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| 8 years after the Fiesta Bowl ended in a cheerleader accepting a marriage proposal will history repeat itself? |
*For the holiday, not the game, & that's especially true if Arizona loses. As Reese Witherspoon once told Paul Rudd in a mediocre romantic comedy, "Never drink to feel better; only drink to feel even better."
Fiesta Bowl: #10 Arizona vs. #20 Boise State
Any Arizona fan feeling confident the team will easily handle the Mountain West champs should remember that the last time the Wildcats played they were left severely humbled. That's not to say the Broncos are going to come out & demolish the Cats like Oregon did, but a reminder that Arizona's #10 ranking still feels a little inflated to this Arizona alum.
Over half of Arizona's games came down to one score, three of them to the final play, & Arizona finished 6-1 in those games. Now it's fun to claim that they accomplished that through grit, toughness, & clutch play, but those cliches aren't just lazy, but untrue. Now the Wildcats pace may have warn some teams out but ultimately one score games come down to luck as much as anything, and while Arizona has been skating by on magic Boise has played only a single one possession game all year (51-46 over Nevada). Part of that is, obviously, playing in a less difficult conference but Boise has handled their business & should not been overlooked.
So the game will be close, but who will actually win? That will come down to two, actually three, things. The first is turnovers. It's boring to say turnovers will be a major factor because that's true in 90% of games however in Boise's case it's especially accurate. In their two losses they committed eleven turnovers. That's no misprint, they turned it over four times against Ole Miss & an astounding seven versus Air Force. In their five point win against Nevada, they had another three turnovers. They never committed more than two in any other game & won them all comfortably. If the Wildcats can harass Senior QB Grant Hedrick he's likely to make a mistake (13 interceptions on the year) but if Boise avoids shooting themselves in the foot Arizona will struggle to keep up.
The other factor? The run game. Arizona was out rushed five times all year, those five games? Their three losses & the two games (Cal & Washington) they absolutely should have lost. Anu Solomon has been good, especially for a freshman, but he still misses a fair amount of his reads & when the defense doesn't have to respect the run game he struggles. The only touchdown drive he managed in six quarters against UCLA & Oregon, the second time, was aided by multiple Bruin penalties. It is imperative for Arizona to establish the run. Likewise the Broncos cannot be allowed to run freely less long drives tire out an Arizona defense that lacks depth.
At the start of this season I, optimistically, pegged Arizona for eight wins, & they now have ten. No matter what happens, barring a PAC-12 Championship like embarrassment, this season is a resounding success. That may be a good thing, seeing as Boise has a history of coming up big in the Fiesta Bowl*, but far be it for me to bet against Scooby Wright's ability to take the ball way from the other team.
Arizona 34, Boise 30
*Is the 2007 Fiesta Bowl my favorite non-Giants Super Bowl game ever? Yes. Is that link also my favorite youtube clip? The tears streaming down my face say, "You're damn fucking right it is." Chris Peterson, Jared Zabransky, Ian Johnson, & Matt Kearney forever!
Peach Bowl: #9 Ole Miss vs. #6 TCU
This could be titled the "what might have been bowl." Ole Miss was in field goal range against LSU when Bo Wallace forced a ball into double coverage & their loss to Mississippi State was the result of star receiver Laquon Treadwell breaking his leg on his way into the end zone & fumbling. Undefeated, & with Treadwell still around, it's hard to imagine their 30-0 loss to Arkansas would've played out as poorly & they may well be in the playoff. As for TCU they were famously ranked third the week before the playoff ultimately controversially dropping three spots the next week, which is to say nothing of their blowing a 21 point fourth quarter lead against Baylor. Despite these disappointments neither team should be able to fall back on the "we were too depressed to care" excuse –– most notably used by Alabama fans whenever they lose a bowl game ––as both teams exceeded expectations.
Instead we'll see a fantastic battle between the Horned Frog's #2 scoring offense against Rebels' #1 scoring defense. In such games it often seems clever to predict the less heralded units will ultimately decide the game, but I don't see that here. The Baylor meltdown withstanding TCU's defense has been very good, & Bo Wallace is no Bryce Petty, so if TCU can manage 30 points, as they have in every game this year, they should come out on top (Ole Miss is 0-2 when giving up more than 21 points).
TCU 31, Ole Miss 24
Orange Bowl: #7 Mississippi State vs. #12 Georgia Tech
I feel less sure about this one being entertaining in the fourth quarter as the first two games, but if you enjoy many, many, many touchdowns I'm confident you'll enjoy this one. Dak Prescott & MSU have score 30+ points against every team they've played that hasn't had a defense in the top ten in points allowed, which could be trouble for a Georgia Tech squad that's allowed 31 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Yellow Jackets offense may be even more impressive however, finishing second in rushing yards in the & pegged by Football Outsiders as the best offense in all the NCAA.
So sit back & enjoy the offense, but if you're an SEC hater don't expect to be pleased by the final outcome because even after facing Florida State in the ACC Championship I don't think Georgia Tech has seen a team quite as good as Mississippi State.
MSU 41, GT 31
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