Arizona vs. Oregon: Can the Cats Slow Down the Ducks? Is Zendejas the Answer? Will the Pain Finally End?

Juron Criner's scored 5 TDs against Oregon.

Ok… So that wasn’t a great start to the PAC-12 (& thank God, for a number of reasons, we’re not about to be the PAC-16). Yet another beat down against a ranked opponent. In fact in our current 7 game losing streak to D-1 opponents we lost to 2 unranked opponents by a combined 4 points, & to 5 ranked opponents by 120 points. On the plus side we hung with Stanford for most of 3 quarters & if we’d switched back to Zendejas like I’ve been calling for or if Juron Criner’s appendectomy hadn’t also removed his ability to catch touchdowns who knows what might’ve happened. Also after last year’s disappointing finish to my predictions (I correctly called every game in Arizona’s 7-1 start, & then missed 3 of 5 in their 0-5 finish) I’m 3-0 so far this year (I know only one of those is posted on here but I think you can trust I called the NAU & Ok St. games correctly). Now it’s on to #10 Oregon, the third straight top 10 team Arizona has faced, the first team to do so in 3 years. A game that absolutely no one outside of the Wildcat organization thinks they’re going to win.

Before we get to any game analysis let’s do a quick history lesson. Why? Because I’m a history major & just like any other aspect of life history can tell us a lot of what to expect in a sporting contest. We’ll start in 2007, the last time a top 10 Oregon team came to play in Tucson. Arizona was 4-6 while Oregon was heavily favored at 8-1, ranked #2, & with QB Dennis Dixon the Heisman favorite. At least he was until he aggravated a sprained knee in the first quarter. The Wildcats took advantage of this good fortune as 2 of the four best players of the Stoops era (Antoine Cason & “Money” Mike Thomas) scored 2 touchdowns a piece as Arizona won 34-24 & Arizona fans legitimately rushed the field.

The following year a 6-3 Arizona team faced of against the 7-3 Ducks in Eugene. The Ducks raced off to a 48-17 lead early in the second half & we seemed headed toward one of the worst losses of the Stoops era. Then something strange happened, Arizona made adjustments on both sides of the ball (this actually happened) & scored 28 straight points behind 12 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown by the great Rob Gronkowski & 3 second half touchdown runs by Keola Antolin to cut the lead to 48-45 midway through the 4^th quarter. Had an Oregon fumble not been muffed out of bounds by the Wildcat defense, or Antolin not short armed a Tuitama pass for a first down late in the game, Arizona likely would’ve pulled off an astounding comeback. Alas they lost valiantly 55-45.

The following season was possibly the most gutting loss in Arizona football history. With a potential Roe Bowl bid on the line Arizona had a 24-14 lead early in the 4^th behind fantastic play from Nick Foles & Juron Criner before Oregon rallied to score 17 4^th quarter points, tying the game on a touchdown pass with 6 seconds remaining (this last drive set up by a Foles deep ball being picked off in the end zone, a pass that went off his motherf***ing receiver’s hands). Of course this last touchdown happened while a bunch of s*** faced, f***headed, c***nuggets, stood around the edge of the field ready to rush to celebrate a victory that would never come, & one these “fans” clearly did not deserve (If upon their deaths these individuals were forced to spends 24 hours in hell to atone for this horrible display of stupidity I would have no problem with that, & at least one of them is a close friend). Arizona then lost in double overtime, thanks in large part to bad offensive play calling, &, as this article points out, the two programs have been going in vastly different directions ever since.

Last year a 7-3 Arizona team, coming off back-to-back losses, went to Eugene to face the undefeated, #1 ranked, Ducks. The Wildcats played inspired football in the first half, holding the high powered Oregon offense to 14 points & 175 yards, on their way to a 20-14 lead. In the second half things did not go as well. The combination of penalties (some of which was less than stellar officiating-you know what I’m talking about Adam Hall), turnovers, & Oregon being kind of awesome led to 34 points & 362 yards for the Ducks in the 2^nd half as they came away victorious 48-29.

Now we come to this year’s game. We all know Arizona has been struggling defensively, giving up 37 points in consecutive games, but for my money the bigger problem has been on offense. Foles has played well, leading the 5^th ranked passing attack in the nation, but horrible run blocking, curious play calling, key drops, & terrible field goal kicking have kept the team from scoring more than 14 points in either of the last two games, & kept the defense in the field for far too long. It’s no secret will have to score a lot more than 14 (try triple that) to win this game. The good news is that the young o-line can only improve (especially if redshirt freshman Fabians Ebbele plays the whole game at right tackle, because substitute Jack Baucus has the unfortunate tendency of forgetting he can use his hands on every other play); Criner (who has scored 5 TDs against the Ducks) should be much better after another week to get healthy; explosive freshman Ka’Deem Carey should continue to see more playing time; & Alex Zendejas should prove to be a vast improvement over the woeful Jamie Salazar. In addition the Arizona defense is built around speed, rather than power. So while Stanford’s powerful o-line was able to bully the Wildcats, Arizona should match up better with Oregon’s speed oriented attack.

The bad news? Oregon’s speed is insane. Since the start of last season they have 56 touchdown drives that 2 minutes or less, half of which took 3 plays or fewer. QB Darren Thomas is faster than many a defensive back, & running back LaMichael James has a nation leading 11 runs of 50+ yards, & 39 of 20+ yards since 2009. However they can be slowed down. In their opener against LSU (which, to be fair, has one of the 2 or 3 best defenses in the country) the Ducks were held to 27 points & 95 yards rushing while committing 4 turnovers. It helped that LSU controlled the clock with a strong rushing attack. So while Oregon’s offense may be impressive, it is not unstoppable.

Now Arizona’s not going to hold Oregon to 27 points & we’re not going to run for 175 yards, thereby keeping their explosive offense off the field. However our passing attack is capable (assuming we don’t foolishly try to establish our run game against another top 10 opponent) of sustaining long drives that can rest the defense, drives that will need to end in points, primarily touchdowns. & if the defense remains disciplined in its assignments & does not commit stupid penalties (two HUGE ifs mind you) they can hold Oregon to a few three and outs (&, God willing, force a couple turnovers) & keep themselves from getting too exhausted so that they can make a stand when it matters.

Prediction: The Arizona offense is finally put entirely on Foles’ shoulders as he rises to the task, aided by solid pass protection, tearing apart the Oregon secondary with his vast array of weapons (Criner scores at least twice). The defense gives up plenty of yards, & points, but proves opportunistic by forcing a couple of Duck turnovers. Special teams proves the difference as the Ducks miss a field goal, Kyle Dugandzic continues his fantastic work at punter, a big play (be it a return or an Oregon fumble) shifts momentum towards the Cats, & Zendejas first field goal attempt in his return as starter is the game winner as time expires! Oregon loses 2 more games on their way to a disappointing 8-4 season, while the Cats rally going 6-2 against an easier schedule before defeating Oklahoma State in an Alamo Bowl rematch.
Arizona 38, Oregon 37

No! That’s crazy. Oregon’s too good, we’ll figure out ways to screw up our early chances & it’ll be another 2^nd half blowout.

Oregon 45, Arizona 27           

Screw that, I believe!

ARIZONA 38, Oregon 37-ZENDEJAS!!!