10 Terrible Predictions & the AFC Playoff Picture

Tim Tebow's blowing up my 5-11 Broncos prediction.

Thanks to my inability to manage my time I’ve been on hiatus from the blog for about 2 months, & haven’t posted anything about sports since September 24, well it’s time to rectify that. In order to atone myself for the many horrible predictions I made in my NFL Preview I’m going to now correctly* predict how the last 4 weeks will unfold and who will make the playoffs. First though, for a good laugh, let’s take a look back at some of my horrible predictions.

*Yea, I don’t really believe that either but it’s possible. I got the Super Bowl right last season!!! Remember? You don’t? Well it happened, & I’m going to cling to that till the day I die.

My 10 worst predictions in descending order:

10.  Prediction: Bears 6-10

        Reality: They’re 7-5 & with the injuries to Cutler & Forte they’re unlikely to finish strong, but before that this was the third or fourth best team in the NFC & the biggest threat to the Packers undefeated season. This team was much better than I expected.

9. Prediction Bengals 4-12

    Reality: They’re 7-5 & in the thick of the playoff hunt. I thought that the strike shortened camp would doom this rookie lead team, apparently I underestimated Andy “Shawshank”** Dalton, A.J. Green, & this very good defense.

**You can go with “Red Rifle” but as a Bill Simmons reader pointed out you’ve got a guy named Andy who’s got read hair, how can you not call him Shawshank?

8. Prediction: Broncos 5-11, finish in last place.

Reality: Denver’s sitting atop the division at 7-5. I flirted with picking them to win the division for about 3 seconds (I did this with every AFC West team), then I remembered Kyle “The Meaning of Mediocre” Orton was their QB.  While I thought they should have gone with Tebow from game 1 I didn’t see him rattling off 5, & counting, victories in a row. Also John Fox is giving John Harbaugh a late run for his money for Coach of the Year.

7. Prediction: Ravens 9-7, miss playoffs.

    Reality: The Ravens are 9-3 & leading the division. While I’m still not sure about Flacco & that o-line I was way off on their “aging” defense, which happens to be the best unit in the NFL (besides Visanthe Shiancoe’s).

6. Prediction: Eagles 11-5, win NFC East
     Reality: Philly is 4-8 & tied for last place. In my defense I was at least smart enough to realize that their lacking offensive line & linebacking corpse would be major weaknesses & that this was no Super Bowl team (I had them out in the 2^nd round). This train wreck though? I’m surprised, pleased, but surprised.

5. Prediction: Rams 9-7, 1^st in the NFC West.
     Reality: 2-10 & stuck in last place. While I was right about Chris Long having a breakout season I was wrong about everything else on this team. I should’ve listened to myself when I looked at their schedule & thought, “They’ll be lucky to finish with a winning record.”

4. Prediction: 49ers 6-10

   Reality: San Fran is 10-2 & in position for a first round bye. I said Harbaugh was a “massive upgrade” at head coach & yet that still doesn’t give him justice. He’s made Alex Smith into a mediocre QB & that’s enough with this defense, a defense that clearly isn’t missing Aubrayo Franklin like I thought they would.

3. Prediction: Colts 7-9

    Reality: Indy is 0-12 & on their way to a likely 0-15 at which point they’ll go to Jacksonville & try to avoid the 2008 Lions in infamy. Clearly Peyton Manning meant more to this team than almost any of us realized. Even with Peyton though the Texans would’ve been far better this season because Peyton doesn’t play defense & the Colts have the worst one in the league.
2. Prediction: Browns 10-6, make playoffs, Coach Pat Shurmur wins Coach of the Year.

    Reality: Cleveland is 4-8 & at the bottom of the AFC North, & Shurmur has failed to improve a horrid offense. Can I just say I mixed up the Browns & Bengals? Every year there are a couple surprise teams, this year I picked the Browns when I should have picked any other team whose mascot began with a “B.” I mean even the Bills were a surprise for half the season.

1. Prediction: Chargers 13-3, grab the 2 seed, Rivers wins MVP.

     Reality: San Diego is 5-7 & Norv Turner looks to be on his way to finally being fired, & Philip Rivers leads the league in interceptions. Remember when I said I flirted with putting every team in the AFC West first in the division? That wasn’t a joke, & yet I somehow talked myself into one of those teams (the one with the coach that should have been fired last season) going 13-3. Even for me that was incredibly stupid.

Okay now onto the last 4 weeks!

AFC Playoffs Picture

East:

New England 9-3     Remaining Schedule: at Washington, at Denver, Miami, Buffalo

Prediction: 13-3, sure Denver & Miami could be tough but ever since they lost to the Giants this team has been on a roll. Even the defense hasn’t been completely horrid the last 4 weeks.  Give them a first round bye.

New York Jets 7-5     Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, at Philly, NY Giants, at Miami

Prediction: 9-7, this isn’t an overly tough schedule but I just don’t trust them. The last 2 weeks they’ve let reeling Buffalo & Washington teams stay in it until the end they can get away with that against KC, but that could get them into trouble against Philly (now that Vick’s back), a Giants team fighting for its playoff life, & a suddenly on fire Dolphins squad.

North:

Baltimore 9-3     Remaining Schedule: Indy, at San Diego, Cleveland, at Cincinnati

Prediction: 12-4, with that schedule shouldn’t Baltimore be able to win out? Yes, but here’s a fun fact: 2 of the Ravens 3 losses are to losing teams. This is a team that gets up for the big games & sometimes forgets to show up for the little ones, don’t be surprised if that happens again.

Pittsburgh 9-3     Remaining Schedule: Cleveland, at San Fran, St. Louis, at Cleveland

Prediction: 13-3, I’ll stick with my preseason forecast because there’s only 1 game here the Steelers might lose & while the 49ers actually have the better defense I still like Ben against Patrick Willis & co. a lot more then Alex Smith facing Troy Polamalu & the rest of the curtain.

Cincinnati 7-5     Remaining Schedule: Houston, at St. Louis, Arizona, Baltimore

Prediction: 9-7, I like these guys but even with T.J. Yates at QB Houston remains formidable, the Rams beat the Saints which means they’re capable of pulling an upset, the Cards have started to look decent, & Baltimore’s not bad. Quick fact: the Bengals are 1-5 against teams that currently have winning records & 6-0 versus losing teams. So yea, 9-7 seams right.

South

Houston 9-3     Remaining Schedule: at Cincy, Carolina, at Indy, Tennessee

Prediction: 12-4, with Matt Schaub this may have been the best team in the AFC without him they’ve still managed to, thus far, keep on winning but games that should have been comfortable wins have instead been rather tight. Still the run game & Andre Johnson should keep Yates afloat & Wade Philips defense is one of the best in the NFL, so while they may not escape unscathed the Texans should still win the division handily.

Tennessee 7-5   Remaining Schedule: New Orleans, at Indy, Jacksonville, at Houston

Prediction: 9-7, the Titans have played 3 straight games that ended 23-17 (they won the last 2),  I don’t expect that to be the score against the Saints as I suspect Drew Brees will light them up. After that they get Indy & 2 teams that have already beat them. No easy road for the Titans.

West

Denver 7-5     Remaining Schedule: Chicago, New England, at Buffalo, Kansas City

Prediction: 10-6, even with their injuries Chicago will be tough, but I think Tebow can overcome. The Patriots though I think will prove too much, though if Tebow is Football Jesus than Bill Belichick has to be Satan & if the Broncos win that one Tewbowism will really take off. The last 2 Denver should win.

Oakland 7-5     Remaining Schedule: at Green Bay, Detroit, at Kansas City, San Diego

Prediction: 8-8, this schedule is just too much for Oakland. Green Bay & Detroit are clearly better teams, Oakland got creamed 28-0 nothing by KC earlier in the season, & Phil Rivers is really good this time of year. Sorry Oakland.

Final AFC Playoff Standings

1.     Pittsburgh 13-3

2.     New England 13-3

3.     Houston 12-4

4.     Denver 10-6

5.     Baltimore 12-4

6.     Tennessee 9-7, wins tiebreakers over NYJ & Cincy