 |
| Is Doug Pederson the best coach in the NFC? (Jeff Fusco) |
NFC Preview
NFC East
1. Eagles 13-3 (1)
2. Cowboys 8-8
3. Giants 6-10
4. Washington 4-12
Last year Philadelphia lost more games due to injury, including five by Wentz, than any other team in the NFL. They made the playoffs & if not for a single Alshon Jeffery drop they could've made the NFC Championship. With Foles in Jacksonville their margin for error is smaller, however if Wentz stays healthy there may not me a more loaded team. With the return of DeSean Jackson no team can switch more effectively between 11 & 12 personnel (three wide receivers to two tight tends), first round pick Andre Dillard gives them key depth at offensive tackle, & their defensive line rotation remains the envy of the league. Corner is the only position that isn't an obvious strength, yet when compared to the injury decimated unit that finished out last year it'll be hard to complain about. Throw in head coach Doug Pederson & defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz as the best coaching combo outside New England & the Eagles are the team to fear in the NFC.
No team has such simultaneously great arguments for being better & worse than the Cowboys. Unless you have Tom Brady, year to year there is no consistency in winning one score games. With Dallas going 8-2 last year in such games we'd expect a decline. Likewise their Pythagorean expectation, the number of wins we'd expect them to have based on point differential, was 8.4 last year so they were really more like an 8 win team that got luckym so again we'd expect a decline. At the same time there's real reason to expect them to be in the upper echelon of the NFC. Their schedule was easy last year, but it might be even more of a cakewalk this season, & while a team that improved as much as they did defensively (25th to 9th in Football Outsiders' DVOA) would normally be expected to regress the fact that they have the youngest defense in the league could offset that. However, the biggest reason for optimism is the offense. Center Travis Frederick is back after missing all of last season, Amari Cooper will be there the entire year, & Michael Gallup is no longer a rookie. Perhaps most importantly though QB coach, & winningest college QB ever, Kellen Moore has been promoted to offensive coordinator & taken over play calling duties. If he can liven up the offense from the staid version we saw from Scott Linehan the last few years it could make a world of difference. Ultimately I expect the Cowboys to be a better team than last year, just with worse luck.
 |
| If the Cowboys are to stave off regression Kellen Moore will be key. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News) |
I understand why many people have the Giants ranked as one of their worst teams. A team that one five games last year traded away two of its three best players & the guy left over is a running back. Eli Manning hasn't been good for three seasons. The defense has no proven pass rushers, for the millionth straight season (seventh in reality) New York is bereft of talent at linebacker, & if first round pick Deandre Baker doesn't play well the corners could be bad too. Yet their underlying metrics are the reverse of Dallas, suggesting room for improvement. No team lost more one score games than the Giants eight (they won four), & they underachieved their Pythagorean expectation by a league leading two games. Football Outsiders had them ranked as, literally, the most average team in the league & better than anyone else in the East last season, making their 5-11 record misleading. The additions of Kevin Zeitler & Mike Remmers mean the offensive line could actually be a strength, giving Saquon Barkley actual holes to run through, when Golden Tate returns the offensive weapons will be solid & James Bettcher should find a way to create pressure on the defensive side. This won't be a good team, & will likely take a step back whenever Daniel Jones takes over, but they shouldn't be a disaster either.
Speaking of disasters, let's talk about Washington. If not for the sheer dumb luck of Dwayne Haskins falling to them in the draft there'd be little reason to have any hope for this franchise. Case Keenum was bad enough last year that Denver thought Joe Flacco would be an upgrade & Haskins, for all his potential, doesn't look ready to start. Trent Williams, their best offensive player & the only reason they could possibly have a functional line, is refusing to play for them anymore, & their receivers are entirely unproven. The front seven is talented but anyone banking on the defense to carry them should keep in mind that they were 20th in DVOA last year despite being the healthiest defense in the league. If I didn't think Jay Gruden was a solid coach I'd have lopped off another win. Of course he'll probably be gone next year so this might not even be rock bottom.
NFC North
Packers 11-5 (3)
Vikings 11-5 (5)
Bears 7-9
Lions 6-10
 |
| Adrian Amos is key to reviving the Packers defense. |
Even when they had Mike McCarthy, a coach I always had issues with because of his poor game management, I bought into the Packers every season because Aaron Rodgers is really good. Now that they've replaced him with Mike LaFleur, one of the few offensive minded coach hirings that didn't feel like a reach, I'm all in. Well, that & the massive talent upgrade on defense. Mike Pettine's a good defensive coordinator however he couldn't get much to work last season with a lack of pass rush talent & an inexperienced secondary. So in free agency Green Bay went out & grabbed Preston & Za'Darius Smith to enliven the rush, & Adrian Amos, the most underrated safety in the league, to clean up on the back end. In the draft they further bolstered both groups with the physically gifted Rashan Gary on the edge, & heat seeking missile/safety Darnell Savage. Throw in Jaire Alexander being even better in his second season & this defense should be massively improved. That makes them one of the better teams in the NFC & if the offense can fully click, with Rodgers buying into the play calls & Aaron Jones actually getting the ball, they could be the best.
With an elite defense & an upgrade at QB Minnesota entered last year with expectations of a Super Bowl, needless to say they came away supremely disappointed. The defense largely held up their end of the bargain, the offense was the problem. I'm less convinced than Mike Zimmer that the problem was too much passing, so much as Case Keenum had an incredible fluke of a season in 2017 (aided by Mike Shurmur's play calling) & that Kirk Cousins, while a much better quarterback on average, was unlikely to match it (Also, the loss of Shurmur & bad offensive line play). The good news is that the Vikings are dedicated to giving Cousins the best possible chance to succeed, & that meant bringing in Gary Kubiak as an offensive adviser to implement his outside zone running scheme (which will please Zimmer) & a heavy dose of play-action (which pleases Cousins & people who like points). I don't expect the Vikings to suddenly be an elite offense, but above average should be just fine in getting them back to the playoffs.
Chicago had an amazing season last year, & if not for an errant kick it could've been even better. Bears fans should hold onto those memories (sans kick) this season. The defense should still be very good, as seen on Thursday, however even a minor drop off from best in the league to fifth or sixth could have major ramifications on their fortunes -- especially since it's hard to trust the offense. Matt Nagy & the Bears front office have done just about everything they could to give Mitch Trubisky a chance to succeed, from varied formations to confuse defenses to a solid line & exciting group of young play makers, I just don't think it's going to happen. It's not like they should throw in the towel because he had an awful night on Thursday, he could still prove me wrong over the course of this season, but last year already provided a lot of room for doubt. If this season goes the way I suspect the Bears should look to see if they can pry away a solid veteran from a rebuilding team, say Andy Dalton, & continue competing while searching once again for their QB of the future.
Going from back to back 9-7 seasons to 6-10 in your first season under a new head coach is not what you want, yet just as the Lions were consistently average under Jim Caldwell I expect them to be consistently below average with Matt Patricia. Now Detroit isn't hopeless, they made a number of solid signings to improve their talent level on both sides of the ball, most notably by bringing in Trey Flowers, & Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, & Kerryon Johnson isn't a bad trio to build around on offense. The ceiling still feels stuck at 9-7 though, & unlikely to be reached with this coaching staff. Patricia's defenses in New England were never exceptional, as Nick Foles was more than happy to show, & the Pats showed marked improvement under Brian Flores last season, as Jared Goff can attest to. I don't trust him to fix the defense & by bringing in Darrell Bevel to run the office it looks like they're dedicated to a ground & pound style that doesn't make much sense when you have a capable QB. Add him to the long list of Patriots assistants who failed away from Foxborough.
NFC South
Panthers 11-5 (2)
Falcons 9-7
Saints 9-7
Bucs 7-9
 |
| Any Panthers rebound will have a lot to do with these two. (Fansided) |
Over the last seven seasons the Panthers have alternated between winning & losing seasons, with each winning season totaling at least 11 wins. Last year the Panthers won 7, so let's not fight history. Beyond that bizarre fact there are actual reasons to believe in Carolina. Last season they were 6-2 with an offense that was humming along nicely before a shoulder injury ruined Cam Newton's ability to throw deep & tanked their season. Newton hurt his ankle in the preseason but is ready to play & if he can stay healthy he has a plethora of weapons to utilize from do everything back Christian McCaffrey to young speedsters DJ Moore & Curtis Samuel, & the ever solid Greg Olsen. Meanwhile, after a rare misfire of a season, the defense has reloaded with Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, Brian Burns, & Tre Boston. This is one of the more well rounded teams in the NFL.
My Super Bowl pick last year Atlanta instead enjoyed a season immediately doomed by significant injuries to their two most important defenders in Deion Jones & Keanu Neal. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, & the offense kept things afloat but the defense was too much of a disaster to overcome. This understandably led to the firing of defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel, however OC Steve Sarkisian's dismissal seemed more like scapegoating, & I have no idea why they fired special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong after that unit had another solidly above average season. The mass firings were oddly panicky for a team who'd been successful the previous two seasons & been undone by injuries last year. All of their new hires are qualified though, & presumably Jones & Neal won't both go down again, so the offense should continue to be very good & the defense will get back to being bad instead of horrid. That should have the Falcons back in playoff contention, even if I have them coming up short.
In thirteen of the last sixteen seasons a top two seed from the previous season has failed to make the playoffs, & in one of the three exceptions Carolina won their division the following year by going 7-8-1. At least one really good team falls off every year, last season it was Pittsburgh & Minnesota, this year it's New Orleans. I don't expect it to be dramatic, they'll still be good, they'll just slip up here & there & lose close games that they won the last two seasons (5-1 last season). Brees will still be good, he'll just be top ten good instead of top three. Kamara & Michael Thomas will both be awesome, but if either gets hurt there are question marks about who steps up. The defense won't be quite as healthy & could slip back toward league average, while their division is among the toughest in the league. It's not even necessarily the end of the Brees era, at least I hope not as last year's NFC title game would just end up looming all the larger.
My belief that Tampa Bay will be the best of all the last place teams comes down to two things, their defense has to be better & coaching. The Bucs have had the worst defense by DVOA the last two years, & while they cut Gerald McCoy & lost Kwon Alexander (free agency) & Jason Pierre-Paul (injury) there's evidence that they should improve this season. Last year their defense lost more games to injury than any team since Football Outsiders began tracking it, & as ESPN's Bill Barnwell notes, "the Bucs allowed 5.91 points per red zone possession in 2018. That's the second-worst mark for any team in any season since 2001." Both injuries & red zone defense (unless you're the Patriots) tend to be fairly random from year to year, so that's significant improvement right there (Also fifth overall pick Devin White should be an improvement on the overrated Alexander). Coaching looms even larger. Whether it was as the interim coach in Indianapolis or head coach in Arizona, Bruce Arians has proven he gets the most out of his teams with his aggressive style. On offense that should suit Jameis Winston & the explosive receiving corps perfectly, while Todd Bowles knows how to maximize talent on defense, & Keith Armstrong should get a perennially bad special teams unit up to par. It won't be easy, & there will be games where they get blown out, but the Bucs are going to be better, & pretty damn fun to watch.
NFC West
49ers 9-7 (6)
Seahawks 8-8
Cardinals 4-12
There's a real chance I'm wrong about the Saints being the surprise team to fall off & it's the Rams instead (or they both do). Los Angeles went 6-1 in one score games, exceeded their expected record by 2.1 games, had a defense overly reliant on forcing turnovers, are replacing two offensive line starters, & Todd Gurley's health seems questionable. They're going to be worse, but I like them to hold on because I trust Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp is back, Darrell Henderson is my favorite running back in this rookie class, Wade Phillips is a defensive genius, & Aaron Donald is the best football player on the planet. Also, their division isn't quite as tough as the South.
The 49ers! Last year I jumped on the bandwagon & called for them to get a wild card. This year I'm doing the same, though there's a lot more room on the wagon this time around. Here's the biggest reason why I'm in this year: turnover margin. Last year the 49ers had a turnover differential of -25, that's seven worse than anyone else & thirteen worse than the next team after that. Over the last ten years only four other teams have a margin worse than -20, the 2012 Chiefs & Eagles, 2015 Cowboys, & 2017 Browns. Those teams improved their margin by an average of 35(!) turnovers & their win total by an average of nearly 8, only the Browns missed the playoffs & they won zero games the year before. That's a small sample size, but since 1989 teams with a -20 or worse differential have improved by 24 turnovers & over 4 wins on average. Couple that with the 49ers blowing an unconscionable four fourth quarter leads last year, having Jimmy G instead of the Mullens/Beathard combo, & the addition of Dee Ford & Nick Bosa on the edge & nine wins is more than doable.
 |
| Jimmy G is a beautiful man, but can he lead the 49ers to the playoffs? (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group) |
Every year I want to pick Seattle to do well because I love Russell Wilson. Yeah, he was in the Entourage movie but that's forgivable when you play the game as exceptionally & excitingly as he does, & he just seems like an overall good dude. Alas, the Seahawks seem determined to utilize him as little as possible & failed to give him receiving help. No team, outside of the Ravens, ran more on first & second down. This might be fine if Seattle was still a team with an elite defense & inexperienced quarterback, but now the reverse is true. The secondary is inexperienced & they have an elite QB, so as much as I love Chris Carson & Rashaad Penny it might behoove Seattle to try & score points efficiently rather than run clock. Of course passing is harder when Tyler Lockett is the only proven receiver, though perhaps the sentient muscle known as DK Metcalf can help out. No one is better at coaching defensive backs than Pete Carroll, they got a steal in the Clowney trade, & Bobby Wagner is the best linebacker in football so the defense should be OK, but that won't be enough if they continue to shackle Russell Wilson & the rest of the offense.
Arizona is not an offense we need worry about being held back. Any talk of Kliff Kingsbury & Kyler Murray bringing about an offensive revolution in the desert should have water thrown on in considering how much the spread & dual threat quarterbacks have already infiltrated the NFL, but it will be exciting -- especially compared to last season's epic disaster. There will be growing pains, especially behind what remains a poor offensive line, but Murray was the right choice (both over the rest of the draft & Josh Rosen) & he'll have no shortage of receivers to throw too -- including David Johnson who should once again be fully utilized as a pass catcher & not just a runner. The hiring of Vance Joseph to run the defense should prevent the Cardinals from falling into the trap of forgetting defense matters the way Kingsbury's Texas Tech teams did, though it may not seem that way over the first six games of the season as Patrick Peterson serves his suspension for violating the league's performance enhancing drug policy. That first month & a half will be tough, but the Cards have the potential to surprise people over the later half of the season.
Awards
MVP: Patrick Mahomes (Runner-Up: Carson Wentz)
Coach: Kyle Shanahan (Runner-Up: Matt LaFleur)OPOY: Christian McCaffrey (Runner-Up: Saquon)
DPOY: Calais Campbell (Runner-Up: Aaron Donald)
OROY: Kyler Murray (Runner-Up: Miles Sanders)
DROY: Josh Allen (Runner-Up: Brian Burns)Comeback: Earl Thomas (Runner-Up: Jimmy G)
DPOY: Calais Campbell (Runner-Up: Aaron Donald)
OROY: Kyler Murray (Runner-Up: Miles Sanders)
DROY: Josh Allen (Runner-Up: Brian Burns)Comeback: Earl Thomas (Runner-Up: Jimmy G)
 |
| Calais Campbell is fired up about winning DPOY. (Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images) |
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
(3) Packers over (6) 49ers
Two of the leagues top play callers face off &, to no one's surprise, it's the one with Aaron Rodgers that moves on.
(4) Rams over (5) Vikings
The Vikings have a shot to win in regulation but their kicker misses wide right. In OT Zuerlein's leg proves true, & over the off-season Mike Zimmer petitions the league to ban kicking from the game.
Divisional Round
(1) Eagles over (4) Rams
In a battle between the last two NFC champs the team that managed to beat the Patriots comes out on top again.
(3) Packers over (2) Panthers
It's a back & forth battle until Adrian Amos seals the deal with a late interception to get the Packers back to the NFC title game.
Conference Championship
Conference Championship
(1) Eagles over (3) Packers
It's closer than the last time either team played in the conference championship, but it still ends with an Eagles win & a Packers loss.
SUPER BOWL LIV
The Andy Reid Return Bowl, alternatively known as the Kelce Bowl, proves to be a true classic & wonderful palate cleanser after last season's atrocity. The defenses hold surprisingly firm through most of the first quarter but the offenses get going in the second & never look back. At the half it's 16-13 Chiefs, with a missed extra point keeping the game within a field goal's reach. Early in the fourth Tyrann Mathieu forces a Carson Wentz fumble on a safety blitz to set up a short field & the Chiefs grab a 30-20 lead. The Eagles hurry down the field to cut the lead to three, & a third down pass breakup by Malcolm Jenkins gets them the ball back with just under three minutes to play. The Eagles face fourth & one at the Chiefs 18 with just sixty seconds to play. Pederson opts to go for it & three plays after the conversion Dallas Goedert catches the winning touchdown pass.
Eagles 34, Chiefs 30
Eagles 34, Chiefs 30
MVP: Carson Wentz
 |
| The new dominant NFL duo? In 2019 at least. (NBC Sports) |
No comments:
Post a Comment