always nice when the best show actually wins, & all the more so when it's a swan song. 

Drink If... Breaking Bad wins.
Chug if...  Thrones or Detective wins.
Take a shot if... House of Cards wins.