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| After thinking about it for 2,821 days will Aaron Rodgers finally get his revenge on the 49ers? |
BRONCOS (-10) over Ravens
This time last year the Broncos were entering the 2nd round of the playoffs as the shocking (to the billions who don't read this blog anyway) winner of round 1 & Tebow-mania was at its peak. Of course it was also at its end as the Patriots demolished Tebow (who suffered broken ribs) & the Broncos (45-10). Then in the offseason an even greater miracle than even Tebow could produce happened, Peyton Manning chose to come to the Broncos & now they're marching into the 2nd round not as 8-8 underdogs but as a 13-3 juggernaut with eleven straight wins, nine of which they scored at least 30 points in, including a 34-17 domination of the Ravens. We know this is a far different, & better, Broncos team than last year but the question is will this game be different than the one played four weeks ago.
In the minds of Ravens fans the answer is surely yes as they've gotten healthier (though not actually all that healthy) most notably with the return of Ray Lewis last week. While Lewis made his presence felt last week by leading the team with 13 tackles the Colts still found 150 yards on the ground against a Ravens defense that's hardly lived up to the their standard of the last decade, & the simple truth is that if the Ravens can't slow the Broncos run game (they gave up 163 yards last month) they will lose. You simply can't give Peyton Manning a run game because that makes his play-actions all but unstoppable, especially when your top corner is Cary Williams.
Another difference is that this game will be in Denver rather than Baltimore, though some would argue this is a disadvantage for the Broncos as Manning is 0-3 in playoff games colder than 40 degrees & will have to wear a glove on his throwing hand to help him grip the ball due to weakness from his spinal surgery. Of course he's already played two games this year with the glove, throwing 6 touchdowns to 1 interception in two Broncos wins.
As most Ravens fans are aware of though the most important player in this game will be Joe Flacco (& after him his offensive line). Of Baltimore's six losses two were by double digits, a 43-13 loss to the Texans & the aforementioned loss to the Broncos. In those two games Flacco faced a great deal of pressure, being sacked a combined 7 times, & he did not react well to that pressure throwing 3 interceptions & playing two of the three worst games by a quarterback this year according to ESPN's QBR. The Broncos have the best pass rush in football (a league leading 52 sacks) so it's safe to say Flacco will face plenty of pressure in this game & how he reacts may decide the game.
Denver 31, Baltimore 20
Packers (+3) over 49ERS
Interestingly for the 2nd straight year 3 of the 4 divisional match ups are rematches from earlier in the season. Last year 2 of the 3 original winners completed the sweep, while the one team that turned the tables went on to win the Super Bowl. After having a similarly dominating first round performance (albeit against Joe Webb) these Packers will hope to continue to follow the Giants' script this week against a Niners team that handled them in the opening week of the season.
In that first game San Francisco physically dominated the game, running for 186 yards compared to the Packers 45, but, thanks to a Randall Cobb punt return for a touchdown, the Packers remained in the game until a 4th quarter Rodgers interception. While that pick was key, it was the Alex Smith & the 49ers ability to avoid a turnover that was of greater importance. As Bill Barnwell points out in the McCarthy/Rodgers era the Packers are a mere 1-10 in games in which they don't force a turnover & 73-25 otherwise. So it's paramount that Kaepernick avoid mistakes against the Packers ball hawking defense, because God knows you don't want to give Rodgers any help in extracting his revenge against his hometown team. If the 49ers do what the folks at Football Outsiders advise them to, use two backs to force the Packers out of their preferred nickel package & into a base 3-4, Kaepernick should find this task easier (& I suspect Harbaugh's smart enough to do this).
However even if the 49ers are mistake free I wouldn't quite guarantee a victory because at long last the Packers receiving corps is healthy & as Football Outsiders also points out the 49ers, for all their defensive glory, do not have the most adept dime defense. Even more importantly though Justin Smith (who I maintain was the defensive player of the year last season), while returning to the field, is unlikely to be 100%. As Barnwell also noted since Smith went out in the Patriots game Aldon Smith hasn't recorded a sack & the 49ers gave up 31 points to the Patriots in the second half & 28 to the Seahawks in the first after having not given up more than 26 points in a game all season. More than anyone he's the key to that defense & if he isn't wrecking havoc & requiring a constant double team Aaron Rodgers will have time & that's not something you want to give him.
Green Bay 24, San Francisco 21*
*This season Akers & Crosby have been the two least reliable kickers in the NFL, this game has to come down to a field goal if only to torture both fan bases.
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