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| Will Trump still reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in 4 months? I have my doubts. Evan Vucci / Associated Press |
On Tuesday, which marked six weeks till this year's federal elections, I asked on Facebook what people thought Trump's chances of reelection were. The feedback was not overwhelming (Only four people answered, including a text exchange) but the most common response was that Trump is a moderate underdog with the Supreme Court opening & the potential for poor debate performances by Biden leaving the door open for this to turn into a toss-up. The one dissenting opinion had Trump as a solid favorite, citing incumbent advantage (four of the last five have won), a strong pre-COVID economy, & lack of excitement around Biden.
All of the answers had some solid reasoning behind them, but I wasn't surprised to find that they all gave Trump better odds than I do (I'd put him at around 25%). At the risk of being proven a fool in six weeks, here are my thoughts on why it's unlikely:*
*A quick note: References to current polling/odds are often linked to FiveThirtyEight, or The Economist, whose polling & election models are constantly updating, thus numbers may have changed slightly since I posted this.
