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| The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly: which will we see from Flacco? |
Woohoo! 6-0! To hell with modesty. I’ve never picked the first 6 games of the playoffs correctly before, & my perfection may well end today, so I’m going to savor this for a moment. Alright, enough of that. Besides I’m a more pedestrian 4-2 against the spread so hopefully any advice you’ve taken from my picks has been used to make bets with your friends rather than your bookie (Because I assume if you’re reading this you’re an addictive gambler, as all good football fans are). Anyway today I put my surprising streak of near omnipotence to the test, & oh what a test it will be.
Texans (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Ravens won this same matchup by 15 points, in a game in which they lost the turnover battle 2-0 & the Texans still had Matt Schaub at quarterback rather than a rookie 5th round pick. So obviously I must be taking the Texans to merely cover, wrong. I’ve got the Texans winning this game outright & here’s 5 reasons why:
1. Andre Johnson didn’t play in that first game, & Andre Johnson is really good.
2. T.J. Yates against the Ravens D is a scary thought, but do you feel any better about Flacco against the Texans? I don’t.
3. The Ravens have an exceptional pass defense however, according to Football Outsiders, they’re below average against play-action, & who mind you runs more play-actions, & does so more effectively, than anyone else? That’s right, the Texans.
4. Again according to Football Outsiders numbers the Ravens have the 30th ranked special teams, ranking below average in every category (surprising since Harbaugh’s previous job was as a special teams coordinator). In a game between two elite defenses you don’t happen to think special teams will matter do you?
5. In the last 6 years at least one bye team has lost their opening game. Both bye teams won yesterday. Who seems more likely to come out off their game & get eliminated, the Ravens or the Packers? That’s what I thought.
I like the Texans to follow last week’s gameplan against another AFC North opponent. On offense run, run, & run the ball some more before utilizing the play-action & asking Yates to only make a few plays. Then wait for the other team to make mistakes (hello Flacco!), & run the ball some more to put the game on ice. The Ravens D will make it tough, but I trust the Texans to get it done.
Houston 20, Baltimore 16
Houston 20, Baltimore 16
Before moving on to the Packers/Giants game it bears mentioning that Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin’s 21-year-old son Michael’s body was found submerged in the Fox River in Oshkosh, Wisconsin last weekend (To read more about Joe Philbin and his family click here). Philbin will not call the game this week and one hopes his absence will not affect the outcome of the game either way, however that is of minimal concern in this situation. Once again we our reminded that some things are far more important than the game of football and one of those things is family. So I ask you to keep Michael, Joe and his wife Diane, and rest of the Philbins in your thoughts and prayers as well as cherish the family you have. We should always remember that life is fleeting so spend as much of it as you can with those you love.
Giants (+7.5) over PACKERS
I know more Packers fans than fans of any other team (save maybe the Cowboys, but fuck them) so let me start out with my defense of this pick against charges of homerism (I am a Giants fan in case any reader is unaware) or that I am disrespecting the Packers. First I picked the Packers to win it all last year, & I’m grateful they proved me right. I had them ranked as the second best team in the NFL at the start of the season (I had New Orleans ahead) & I absolutely believe Aaron Rodgers is currently the best QB in the NFL as well as the MVP (Also I love Charles Woodson). So please leave the, “You’re disrespecting us!” charges at home.
The facts are the Giants played Green Bay almost dead evenly in their first game & now they’re being spotted 7.5 points (though the venue has changed from MetLife to Lambeau) against the worst pass defense in history (an NFL record 4, 796 yards allowed), a defense that managed only 29 sacks (tied for 27th in the league). So yes, I expect this game to be close. As for who actually wins… that will likely come down to exactly what everyone keeps saying: pressure on the quarterback. & turnovers.
I’ve already mentioned that Green Bay has been horrendous at pressuring opposing QBs this year & in the first game between these two they lived up to it getting only 1 sack & 3 hits on Manning on 43 drop backs. If they can get pressure on Eli & force him of his game this has the potential to prove me wrong & become a route. The Giants, on the other hand, have their revered defensive front that recorded 48 sacks this season (3rd in the NFL) & has averaged 5 a game during the Giants current 3 game win streak. In their game against Green Bay however they got to Rodgers only twice & he had a number of key scrambles. The Giants must simultaneously pressure & contain Rodgers in this game, no easy feat.
The second key is turnovers. In the first game the Giants committed 2 (including an interception returned for a touchdown by Clay Matthews) to the Packers 1, & this ultimately proved the difference in the game. In fact the ability to force turnovers has had an even greater effect on the outcome of Packers’ games than most teams. Green Bay has won 21 of their last 23 games & the two losses just so happened to be the only two times the Pack failed to force a turnover. Remarkably the Packers haven’t won a game in which they failed to force a turnover since December 2005 (in contrast in their lone loss this season, to the Chiefs, Green Bay did not turn the ball over either). This is not to say that if the Giants don’t turn the ball over they’re guaranteed victory, but it may well be necessary for them to have a chance in a game in which their margin of error is so small.
Ultimately I expect this game to come down to the wire just as the last one did, & for the result to be the same-a win for the road team.
New York 34, Green Bay 31
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