2014 NFL Preview

Can Seattle become the first team to repeat in 10 years?

I love college football. It's fantastic, & this year there's even a playoff! With that said the highlight of my fall weekends is the Christian, not the Jewish*, Sabbath. In the NFL you actually know who all of the players are. Unless you're a Raiders fan, every season you can talk yourself into believing your team is going to make the playoffs &, after the recent playoff runs of the Giants, Cardinals, & Ravens, that means they've got a chance to win it all! Does it help that my team, the Giants, have won 2 of the last 7 Super Bowls while the Arizona Wildcats have never made a Rose Bowl? Absolutely! But that's exactly my point: The NFL is what people want to believe America is like –– a place where if you plan right & work hard you can lift yourself from the bottom to the top of society –– while college football is what America really is –– a place with a giant divide of haves & have nots where the occasional surprise success story provides the illusion of hope. That's why I prefer the NFL, even with moral questionability of the entire enterprise, so I'm super excited for another season of madness that will surely make many of my following picks look shockingly foolish.**

*If we're being totally honest Judaism has it right. Christianity sold out the Sabbath, & a bunch of other things, for converts.

**But not all of them! Unlike any of ESPN's 36 experts last season I correctly predicted the Panthers to get the 2 seed in the NFC, in addition to predicting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, the Falcons to fall off (though not that drastically), & the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Does it matter than I also had the Giants & Bucs in the playoffs? Yeah... I know it does.

AFC

EAST

1. Patriots (1) 13-3
2. Jets              7-9
3. Dolphins     6-10
4. Bills            5-11

Last year's Patriots were ravaged by injury on defense & in their receiving corps, leaving them overly dependent on rookies, & they still managed to go 12-4 & play in the AFC Championship. This year they figure to be more healthy, give or take Rob "Mr. Glass" Gronkowski, & they added the best corner in all of football. This is going to be the best Patriots team since the 18-1 2007 group. The Jets improved their offense in the offseason, but that only brought them closer to league average in talent, & while they have a stout front 7 their defensive backfield could be a disaster. It'll take another great coaching effort from Rex Ryan to get them to .500 & the shame is if he doesn't do it he'll likely be fired. Miami's offensive line should be less of a disaster than it was last season –– from a racist bullying perspective & an actual football one –– but that doesn't mean it will be good, nor will this team that blew a playoff chance in its last two games last year by losing by a combined 39-7 to the Jets & Bills. As for poor Buffalo they lost defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to the Browns, safety Jarius Byrd to the Saints, & linebacker Kiko Alonso to injury leaving the strength of the team severely weakened while on offense the signing of Kyle Orton has caused a rift between the coaching staff & front office & leaves the status of E.J. Manuel more than a little precarious.

*Some of you will question that fact but the truth is he was targeted only 50 times last season, 15 less than Richard Sherman, 34 less than Patrick Peterson, & 38 less than Joe Haden. In case you think you're clever & Revis had so few targets because he played less know that he led all corners in fewest targets per snap. Also he had a weaker pass rush –– based on sacks per QB drop back –– than either of those three & gave up less yards per pass than Sherman & Peterson who both foolishly claimed to be the best corner on twitter this offseason. 

NORTH

1. Ravens  (3) 10-6
2. Bengals (6)  9-7
3. Steelers        9-7
4. Browns       4-12

Coming off a dramatic Super Bowl victory Baltimore stumbled last season, in part because far too much of their cap space is now occupied by Joe Flacco's contract. In fact all of their struggles could be blamed on the offense as they continued to sport an elite defense & special teams last season. The good news is tight end Dennis Pitta is healthy & they brought in Steve Smith at receiver to help out Flacco, while their league worst run offense should benefit greatly from Gary Kubiak's hiring as offensive coordinator, if not karma. Learning nothing from the Ravens the Bengals gave mediocre QB Andy Dalton a large contract extension that may eventually doom them but for now this remains one of the more talented teams in football. Losing defensive wizard Mike Zimmer to the Vikings may hurt even more than getting Geno Atkins back helps but losing offensive coordinator Jay Gruden may be addition by subtraction as new OC Hue Jackson has a history of leading strong running offenses as opposed to largely ignoring the run game despite having one of the best offensive lines in football. If the Steelers can stay healthy, & OC Todd Haley doesn't sabotage the offense, they could be the class of this division. However, health isn't something to be bet on in the NFL & the Steelers have secretly become the AFC version of the Cowboys as a team stuck in mediocrity due to a poor handling of the salary cap that has sapped their depth. Mike Pettine may be able to improve Cleveland's defense but no matter who's starting at QB the offense will be complete garbage unless Josh Gordon's suspension is altered. If he plays most of the season they could come close to .500 but if he doesn't play a game 4 wins becomes their best case scenario.

SOUTH

1. Texans (4)  9-7
2. Colts          8-8
3. Titans        6-10
4. Jaguars      4-12

The Texans? Yes, the Texans. Last season no team underperformed their Pythagorean expectation more than Houston, meaning that their point differential was significantly better than their win–loss record, pointing to strong improvement this season. They also went an extremely unlucky 2-9 in one possession games & are going from the 10th hardest schedule (based on Football Outsiders DVOA) to a projected easiest in the league. Throw in the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who should be an improvement on the vomit inducing QB play of last year, & the demigod duo of J.J. Watt & Jadeveon Clowney on defense & they should be able to squeak out a division title. Each of the past two years I've said the Colts are a year away from contention & each time they've responded with an 11-5 season. You'd think I'd learn my lesson, but I won't until I actually see a worthy team around Andrew Luck. For now Luck's stuck picking himself off the ground from all the hits his horrible offensive line allows & handing it off to the the 227 pounds of disappointment that is Trent Richardson, while hoping an aging (& suspended for the first 4 games) Robert Mathis can get 19.5 sacks again so the defense doesn't fall apart. Luck's great, & the schedule is easy, so I may be wrong again* but until they get a GM who has a clue** I'm of little faith. If Jake Locker stays healthy the Titans offense under Ken Whisenhunt may be good enough to take the division but we're talking about a guy who's never played more than 11 games in a season & on the other side of the ball a bad defense is transforming from a 4-3 to a 3-4 & doing so without their best corner, Alterraun Verner, who left for the Bucs. I like Gus Bradley as a coach & think the Jaguars defense will make some strides this season. I like Blake Bortles & think he'll be a successful NFL QB. The thing is I also like their decision not to start Bortles immediately because even in the NFL's most pathetic division the Jags don't have the talent base to compete for the playoffs so they're better of not rushing Bortles into action & threatening his, & the team's, future when the present is already lost.

 *Seeing as the Colts are the AFC team I most strongly support I sincerely hope history repeats itself.
**I want there to be no doubt I always thought the Trent Richardson trade was dumb.

West

1. Broncos  (2) 13-3
2. Chargers (5) 11-5
3. Chiefs           6-10
4. Raiders         2-14

The Broncos are really good. Losing Eric Decker & Knowshon Moreno shouldn't matter as I see no drop-off in the combo of Emmanuel Sanders & Montee Ball. On defense they're clearly better with the additions of Aquib Talib, DeMarcus Ware (Wooh! He's not on the Cowboys!), & T.J. Ward. If half of their schedule wasn't the Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, & NFC West I'd be inclined to give them 14 or 15 wins but as is they'll be 13-3 again. The Chargers offense last years was a thing of beauty & with Malcom Floyd back from injury, & Donald Brown providing running back depth, there's little reason to believe that won't be the case again. The defense was what held them back last year (They were dead last in defensive  DVOA) & while average may still be out of reach they did play better down the stretch last season & Brandon Flowers is a significant upgrade at corner. If Peyton Manning were to miss just a few games San Diego could well leapfrog Denver. Teams don't normally jump 9 games in the standings like Kansas City did last season, but when they do they tend to regress toward the mean pretty heavily the following season. This is especially true if the team doesn't have a very good quarterback. Despite what Madden 15* might think Alex Smith is no more than average, while the defense lost its best corner in the aforementioned Flowers & the o-line its best interior linemen in Geoff Schwartz. KC was also the healthiest team in the NFL in 2013 so unless that inexplicably repeats they're headed for a heap of trouble even Jamaal Charles can't outrun. The Raiders... This will once again, not be your season (Even with the addition of my all-time favorite Giant Justin Tuck), & don't be surprised if you're starting another rookie QB next season.

*Smith's 89 overall rating is better than Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Eli Manning, RG3, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, & many others.

NFC

East

1. Giants (4)  11-5
2. Eagles (6)  10-6
3. Red...*        7-9
4. Cowboys    5-11

*Polls consistently show most Native Americans are not offended by the Redskins nickname, & some predominantly Native American schools use the name (though I don't think I need to explain there's a difference between their using it & a rich white man using it for profit), so I'm not one to get overly worked up about the name but do I think they should change it? Yes, I do. I'm not sure what the tipping point should be for when something officially becomes racist/offensive, after all everything seems to offend someone, but when you've got some Native Americans arguing with a white billionaire, with a less than sterling record on human decency, about what's offensive to Native Americans I know who I'm going to side with. It also doesn't hurt that the smartest people in the country are against it as well.Am I being a complete homer by picking the Giants? Quite possibly, but let me lay out my case. First & foremost the Giants were the most injured* team in Football Outsiders' database, finishing with the most games lost on offense & the 2nd most on defense. So they're guaranteed to be healthier. Their schedule gets much easier (Hooray AFC South!). With the additions of Dominique Rodgers-Cromarties, Walter Thurmond III, Quintin Demps & the return of Stevie Brown the Giants have one of the deepest groups of defensive backs which should elevate the defense to among the best in the league. On offense Eli Manning is moving from the deep throwing, & possibly outdated, offense of Kevin Gilbride to Ben McAdoo's west coast scheme. You know, kind of like the transition Philip Rivers & the Chargers went through last year. The Eagles had no such injury luck, suffering fewer injuries than everyone but the Chiefs, which is one reason I don't see them improving on last season's record. Another is the loss of Desean Jackson who, for all of his problems, could pop the top off a defense like few others. A third is Nick Foles, who I do believe in, will inevitably throw more than two interceptions, & a fourth is a defense I don't trust. With that said Chip Kelly is clearly one of the smartest minds in football, a healthy Jeremy Maclin is a big boost, & there is no backfield more dynamic than LeSean McCoy & Darren Sproles. As for Washington I don't trust Jay Gruden as a head coach, & one questions the team's karma, but this was one of the most underachieving teams of last year (2-6 in one possession games) so improvement seems bound to happen. Despite preseason struggles** I expect RG3 to play much better another year removed from his injury & accompanied by a full set of offensive weapons. If I'm right about that, & the defense is better than I expect, this could be a playoff team. You can believe my pessimistic view of the Cowboys is driven by hatred but you'd be wrong, mostly. The offense is talented but there's very little depth. If any one of Romo, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, or Jason Witten goes down the offense could struggle, pass happy coordinator Scott Linehan won't help an offense that needs to be more balance, & if the offense isn't firing off at 100% the season is over because with DeMarcus Ware & Jason Hatcher gone in free agency, & Sean Lee out for the year, the historically bad defense may see their records wiped out by this year's team. Not to mention no team had better fumble luck last year as the Cowboys fell on 6 more fumbles than the odds would expect them to, by simply reverting to the mean the Cowboys defense would be that... much... worse.

*The Colts were the 2nd most injured, meaning that there's a chance God hates me & even greater odds that my Colts pick is wrong.

**In all but the rarest of cases, i.e. Kurt Warner beating out Matt Leinart in 2008, the preseason does not matter at all.

NORTH

1. Packers (2) 12-4
2. Bears    (4)  10-6
3. Vikings       6-10
4. Lions          4-12

Every year since 2003 at least one team that missed the playoffs the year before has earned a first round bye (That's why I picked the Panthers last year). I thought long & hard about taking the Bears but ultimately decided that the Packers were better & that as an 8-7-1 team that never should've made the playoffs after Rodgers got hurt maybe they essentially meet the criteria of a team that shoots up the standings to become one of the NFL's elite. Or maybe I'm just being a pussy this year & the Falcons are going 13-3. Regardless I wouldn't get two worked up over that week one loss. Seattle's defense is especially designed to stop teams like the Packers, unless/until the Packers play them again they have little to worry about –– provided their tackles don't keep getting hurt –– & should be on their way to another division title. Marc Trestman may well be an offensive genius, the Bears have a gauntlet of giant receivers, & they got Matt Forte insurance by drafting the best back of the 2014 class in Ka'Deem Cary, so that side of the ball is taken care of. On defense the Bears went from among the league's best in 2012 to near the bottom in 2013 but that was with an injury ravaged defense & without new additions Lamar Houston & Jared Allen on the defensive line. Expect improvement by the defense to more than offset a more difficult 2014 schedule. The Vikings did three things I loved over the off-season. They hired defensive guru Mike Zimmer who was overdue for a head coaching job. They drafted Teddy Bridgewater who is easily my favorite QB taken in the last 2 drafts. Finally, they hired my good friend Tommy Stoesser to their video staff! Yes, you can now consider me a Vikings fan. Not enough of a fan to put them in the playoffs or anything, Matt Cassel is the QB after all & their pass D could well be horrible again, but this is a team moving strongly in the right direction. A team not moving in the right direction, why that would be the Lions! Remember when I said the Ravens offense was what held them back last year? Guess who was the offensive coordinator for that team, none other than new Lions coach Jim "I'm in a Functioning Coma" Caldwell!* Further after Matthew Stafford threw only 2 touchdowns to 5 over a season ending 4 game losing streak, in which he faced just one playoff team, there have to once again be questions about whether a guy who barely functions making his second read can be a franchise quarterback. Throw in a much tougher schedule & less than impressive defense/special teams & bottom of the division it is.

*Is Jim Caldwell's body monotonously going through daily life while his mind is stuck in a situation similar to Chloë Grace Moretz' latest film? I wouldn't rule it out.

SOUTH

1. Saints (3) 11-5
2. Falcons     8-8
3. Bucs         8-8
4. Panthers   7-9

OK, I'll try not to drone on with this one. The Saints are a little thin across the board but they've made the playoffs four straight years with Sean Payton coaching them & that Drew Brees guy is still there. Losing Darren Sproles hurts but Brandin Cooks may make up for that & then some. The defense, among the 10 best last year, adds elite safety Jarius Byrd. If they can lock up home-field they may well reach the Super Bowl. The Falcons were ravaged by injuries last year on offense & with a healthy Julio Jones & Roddy White the team should be able to compete in shootouts again as Matt Ryan tries to escape being the most underrated QB in the NFL (give or take Romo). And shootouts it will be because the defense was already going to be bad before Sean Weatherspoon was lost for the season. Tampa may have lost Darelle Revis but Alterraun Verner is a good corner & a great fit for Lovie Smith's defense, a defense in Tampa that should be very good. The switch from Greg Schiano, among the worst coaches in the NFL, to a guy who once took Rex Grossman to a Super Bowl in Smith should be light & day. The key will be if Josh McCown is truly the late blooming revelation he was last season or if that was all a Marc Trestman illusion. The Panthers... Hamstrung by the salary cap thanks to the previous administration they lost much of their secondary & all of their receiving corps. That'll hurt but it won't be a death knell unless Cam Newton gets sidelined. If that happens "Riverboat" Ron could have the worst team in the NFC on his hands.

WEST

1. Seahawks (1) 13-3
2. 49ers               9-7
3. Cardinals        7-9
4. Rams              6-10

Seattle was the best team to win the Super Bowl since the 2004 New England Patriots. They had easily the best defense in the league & one of the premiere pass defenses in the league's history. The defense won't be better this season, but the offense could be. It likely will be. It might be among the league's best. That might sound scary to you, & it should. If Percy Harvin somehow manages to stay healthy & Russell Wilson is as good as I expect this could be a 14 to 15 win team & if they get to play at CenturyLink throughout the playoffs again... It's over. If the 49ers make the playoffs again, in this body slam of a division & with all of the injuries & suspensions they have on defense, it will be impressive. If they win the division it will be a true testament to Jim Harbaugh's coaching ability & the way Colin Kaepernick will surely have come along as a QB. If Crabtree, Davis, & Boldin can all be healthy Kaepernick should have his best season yet & he'll need to be as the defense isn't likely to be its elite self until at least midway through the season. Arizona's losses of Daryl Washington (suspension), Karlos Dansby (free agency), & Darnell Docket (injury) will likely prove fatal to the team's playoff hopes. Still, Calais Campbell & Patrick Peterson will keep the defense at least average while a better o-line, an increased role for Andre Ellington, & the addition of rookie wideout John Brown mean the offense should be more lively. As Bill Barwell has pointed out the drop off from Sam Bradford to Shaun Hill may be minimal, it's what happens if Hill gets hurt that should terrify the people of St. Louis. If Hill goes down the offense may literally be engulfed in fire as God provides mercy for all of us that we may not witness such an abomination on the field. Brian Schottenheimer has already proven he doesn't know how to utilize Tavon Austin & the rest of that offense is nothing but running backs. That'll be OK if the defense can hold opponents to under 14 points a game but as good as their defensive line is it will need to be truly amazing to make up for the offense & the defensive backfield. 

AWARDS

MVP: It will be a close race between the four elite quarterbacks but by earning the 1 seed in the AFC Tom Brady will edge out Rodgers, Peyton, & Brees.

Coach of the Year: Taking the Texans from the first pick to the playoffs will earn Bill O'Brien the win over Coughlin, Carrol, Fox, & Belichick.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees will put up the gaudiest passing stats to beat out the other QBs & LeSean McCoy.

Defensive Player of the Year: With his team back in contention J. J. Watt will be impossible to ignore even as Revis, JPP, & Earl Thomas have great seasons.

Offensive ROY: Brees isn't going to put all those stats up on his own, Brandin Cooks could well be in for a 1,000 yards & 8 touchdowns. Circumstance could provide Bortles or Manziel with a shot as well.

Defensive ROY: Likewise Watt will actually have help this year in the form of Jedaveon Clowney. Darqueze Dennard will be also shine on a good team while Khalil Mack will impress on a horrible one. 

Comeback Player: That Aaron Rodgers guy is pretty good, he could win this.

Playoffs

Wildcard Round:

AFC

#3 Baltimore over #6 Cincinnati 23-17

The Bengals season ends as it began, with a closely fought loss to the revived Ravens.

#5 Chargers over #4 Texans 27-14

While you should normally beware a home dog, especially in the playoffs, that worry proves to be without base here as the Chargers once again over match a division winner with a shaky QB.

NFC

#3 New Orleans over #6 Philadelphia 31-24

Philly finds their season ending at the hands of the Saints for a second straight season as Brees/Payton in a dome proves too much to handle.

#5 Chicago over #4 New York 26-20

Saving me the trouble of watching the Seahawks demolish the Giants for the third time in two seasons the Bears edge out the G-Men with a late touchdown run by Ka'Deem Carey.

Divisional Round:

AFC

#1 New England over #5 San Diego 34-24

Avenging a regular season loss the Patriots demolish the Chargers defense on their way to a fourth straight AFC Championship.

#2 Denver over #3 Baltimore 28-20

Rahim Moore doesn't blow an end game coverage this time & Denver heads toward a rematch of last year's AFC title game, only this time in Foxborough.

NFC

#1 Seattle over #5 Chicago 27-13

Chicago's offense struggles to get anything going against Seattle's overbearing defense.

#3 New Orleans over #2 Green Bay 37-35

Despite the cold these two offenses light up the scoreboard & the Saints come out with the victory after a last second field goal, leaving Packers fans amazed another playoff game has slipped through their fingers. 

Championship Round:

AFC

#1 New England over #2 Denver 27-24

Peyton Manning remains flummoxed by the Patriots in New England as a late Devin McCourty interception seals the deal for the Patriots, & allows me not to feel stupid for picking the Patriots to make the Super Bowl for 4 straight years (It worked the first time!). 

NFC

#1 Seattle over #3 New Orleans 30-17

Seattle becomes the first team since the 03-04 Patriots to reach consecutive Super Bowls as they limit the Saints explosive offense & Percy Harvin breaks off a number of big plays.

SUPER BOWL XLIX

This New England team proves much more ready for the Seahawks than last year's Broncos as the Patriots pound the ball into the Seattle defense in long, time consuming drives & their improved defense proves difficult to penetrate as Revis picks off an early Wilson pass. Losing at the half to his former team Pete Carrol puts the game firmly in Wilson's hands & he answers the call. He brings them within a field goal early in the 4th & after the Patriots offense stalls following a Gronkowski injury he leads Seattle to the game winning score. 

Seahawks 24, New England 20

MVP: Russell Wilson