SUPER BOWL XLV
Packers 27, Steelers 23
Rodgers asserts himself as a truly elite quarterback & Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).
Now I don’t want to call myself a prophet but… how awesome is that?! I correctly predicted both Super Bowl teams!* Of course Sport’s Illustrated’s Peter King also predicted a Packers/Steelers Super Bowl, so I’m hardly alone, but he chose Pittsburgh to win. So there you have the one major storyline that’s been ignored by the media: Who will prove to be right? Peter King, the noted NFL reporter who’s been in the business for decades? Or Joe Matz, the 20-year-old Tucson blogger?**
*An improvement from last year when I correctly predicted the Colts appearance, but failed miserably in picking my Giants (I had the Colts winning).
**Peter & I don’t deserve too much credit since we both bailed on our picks. Before the playoffs he switched his prediction to Patriots/Packers, & I picked the Eagles over the Pack in round 1 (though I’ve been loyal ever since).
But enough about my genius, let’s take a quick look at why each team should win.
Why the Steelers should win:
· They have the best defense in the NFL (No one cares you were #1 in yardage Chargers fans, not when the Steelers were 1st in points allowed & sacks).
· Mike Tomlin (as played by Omar Epps) is a better coach than Mike McCarthy, even Packers fans readily admit this.
· Ben Roethlisberger loves winning Super Bowls even more than trying to rape women.
· They beat the Packers 37-36 last season, w/out Troy Polamalu.
· Dick Lebeau is to defense what Sir Isaac Newton was to physics.
· James Harrison will attempt to kill every Packer through the course of the game.
· LaMarr Woodley will be matched up against rookie tackle Bryan Bulaga.
· Mike Wallace is really fast.
· The Steelers already beat a one dimensional passing team in the Super Bowl (see: Arizona Cardinals)
Why the Packers will win:
· They have the 2nd best defense in the NFL (No one cares you were #1 in yardage Chargers fans, not when the Packers were 2nd in points allowed & sacks).
· In 12 career game played in domed stadiums Aaron Rodgers has thrown 25 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions for a passer rating of 111.5. In his two playoff games in domes the Packers scored 45 points & 48 points while he threw for 7 touchdowns & 789 yards. Suck on that Favre.
· Clay Matthews
· Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields, & Nick Collins give the Packers the best secondary in football.
· Maurkice Pouncey, the Steeler’s Pro-Bowl center, is out for the game.
· Flozell Adams is Pittsburgh’s starting right tackle. As all Cowboys fans know Adams is the 2nd most penalized player over the last 5 years with a barrage of false starts & holding penalties (As Cowboys fans also know current Cowboy tackle Alex Barron is 1st in penalties over that time. Kudos to Jerry Jones for continuing to ignore one of the most vital positions in football).
· Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, & Jordy Nelson comprise possibly the deepest receiving core in the league.
· The Packers 6 losses are all by 4 points or less & they’ve never trailed by more than points in any game (the 1st such team since the 1962 Lions).
· Karma. Is a team with a guy twice accused of sexual assault (Roethlisberger) & an all around ass-hole/idiot (Harrison) really going to win its 3rd Super Bowl in 6 years over the guy who showed nothing but class in the wake of the Brett Favre saga (Rodgers) & the guy raising awareness on the fight for a cure for Duchene, the most common form of muscular dystrophy?
Now that we’ve covered why each team should win let’s get down to business, who’s going to win & why? To do that I’ll give you my 5 keys to the game & how they’ll play out.
1. Will Pittsburgh be able to run the ball?
The Packers have an extraordinary pass defense however their run defense is only average, for the Steelers to win they’ll need to be able to establish the run game & continue to run it throughout the game. Problems arise for Pittsburgh, however, due to the absence of Pouncey which will hurt their ability to pound the ball, as well as offensive coordinator Bruce Arians tendency to abandon the run if it doesn’t pay immediate dividends.
2. Will Green Bay try to run the ball?
Green Bay is not a good running team & Pittsburgh has by far the best run defense in all of football so the question is not if Green Bay will run the ball successfully but rather will they try at all. Conventional wisdom says the Pack will be better off sticking with the run so as to keep the Steelers honest. Well, that’s bullshit. If Green Bay wants to take the ball out of the hands of their best player (Rodgers) so they can gain two yards they’d better expect to see headlines tomorrow about the new Steelers’ dynasty. Back in 2008 the Cardinals attempted to run a somewhat balanced offense, & for 3 quarters the Steelers kept them in check. Only when the Cardinals went to a no-huddle, spread passing offense did they find success. If Green Bay learns from that they should be able to move the ball up & down the field.
3. Will the Packers be able to protect Rodgers?
As I just mentioned the Packers best chance to win the game it to throw, throw, & throw some more, however the strategy only works if they can keep Rodgers upright. In James Harrison & LaMarr Woodley the Steelers have two of the premier blitzing linebackers in the league & LeBeau’s sure to bring pressure throughout the game. It’ll be key for left tackle Chad Clifton to be able to handle Harrison one-on-one so that rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga can get help with Woodley. Against the Bears the Packers offense looked unstoppable early but Clifton got hurt & missed a number of series. During that time the Rodgers took a number of big hits & the Packers offense stalled, if that happens here the Pack will be in big trouble.
4. Can Roethlisberger avoid the big mistake?
Make no mistake, Ben Roethlisberger is one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, but he’s also prone to mistakes due to his go big or go home playing style. Thanks to his size & mobility Big Ben can extend plays better than any quarterback in the NFL, including Michael Vick. This is a huge asset that allows him to convert big plays others can only dream off, however this tendency to hold onto the ball so long also leads to higher than normal sack, & fumble, rate & in search of those big plays he sometimes forces the ball. Against the Packers relentless pass rush & ball hawking secondary it is vital that Roethlisberger limit his mistakes.
5. Will either team blow the game on special teams?
While this game features a battle between two of the best quarterbacks & defenses in the league, the special teams battle is one of mediocrity. Green Bay’s return & coverage teams range from below average to terrible & Pittsburgh’s aren’t much better. Green Bay’s kicker, Mason Crosby, has one of the strongest legs in the game but his accuracy can be questionable while Pittsburgh’s new kicker, Shaun Suisham (Super Bowl veteran Jeff Reed was cut midseason), has been only missed two kick thus far, out of 18, he’s hardly know for being clutch (just ask any Redskin fan). Worst of all for Pittsburgh their superb punter Daniel Sepulveda was lost to injury late in the season & they’re now stuck with the borderline terrible Jeremy Kapinos (32.3 net yards per punt). With two closely matched teams like this one play could very well make the difference & that puts a premium on special teams play.
What do I think will happen? Dom Capers Packers’ defense will stuff the Steelers run game early on & Arians will largely abandon it, putting the game in Roethlisberger’s hands. The Packers will attempt to establish the run, & naturally fail miserably. This will lead to a low scoring first half. In the second half with both offenses committed to the pass scoring will tick up. James Starks will be on the bench as Green Bay will use Brandon Jackson’s superior pass blocking skills & a quick passing attack to keep Rodgers from getting clobbered too often. Rodgers & the Packers’ receiving corpse will pick on Pittsburgh corner Bryant McFadden with great success however their inability to run the ball will cause drives to stall in the red zone leaving points dependant on the leg of Crosby, who will come through. Roethlisberger & the Steelers will also find some success, but with their attack becoming increasingly one-dimensional Ben will eventually be forced into a mistake. Nonetheless late in the game Roethlisberger & the Steelers will find themselves with the ball needing a touchdown for the win, but alas the swarming Packer defense will come up clutch. Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers will hoist the Lombardi Trophy as Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).
Green Bay 23, Pittsburgh 17
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