2020 NFL Preview

 A couple of months ago I wasn't sure we'd have an NFL season, a month ago I doubted we'd finish the season, but thus far the NFL's robust testing program has kept things running smoothly &, after some early stumbles, MLB also seems to be going well so *fingers crossed, knock on wood, say the Rosary, etc.* we might actually get a full season of the NFL! With that in mind here are my annual - & seemingly always late - predictions which will hopefully have the accuracy of Drew Brees on the football field & not Drew Brees reading the room. 

Four of these guys will be in the playoffs, you can probably guess which four. ESPN

Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can the Panthers prove this fan wrong?

After a disappointing regular season of predictions I rebounded strong last week, starting the playoffs 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall. I'd be angry with Dallas for not covering except that their failure to easily handle the Lions allowed for the one thrilling playoff game of the weekend. In fairness, Baltimore-Pittsburgh was a solid game, the Bengals & Cardinals, however, were such a wreck offensively that they not only bored me to death for a combined 6 hours but they may have actually tricked people into thinking their opponents could win this week (SPOILERS!). This first round continued the horrible run of nationally televised games this season that saw 33 of 54 such games end with a margin of victory of 10 points or greater (That's 61 percent). Is it so much to ask for some drama?! Granted the drama in Dallas got overshadowed by a blown call but even then it was at least something to talk about.*

*What Dallas haters don't want to talk about is that Brandon Pettigrew also committed a penalty on the disputed play. And that even after the refs picked up the flag the Lions were up three with the ball & they should have gone for it facing a fourth and one from the Cowboys 41, or at least not punted 10 yards when Jim Caldwell chickened out, or maybe stopped the Cowboys when they twice converted key fourth downs in the second half, or perhaps completed one of their two (courtesy of Demarcus Lawrence's fumble) game winning drive opportunities. Suffice it to say the Cowboys won the game & the Lions lost it, regardless of the ref's screw up.

Thankfully, there's reason to believe this week's games will prove more entertaining. The two best barometers of a team's quality are point differential and Football Outsider's DVOA. In the eight teams left we have the top seven in point differential & the top six in DVOA, with DVOA less of a fan of the Colts, & the Panthers here thanks to the rest of the NFC South's abhorrence to playing defense & the sadness that is every Ryan Lindley pass. That sort of quality makes blowouts less likely, & the fact that the remaining squads are helmed by five Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, & three others who have all been to Pro Bowls, means that even if a team ends up down multiple scores early their fans need not start downing shots of Fireball less they still be sober for the 4th quarter. And if they're not close... we'll always have next week.

Now on to Saturday's picks... (Home teams in caps)

NFL Wild-Card Picks

How many of these QBs will be moving on this weekend?

Normally at the start of the NFL playoffs I'd talk about what a great season this has been, but has it been all that great this year? Yes, we got to see the greatest catch in human history, but man were most of the prime time games boring. I didn't go back to check but I'm pretty sure 95% of them were blowouts. If that transfers over to the playoffs the NFL will cede its spot atop my sports hierarchy to college football now that that sport finally has its own playoffs.* I wouldn't bet on that though. The NFL always has something whacky happen in the playoffs, whether its Tim Tebow winning a game or Andrew Luck completing an epic comeback that could only come against an Andy Reid coached team. This is going to be fun. OK, Cardinals-Panthers will just be depressing, but everything else has a chance to be great.

*Thank God they do have a playoff. Can you imagine having to watch Bama crush FSU in another sham of a championship courtesy of the BCS?

Before I get to the picks for this weeks game though, let's look back at my preseason predictions and see what I got right & just how many things I got horribly wrong.

Super Bowl XLVII Preview!

In this biggest brother versus brother battle since
 the Civil War who will come out on top?

After being teased with it last year, & thankfully avoiding it as a Giants fan, today we get to see the Harbaugh Bowl. As someone with a brother equally obsessed with sports I do find this to be fascinating, but of course you're probably already sick of hearing about them especially since really all most of us want is an exciting game & we could care less about the Harbaugh family dynamics but let me offer my one thought on the issue.

Doesn't this game have to mean more to John? Not just simplistically because it sucks to lose to your younger sibling but because John's been coaching football since 1984. What was Jim doing for many of those years? Playing quarterback in the NFL from 1987-2000 (where he notably was the first player Ray Lewis sacked, & later a teammate of the deer-antler aficionado). You spend decades working your ass off, moving up the coaching ranks, while your brother experiences the glory of being an NFL QB. Then your brother spends just two years as an NFL assistant before getting a college head coaching job & now that you've finally reached the biggest game of your career, what you've been working towards for 28 years, there's your hot headed brother trying to take your glory in just his 2nd season as an NFL head coach. Yea, this game definitely means more to John.

As for the actual teams there's a narrative that they're similar smash mouth, tough defense, run the ball teams & while there's some truth to that it's overly simplistic. Sure they both like to run the ball but the Ravens do so with the great Vonta Leach leading the way at fullback, & never with their quarterback, while the Niners are the two tight end, pistol loving, team that makes running the football seem as exciting as any team without Adrian Peterson can.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be disappointed again
 by Championship weekend?

We're nearing the end & my 3 year streak of predicting the AFC Champion is a game of way from being extended as the Pats made quick work of the Texans, & my preseason NFC pick, Atlanta, is also a game away from making me look like a genius for the 2nd time in 3 years.* Or at least as close to a genius as someone who picked Lovie Smith to be coach of the year can be, & who is 3-5 both overall & against the spread this playoffs.** Beyond my own selfish hopes of having my prognostication being proven correct there's plenty of other storylines for this weekend. We've got the Patriots/Ravens rematch of both last season's nail-biting championship & this year's 1 point Baltimore victory. The Falcons as the third team in five years (joining the Cardinals & Bears) to be hosting the NFC Championship & yet still be the underdog. The rise of Colin Kaepernick. The second straight year with a chance at a Harbaugh Bowl. Tom Brady potentially playing against his hometown team. Matt Ryan's potential redemption. &, most likely, the swan songs for two of the greatest players in the history of the game in Tony Gonzalez & Ray Lewis. It's a fascinating set of possibilities & I'll do my best to predict which ones will ultimately materialize.

*I nailed the Packers over Steelers back in 2010-11. Imagine if I'd wagered on that matchup before the season... Damn.

**With it being one of my friends last weekend in Tucson before moving to NYC I didn't find the time to write up my picks for the Sunday games but, as posted on my facebook, they were Seahawks 24-20 & Patriots 31-17. 

Saturday's Divisional Picks

After thinking about it for 2,821 days will Aaron
Rodgers finally get his revenge on the 49ers?

We've once again reached the best weekend of the NFL season when the 8 best teams in the league face off over two days & today I'll run through the Saturday games & hopefully recover from my horrible 1-3 record against the spread last week (thanks for saving me Seattle!) & pedestrian 2-2 overall.

NFL Wild Card Picks

Will Sunday be the end for Ray Lewis?

I'm back after a two month hiatus to bring you my picks for the first week of the NFL playoffs.* It's been one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory dominated by a half dozen different stories throughout the year. We had the undefeated Cardinals & then we had the regular Cardinals.** There were the replacement refs who ranged from surprisingly solid to Golden-Gate bad, an argument over which rookie QB was the best*** that began with two guys & expanded to include a surprising third, two historic comebacks by all-time greats & two historic individual seasons with Adrian Peterson somehow being involved in both.**** Luckily among all of these crazy happenings we still had the Dallas Cowboys there to help keep our bearings as they stumbled out of the gate, rebounded strongly in the second half just to get their fans hopes up, & then lost the last game of the season to blow a playoff spot in favor of a third place finish in the division, just as they had the year before. Now though the true season begins...

*Hopefully I'll be able to both redeem myself for my horrible (at least on the AFC side) preseason picks & continue my playoff prediction hot streak from last year when I correctly predicted 9 of the 11 games  & beat the spread 8 of 11 times. 

**Last season I would occasionally get into arguments with people over how bad John Skelton was. Those I opposed put forth he had promise & was probably better than Kolb, I said Skelton was a giant pile of crap trying to pass himself off as an NFL quarterback. I think it's safe to say I'll never have to argue that again. 

***It's Luck. The stats don't back me up, but they also don't tell you how much more dependent the Colts are on Luck than the Skins or Hawks are on their rookie signal callers. As good as RG3 was Kirk Cousins finished off one game saving drive & won another game with Griffin out, Wilson has by far the best team around him, & they both have great running games to support them. Luck had Reggie Wayne &... Yea. 

****My MVP ballot: 
1. AP-2,097 yards on 6.0 YPC while dragging Christian Ponder into the playoffs.
2. Brady-The Patriots scored 76 points more than any other team even with their best offensive weapon, Gronkowski, out much of the year.
3. Peyton-Looked even sharper than in his last year with the Colts as he took the Broncos from overachievers to legit contenders. 

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.

Sunday's Divisional Round Picks

The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly: which will we see from Flacco?

Woohoo! 6-0! To hell with modesty. I’ve never picked the first 6 games of the playoffs correctly before, & my perfection may well end today, so I’m going to savor this for a moment. Alright, enough of that. Besides I’m a more pedestrian 4-2 against the spread so hopefully any advice you’ve taken from my picks has been used to make bets with your friends rather than your bookie (Because I assume if you’re reading this you’re an addictive gambler, as all good football fans are). Anyway today I put my surprising streak of near omnipotence to the test, & oh what a test it will be.

10 Terrible Predictions & the AFC Playoff Picture

Tim Tebow's blowing up my 5-11 Broncos prediction.

Thanks to my inability to manage my time I’ve been on hiatus from the blog for about 2 months, & haven’t posted anything about sports since September 24, well it’s time to rectify that. In order to atone myself for the many horrible predictions I made in my NFL Preview I’m going to now correctly* predict how the last 4 weeks will unfold and who will make the playoffs. First though, for a good laugh, let’s take a look back at some of my horrible predictions.

*Yea, I don’t really believe that either but it’s possible. I got the Super Bowl right last season!!! Remember? You don’t? Well it happened, & I’m going to cling to that till the day I die.

My 10 worst predictions in descending order:

10.  Prediction: Bears 6-10

        Reality: They’re 7-5 & with the injuries to Cutler & Forte they’re unlikely to finish strong, but before that this was the third or fourth best team in the NFC & the biggest threat to the Packers undefeated season. This team was much better than I expected.