Super Bowl XLVII Preview!

In this biggest brother versus brother battle since
 the Civil War who will come out on top?

After being teased with it last year, & thankfully avoiding it as a Giants fan, today we get to see the Harbaugh Bowl. As someone with a brother equally obsessed with sports I do find this to be fascinating, but of course you're probably already sick of hearing about them especially since really all most of us want is an exciting game & we could care less about the Harbaugh family dynamics but let me offer my one thought on the issue.

Doesn't this game have to mean more to John? Not just simplistically because it sucks to lose to your younger sibling but because John's been coaching football since 1984. What was Jim doing for many of those years? Playing quarterback in the NFL from 1987-2000 (where he notably was the first player Ray Lewis sacked, & later a teammate of the deer-antler aficionado). You spend decades working your ass off, moving up the coaching ranks, while your brother experiences the glory of being an NFL QB. Then your brother spends just two years as an NFL assistant before getting a college head coaching job & now that you've finally reached the biggest game of your career, what you've been working towards for 28 years, there's your hot headed brother trying to take your glory in just his 2nd season as an NFL head coach. Yea, this game definitely means more to John.

As for the actual teams there's a narrative that they're similar smash mouth, tough defense, run the ball teams & while there's some truth to that it's overly simplistic. Sure they both like to run the ball but the Ravens do so with the great Vonta Leach leading the way at fullback, & never with their quarterback, while the Niners are the two tight end, pistol loving, team that makes running the football seem as exciting as any team without Adrian Peterson can.

Matz Bowl II, otherwise known as Super Bowl XLVI, Preview!

Manning vs. Brady in Indy-we've seen it before, but never like this.

Before I get into any analysis & the pick I’d like to take this moment to gloat, so if you don’t want to read that skip a paragraph down. For the third straight year I’ve correctly predicted (in the pre-season) one of the Super Bowl participants (New England). In addition I saw the Giants/Patriots rematch coming before anyone else. As soon as the wild card round was over I saw it lining up even as Packers fans cried about how they were being disrespected prior to their loss & 49ers players & fans were yelling about how nobody had it better than them before the revived Alex Smith fell apart on third down.¹ & realizing this helped lead me to go 9-1 predicting the winner in the playoffs (Ok so picking T.J. Yates against the Ravens proved to be ill advised). Now we’ll have to see if I can finish this year with a correct Super Bowl XLVI pick.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.

SUPER BOWL XLV PREVIEW!

In my pre-season NFL Preview I made this Super Bowl Prediction:

SUPER BOWL XLV

Packers 27, Steelers 23

Rodgers asserts himself as a truly elite quarterback & Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).

Now I don’t want to call myself a prophet but… how awesome is that?! I correctly predicted both Super Bowl teams!* Of course Sport’s Illustrated’s Peter King also predicted a Packers/Steelers Super Bowl, so I’m hardly alone, but he chose Pittsburgh to win. So there you have the one major storyline that’s been ignored by the media: Who will prove to be right? Peter King, the noted NFL reporter who’s been in the business for decades? Or Joe Matz, the 20-year-old Tucson blogger?**

*An improvement from last year when I correctly predicted the Colts appearance, but failed miserably in picking my Giants (I had the Colts winning).

**Peter & I don’t deserve too much credit since we both bailed on our picks. Before the playoffs he switched his prediction to Patriots/Packers, & I picked the Eagles over the Pack in round 1 (though I’ve been loyal ever since).

But enough about my genius, let’s take a quick look at why each team should win.