Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.

Ravens vs. 49ers: HARBAUGH BOWL! Just as interesting Baltimore would have a shot at winning the Super Bowl in Indianapolis, the city current Colts owner Jim Irsay gutlessly relocated the then Baltimore Colts to in the middle of the night back in March of 1984² (granted the Cleveland Browns would later relocate to Baltimore). In addition we would be treated to the worst QB matchup in a Super Bowl since January 2001 when Trent Dilfer & Kerry Collins faced off. I hope to God this does not happen because like Bama/LSU we’ve already seen this game & it was ugly.

²This is the only reason I’d like to see the Ravens win.

Ravens vs. Giants: Remember that horrible QB matchup I just mentioned? Well those were the starting quarterbacks for these 2 teams back in January 2001 when they faced off in the Super Bowl & the Ravens, alas, dominated the Giants. Unlike a Giants/Patriots rematch this would only be a revenge game for Giants’ fans as Super Bowl MVP Ray Lewis is the only remaining player from either team.

So which one of these matchups will happen? Let’s take a look.

AFC Championship: Ravens at Patriots

The last time these two played the first play from scrimmage went like this. That was only the start of a horrific first quarter for the Patriots that saw them quickly trailing 24-0. The 34-14 victory would be historic for a number of reasons. It was Tom Brady’s worst playoff game; he committed 4 turnovers & finished with a 49.1 QB rating. It was Brady & Belichick’s first home playoff loss (they’d previously been 8-0). & the amazing Joe Flacco set a playoff record for fewest yards thrown, 34, by a winning QB in a playoff game with at least 10 attempts. Certainly the Ravens, & their fans, are taking some comfort in this but they shouldn’t.

The following year the Patriots defeated the Ravens 23-20 in overtime in the fifth game of the season. That may not seem impressive but it’s important to remember that the Patriots were only just breaking in their rookie tight ends, Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez, who now form the greatest tight end combo in history (from a receiving standpoint). The Patriots are much more dangerous than either of the versions the Ravens faced the last 2 years. Plus it’s a confident Patriots team that has been getting more pressure on the quarterback recently & just demolished the Broncos.

You’re probably saying, “The Broncos? Come on Joe, we all knew how that games was going to end,” & you would have a point. That said did you watch the Ravens play last week? They got thoroughly dominated & would have lost had T.J. Yates & Jacoby Jones not kept insisting Baltimore have the ball & Kevin Walter opted to try & catch the last second Hail Mary with his hands rather than utilizing the side of his arm. Most telling of all for this game the Ravens managed 0 sacks & only 2 QB hits on Yates’ 35 drop backs. If Brady gets anywhere near that time he will carve the Ravens up. It also doesn’t help that New England has one of the best punt & kickoff coverage teams, & the Ravens aren’t good at returning either. Give a quarterback whose last name autocorrects on iphones to flaccidFlabbo 70 or 80 yards to drive & chances are he’ll screw up before his team reaches the end zone.

New England 30, Baltimore 21

NFC Championship: Giants at 49ers

Back in week 10 these two faced off & what started as a field goal kicking contest (the first 18 points were all off of kicks) morphed into a fourth quarter classic as the Giants nearly completed a 14 point comeback before Justin Smith (who has my vote for Defensive Player of the Year) knocked down Eli Manning’s 4^th & 2 pass from San Francisco’s 10-yard-line with under a minute to go. This started a four game skid that nearly cost the Giants their season & proved vital in the 49ers winning the two seed over the Saints, something that undoubtedly played a role in their victory over New Orleans last week. Now though they meet with much higher stakes-the winner goes to the Super Bowl.

Obviously a key component to predicting this game is looking back at what, besides Justin Smith’s forearm, decided the last game. In that game the Giants, despite at one point trailing by 14, largely outplayed the 49ers. New York outgained San Francisco by 90 yards while achieving 5 more first downs, dominating time of possession by over 9 minutes, & converting 7 of 14 third downs (& 2 of 3 fourth downs) to San Francisco’s 3 of 11. Why then did the Giants lose? First San Francisco grabbed an extra possession by converting a surprise onside kick in the first half. Then Eli Manning through 2 key interceptions, both being somewhat attributable to his wide receivers. On the first Victor Cruz burned corner Carlos Rogers only to drop a wide open pass 25 yards down field, the following play Manning tried to find Cruz on the same route but the combination of Manning under throwing the pass & better coverage by Rogers resulted in a pick. The second was the result of Mario Manningham inexplicably cutting off a route in the middle of the field as Manning threw the ball, resulting in another Rogers’ interception (In fairness Alex Smith’s one pick was the result of a terrible drop by Ted Ginn Jr.).
             Each team also experienced a key injury. Frank Gore was lost for the game in the second quarter, & though he had gained 0 yards on 6 carries his injury allowed the Giants to concentrate more on pass defense. This may have proven vital had the Giants not also lost their best coverage linebacker in Michael Boley in the 2^nd quarter, his absence would be felt when rookie LB Greg Jones blew a coverage early in the 4^th that ended in a 31-yard touchdown for Vernon Davis & a lead the 49ers would never relinquish.

So what is likely to repeat itself? Obviously the turnovers for both teams were rather fluky, both quarterbacks have been playing at a high level as of late, & in their previous game each defense proved adept at forcing turnovers so that part of the game is anyone’s guess. Now can the Giants have the same success on offense? San Francisco has the best front 7 in football but they failed to get pressure on Eli in the first game (1 sack on 41 drop backs) & Drew Brees last week (3 sacks on 66 drop backs), if that continues I don’t see why Eli & his talented receiving corps wouldn’t be able to put up points. If that’s the case then if the Giants take care of the ball, as they’ve succeeded in doing during their 4 game win streak, they should be able to put up points.

The question then becomes can San Francisco keep up, or shorten the game with their rushing attack? The answer to both these questions comes down to Alex Smith. I expect the Giants defense to once again focus on trying to take away the run game & Vernon Davis, thus leaving Smith to create the 49ers offense. At first glance that may seem like a disaster but Smith played well enough to win under those circumstances in week 10 & his ability to run poses a challenge for a Giants defense that shut down nearly every aspect of the Packers’ offense last week except Aaron Rodgers’ ability to scramble.

Ultimately I expect each team’s defense to succeed much more in pressuring the quarterback this time round leading to a low scoring battle of attrition, just the type of game the 49ers want especially seeing as they have the best punter in the NFL, Andy Lee, to help win the field position battle. Nonetheless I like Eli to pull out the 4^th quarter comeback this time, leading to a Super Bowl rematch of Peyton’s younger brother & biggest rival battling it out for NFL supremacy on his home field.

New York 20, San Francisco 16