2017 NFL Preview

As per tradition I'm posting my NFL preview during opening Sunday, so I won't waste your time with some expanded prelude discussing the greatness of the NFL, or its shittiness, or my past success with predictions (Half of the Super Bowl teams the last 8 years, & 3 of the winners). Let's get to it...

Will Tom Brady be celebrating again this season?

AFC

East

1. Patriots (1) 13-3
2. Dolphins      7-9
3. Bills            4-12
4. Jets              2-14

The Patriots may have lost their opening game, but their balance across all three facets of the game, plus their coach & QB, remain the envy of the league. That, & this terrible division, should allow them to grab home field advantage. Tannehill to Cutler doesn't make any difference in my feelings about the Dolphins, they simply aren't going to go 8-2 in one score games again. They were a mediocre team that got lucky last year, they'll just be mediocre this year. Ah, the Bills. A few months ago I might've taken them as a wildcard, now they've traded away half of their good players. Tyrod & LeSean will keep them competitive in a number games, but only for so long. The Jets are going to be so so so bad, two wins might be optimistic. 

North

1. Steelers (2) 12-4
2. Bengals (6)  9-7
3. Ravens        8-8
4. Browns       3-13

If the Steelers offense can just stay healthy, & avoid suspensions, they could be every bit as good as the Falcons record breaking unit from last year, that & an opportunistic young defense makes them the Patriots primary threat. With the addition of Joe Mixon, better health, & better kicking (The released Mike Nugent missed 6 FGs, & 6 extra points, last year.), the Bengals should have better luck in close games (1-6 in 2016) & challenge for a first round loss in the playoffs. The Ravens may very well have the best defense in the league, that along with John Harbaugh & Justin Tucker, will ensure they're in every game. The key to their season will be Joe Flacco, not only does he need to play better but he has to be healthy. After missing the preseason with a bad back he's starting, & he needs to because if Ryan Mallet has to play Baltimore is done. The Browns weren't as bad as people think last year, losing 5 times, including twice in OT, by less than a touchdown. With Deshone Kizer & Myles Garrett they should grab a couple more wins.

South

1. Titans (3) 11-5
2. Texans       9-7
3. Colts         6-10
4. Jaguars     5-11

Marcus Mariota is ready to lead the Titans to the playoffs.

The Titans were the best team in this division last year but a lost tiebreaker kept them out of the playoffs, that shouldn't be a problem this year as Mariota moves into the league's top 10 quarterbacks. With J.J. Watt back & Deshaun Watson replacing Mensa member Brock Osweiler Houston should be better than last year, I'm just not sure that will translate into more wins after last year's team vastly overachieved. If Andrew Luck plays 12 games he should drag the Colts to wins in half of those games, I don't expect a victory in any of the contests he misses. Between the improvement of their youth & the addition of Calais Campbell Jacksonville should have a top 10 defense, but so long as their quarterback position remains a black hole victories will be few & far between.

West

1. Chiefs     (4) 10-6
2. Chargers (5) 10-6
3. Raiders          8-8
4. Broncos         7-9

Joey Bosa is ready to take down Carr & the Raiders.

The Chiefs offense has never looked better than it did against the Patriots on Thursday, they also lost Eric Berry for the season though which will keep them from joining the Patriots & Steelers atop the AFC. A new coaching staff, which includes Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator, &, one would have to assume, better injury luck should help Philip Rivers & the Chargers get back to the playoffs. Oakland's offense should remain potent however there are a lot of questions about the ten guys on defense who aren't Khalil Mack. They also won a league leading 9 games by one score, that just isn't sustainable. The coaching staff may have changed but the offense hasn't in Denver, & that's all that matters. 

NFC

East

1. Eagles (4)   10-6
2. Giants (6)   10-6
3. Cowboys     9-7
4. Washington 7-9

Philadelphia excelled last year on defense & special teams, & there's no reason they shouldn't this year, but their offense held them back. In his second year Carson Wentz should change that, especially now that Alshon Jeffrey & Torrey Smith give him real weapons on the outside. The Giants defense is as good as any in the league, & Eli Manning has the best receiving corps of his career, yet this team will continue to be hampered by the worst set of offensive tackles in the league. Dallas may end up with Zeke Elliot for the entire season but some shuffling on the offensive line & a defense, especially a pass rush early in the season, that leaves one wanting could keep them out in this competitive division. Washington should enjoy Kirk Cousins while they can because if he leaves this off-season this team will be trash.

 North 

Aaron Rodgers is good.

 

1. Packers (3) 11-5
2. Vikings        9-7
3. Lions          6-10
4. Bears          4-12

Green Bay should remain atop the division so long as Aaron Rodgers is taking snaps, a shaky offensive line could limit him just enough to prevent the cheeseheads from grabbing a first round bye. Mike Zimmer's defense should be something to reckon with this season, & Dalvin Cook will provide a spark to the Vikings running game, the question is if Sam Bradford can make the plays necessary to get this team to the playoffs. Matthew Stafford will keep the Lions in a lot of games, I'm just not convinced he'll be able to overcome his defense & win as many this year. The John Fox era in Chicago will end with a whimper rather than a bang.

South

1. Panthers (2) 11-5
2. Falcons  (5) 11-5
3. Buccaneers  8-8      
4. Saints           7-9

The Panthers win total the last five years: 7, 12, 7, 15, 6. So this should be their on year, especially with Christian McCaffrey in the fold to provide Cam Newton with an underneath playmaker. Atlanta's offense figures to take a, small, step back this year with the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan but defensive growth from the youthful defense should keep them near the top of the conference. The Bucs are a popular breakthrough pick, consider me a skeptic. Jameis Winston has all the talent in the world but his decision making leaves something to be desired, & even with the signing of T.J. Ward I don't think this defense is more than average. The Saints are the inverse of the Broncos.
 

West 

The return of Earl Thomas is bad news for opposing offenses.

1. Seahawks (1) 12-4
2. Cardinals         9-7
3. Rams              5-11
4. 49ers              3-13

Seattle's offensive line remains horrid, but a healthy Russell Wilson should be able to overcome that more often than not while the return of Earl Thomas & the trade for Sheldon Richardson give the Seahawks as fearsome a defense as they've ever had. The Cardinals were better than their 7 wins last year, but defensive losses, & a questionable in every meaning Carson Palmer, will likely prevent them from climbing back into the playoffs. Freed from a Jeff Fischer regime stuck in the football stone ages Jared Goff might look semi-competent, Gurley could rebound, & if Wade Philips can work his defensive magic the Rams might challenge for a wildcard. That's a lot of qualifiers though, next year feels more likely. Kyle Shanahan was a good hire, Brian Hoyer will be an upgrade at quarterback, but San Francisco has a long way to go to field a competitive roster.

Awards:

MVP: Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Patriots to lean on the run game more, Russell Wilson has his defense to lean on, & the Steelers all have each other, meanwhile Aaron Rodgers is carrying the Packers.

Coach: If Anthony Lynn does give Los Angeles it's first playoff team in 24 years he should take this award.

Offensive Player: If Le'Veon Bell plays all 16 games he'll run away with this award.

Defensive Player: Lining up in Gus Bradley's attacking 4-3 Joey Bosa should be even more monstrous than last year.

Offensive ROY: There are a number of running backs who should be in contention but Christian McCaffrey can effect the game in so many ways, & figures to be on a contender, that he figures to win out.

Defensive ROY: Myles Garrett is a beast.

Comeback Player: J.J. Watt is a mythical beast.

AFC Championship: Patriots 31, Titans 20

The Titans upset the Steelers but their run ends, as so many have the last 16 years, in Foxborough as Brady picks apart another Dick LeBeau defense.

NFC Championship: Seahawks 23, Packers 17

Green Bay continues to be haunted by the NFC West in the playoffs, as a late Packers drive comes up short, setting up a Super Bowl XLIX rematch.

Super Bowl LII: 

The first half proves to be a defensive battle, with the Patriots holding a narrow 7-6 lead at the half. In the second half though Brady & Wilson find their grooves & it becomes a back & forth affair. Down 4, Wilson gets the ball with 3 minutes left & leads the team downfield. Inside the Patriots 10 with under a minute left the Seahawks' fan base urges their brain trust to run the ball, they don't... & Russell Wilson find Jimmy Graham in the end zone for the decisive score.

Seattle 27, New England 24

MVP: Russell Wilson

Be prepared to see this again.