AFC
AFC East
1. Patriots 12-4 (1)
2. Jets 6-10
3. Dolphins 5-11
4. Bills 3-13
There are definitely questions about the talent level on this Patriots team (Chris Hogan is there #1 receiver for the first four weeks!), but they still have the best coach & QB, & the easiest schedule -- that's good enough for a 1 seed. Sam Darnold gives the Jets some liveliness on offense that they haven't had since... Chad Pennington? Couple that with Jamal Adams & Trumaine Johnson giving Todd Bowles the type of DBs to fully run his blitz heavy scheme & the Jets aren't a team to be overlooked. I like Adam Gase but there just isn't much to love about this Miami team. They jettisoned a lot of their elite talent & they're not exactly the deepest team either, it's gonna be a long season. Then again, nothing will be as brutal as this Bills season. Tyrod Taylor carried them to the playoffs for the first time this century last, . so naturally they ditched him for pick machine Nathan Peterman & Josh Allen, the least accurate QB in this draft class. I'm sure that'll work out.
AFC North
1. Bengals 10-6 (4)
2. Steelers 9-7
3. Ravens 8-8
4. Browns 4-12
The Bengals? I know, never bet on Andy Dalton & Marvin Lewis, but bear with me for a second. Geno Atkins leads one of the most fearsome defensive lines in the league, throw in William Jackson III & some solid defensive backs & this could be an elite defense. Dalton may not drive fear into anyone but they've improved the offensive line & the Red Rifle is working with the best set of skill position players he's ever had. Pittsburgh still has as much talent as anyone, but I don't trust them. Le'Veon Bell's holdout is going to hurt, the defense never looked the same last year after Ryan Shazier's injury, & Ben Roethlisberger seems due for either an injury or a drop off. I could be underestimating Baltimore. They have an elite defense, they've added legitimate receivers & pass catching tight ends & if Flacco doesn't play well Lamar Jackson will take over. Fuck, maybe I should've taken them instead of the Bengals. Nah, nah, let's stick with it. Last year the Browns were a 4 win team that won zero games because of horrible coaching, this year they're an 8 win team that will win 4. Hopefully next year they'll move on from Hue Jackson & Greg Williams & start competing in this division.
AFC South
1. Texans 10-6 (3)
2. Titans 10-6 (4)
3. Jaguars 9-7
4. Colts 6-10
Every year a team goes from worst to first in their division, this year it's the Texans. The return of Watson means the offense will be dangerous again, while having Watt & Mercilus back will allow the defense to once again be among the league's elite. It may take Tennessee a little while to settle in to their new coaching, but once they get going they'll be dangerous. Going from Mike Mularkey's 90's offense to Matt LaFleur's 21st century scheme should lead to Marcus Mariota's best season, while Mike Vabrel & defensive coordinator Dean Pees should take full advantage of the defensive talent. The Jaguars will still be good but if their defense drops from the best in the league to the fifth or sixth best I'm not sure Bortles & the offense can pick up the slack. Having Andrew Luck back will obviously be a boon to the Colts, but their defense is a mess & this is no longer the worst division in the NFL.
AFC West
1. Chargers 11-5 (2)
2. Chiefs 10-6 (6)
3. Broncos 7-9
4. Raiders 4-12
There's a chance the Chargers are legitimately cursed, their injuries won't stop & they'll miss every clutch field goal all season. I'm going to bet that won't happen & one of the most talented teams in the AFC will live up to their potential. There will undoubtedly be growing pains for Pat Mahomes but when he's on his game the Chiefs will have as explosive an offense as any in the league. The Broncos' combination of Von Miller & Bradley Chubb is going to cause opposing offenses a lot of trouble, & Case Keenum will improve the offense but that's a low bar -- this is still going to be a mediocre at best offense & that will be their undoing. Lol the Raiders... The first big move of the Jon Gruden era was getting rid of the best player on the team & I don't expect the rest of this season to be any better. Enjoy the worst defense in the league Jon.
NFC
NFC East
1. Eagles 11-5 (3)
2. Washington 7-9
3. Cowboys 6-10
4. Giants 6-10
Carson Wentz missing games/being rusty may cost the Eagles a first round bye, but they're still one of the deepest teams in the NFL & easily the class of this division. Going from Kirk Cousins to Alex Smith shouldn't be much of a change, thus Washington's record shouldn't be much of a change either. Dallas seemed like they might be able to overcome the worst receiving corp in the league with their running game, but with Travis Frederick out indefinitely & the rest of the o-line banged up this offense is going to struggle, which isn't great when you have a mediocre defense. With (much) better coaching & injury luck the Giants should be consistently competitive, but between Eli, the offensive line, & the pass rush there are too many questions on this team.
NFC North
1. Packers 12-4 (2)
2. Vikings 11-5 (4)
3. Bears 7-9
4. Lions 6-10
Green Bay is back! With Rodgers back, some decent running backs, two of the three best rookie corners, & Mike Pettine replacing Dom Capers as DC, this is the most complete Packers team in years. While I have the Vikings in second place they could actually be better than last season with Cousins replacing the overachieving Keenum & Dalvin Cook healthy. The addition of Khalil Mack gives Chicago a scary defense, & between the coaching changes & additions at receiver Mitch Trubisky will actually have a chance to succeed. I still don't believe in him. Detroit's offense will be fine with the always good Stafford leading the way, however I think Matt Patricia was a bad hire & that defense is going to be a disaster.
NFC South
1. Falcons 11-5 (4)
2. Saints 10-6
3. Panthers 7-9
4. Buccaneers 3-13
I feel less great about taking the Falcons now than I did 3 days ago, but that has more to do with Keanu Neal being out for the season than anything that happened in the game. I'm sticking with it though, at some point that offense has to figure it out in the red zone & even without Neal there's enough talent on the defense to take the division. The Saints offense will still be elite, obviously, but some defensive regression will cost them a playoff birth. Carolina's skill position players are as good as they've ever been, & their front sevens remains ferocious, but their offensive line & defensive backs will weaken both units. Of the teams that I expect to be trash the Bucs are the one's I'd be least surprised to prove me wrong. They're loaded at receiver & tight end, & they strengthened their defensive line, but having people to throw to matters only so much if your QBs aren't good & while they won't be the worst defense in the league they'll still be far from good.
NFC West
1. Rams 13-3 (1)
2. 49ers 10-6 (6)
3. Seahawks 8-8
4. Cardinals 4-12
The Rams were good last season, then they loaded up on elite players & they look to be the kings of the regular season. This might be a year early on San Francisco, but there's going to a surprise team in the NFC so I'm good with rolling with Jimmy G & Kyle Shanahan. I like the Steve Wilks hire, I like the Rosen pick, but I don't expect either to pay off this season. Even with David Johnson back the offense is going to struggle, & while Wilks was a good DC going from James Betcher's 3-4 system to Wilks 4-3 will take some adjusting.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Coach: Kyle Shanahan
OPOY: Tom Brady
DPOY: Von Miller
OROY: Saquan Barkley
OROY: Saquan Barkley
DROY: Bradley Chubb
Comeback: JJ Watt
Playoffs
Wildcard Round
(3) Texans over (6) Chiefs
In the battle of young QBs the one with the better defense backing him up wins.
(5) Titans over (4) Bengals
I picked the Bengals to win their division, but I'm not crazy.
I picked the Bengals to win their division, but I'm not crazy.
(3) Eagles over (6) 49ers
Yeah, I don't think this game would be close.
(4) Falcons over (5) Vikings
(4) Falcons over (5) Vikings
The only opening round game between two Super Bowl contenders goes down to the wire, but a late Cousins turnover seals it.
Divisional Round
(5) Titans over (1) Patriots
In the Belichick/Brady era the Patriots are 12-9 in the playoffs against teams they played during the regular season, that'll be 12-10 after former Patriot Mike Vabrel's team takes them down.
(2) Chargers over (3) Texans
The Texans weak offensive line will be their undoing against Joey Bose & Melvin Ingram.
(4) Falcons over (1) Rams
In a repeat of last year the Falcons speedy defense slows down the Rams attack & comes away with a road victory.
(3) Eagles over (2) Packers
Another heartbreaking Packers loss potentially (hopefully) marks the end of the Mike McCarthy era.
Another heartbreaking Packers loss potentially (hopefully) marks the end of the Mike McCarthy era.
Championship Round
(2) Chargers over (5) Titans
Philip Rivers finally follows in the footsteps of his fellow 2004 1st round QBs & takes his team to the Super Bowl.
(4) Falcons over (3) Eagles
(4) Falcons over (3) Eagles
The third time's the charm for the Falcons as they finally get a win in Philadelphia.
Super Bowl
In a battle between two franchises without a championship, & two very good QBs often blasted for not coming through in the clutch, the team that's been there recently comes out on top, becoming the first team to win a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Falcons 24, Chargers 20
Falcons 24, Chargers 20
MVP: Matt Ryan
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