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| Can Brady & Gronk lead the Patriots back to the Super Bowl? |
*It's not really that hard. Over the last 9 years only the Colts, Patriots, & Steelers have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. Also that's two consecutive years on Joe's Junk & one on Facebook.
AFC
AFC East
New England (1) 13-3
Buffalo (6) 10-6
New York 8-8
Miami 4-12
New England's defense should be improved thanks to the addition of Chandler Jones & Dont'a Hightower in the front 7 & a healthy set of DBs. As for the offense if the o-line fixes the problems it's had in the preseason the Pats should put even more points now that they have a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd & the plodding BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been replaced with Stevan Ridley. Buffalo's defense has been overhauled with Mario Williams & Mark Anderson giving them a formidable pass rush & a fully healthy Fitzpatrick & Fred Jackson will have the offense back to its early 2011 ways. New York's defense will continue to be one of the best units in football, & gives them a chance to make the playoffs, but an offense that struggles to do just about anything will hold them back. If Miami had opted for Matt Moore at QB rather than a rookie who was converted from wide receiver his sophomore year of college they could have been a competitive team, but with Tannehill starting & no starting caliber wide receivers their season will be much like their 0-4 preseason.
AFC North
Pittsburgh (3) 11-5
Baltimore 9-7
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 3-13
Pittsburgh's offensive line may be a mess, it always is, but they have the best QB & wide receivers in the division & I expect this will once again be the best defense in the league. I'll fully admit picking Baltimore to miss the playoffs is a risky move when they were only a play away from the Super Bowl last year but we've seen plenty of top seeds drop off the next year & with Terrell Suggs out for half the season this seems like the year their aging defense takes a step back & I don't see Flacco picking up enough of the slack. Cincinnati is solid all around but they're going to continue to struggle running the football in this division & that leaves to much pressure on Andy Dalton who is still only in his second year. Sorry Cleveland but Brandon Weeden's going to be terrible, & so are your Browns.
AFC South
Houston (2) 11-5
Tennessee (5) 10-6
Indianapolis 7-9
Jacksonville 4-12
Nothing's bigger for Houston than Matt Schaub being back in the lineup, which should help make up for any of the defensive regression the Texans experience this year (teams that improve as much as they did tend to regress to the mean the following year), & they should be able to secure a first round bye. Tennessee went 9-7 last year & even if moving from Matt Hasselbeck to Jake Locker proves to be a step down the rest of the team should be improved with a healthy Kenny Britt on hand, Chris Johnson rebounding from last year, & Kamerion Wimbley providing some much need pressure on defense, so playoffs it is. Things are looking up in Indianapolis as Andrew Luck is a massive upgrade from the guys the Colts had at QB last year, & Chuck Pagano's pressure packages should improve the defense, that I was tempted to pick them as a playoff team. Then I remembered they went 2-14 last year & even when Peyton Manning was healthy the year before he had to drag them to 10-6 so 7-9 feels about right & Colts fans should look forward to a bright future. Jacksonville had a vastly underrated defense but their best player on offense held out the entire preseason & their quarterback is still Blaine Gabbert so 4-12 it is.
AFC West
Kansas City (4) 10-6
Denver 8-8
San Diego 6-10
Oakland 6-10
Kansas City got ravaged by injuries to their best players last season, started 0-2, & still managed to finish 7-9 & a game out of first place. Now Eric Berry is back to bolster the best defense in the division, Jamaal Charles, & new addition Peyton Hillis, should once again give the Chiefs a dominant running game, & Tony Moeaki's return & Jon Baldwin's continued development (along with Dwayne Bowe) should give Matt Cassell the best options he's had in Kansas City. I like Tim Tebow but there's no doubting Peyton Manning makes Denver far better. With that said that only makes them average. The Broncos were enormously lucky last season going 7-4 (6-1 when Tebow started) in games decided by one possession & then catching a beaten up Steelers team at the perfect time. Let's not forget that Peyton's addition won't make a sketchy pass defense any better (Newsflash: Champ Bailey's not good anymore!). There's a chance they'll win the division, but they're not Super Bowl contenders. San Diego lost their best receiver, have a constantly injured running back, a defense that just isn't good, & Norv Turner "coaching" them. Even Philip Rivers can't keep this ship afloat. If Oakland can keep Darren McFadden's healthy the whole season (Cross your fingers!) & Carson Palmer doesn't turn the ball over to often the Raiders could score a lot of point, however scoring more then they give up is a whole nother matter.
NFC
NFC East
New York (3) 10-6
Washington (6) 9-7
Philadelphia 9-7
Dallas 7-9
New York may have lost their first game but they lost 7 of their first 14 last year & still managed to win the Super Bowl (Ahahahaha!) so I'm not too worried. The offensive line remains worrisome but Eli & co. managed to score plenty of points despite that last year & if the Giants' cornerbacks can get healthy the defense could be a force to be reckoned with. Washington?! Confused right? Well every years since 2003 (maybe earlier, ESPN's NFL standing only go back to 02 & I'm lazy) a team that finished 5-11 or worse has made the playoffs the following season. What did Washington go last season? 5-11 & they beat the Super Bowl champs twice despite having Rex Grossman as their QB. Now they have Robert Griffin III & an improving defense. Enjoy Redskins fans. Philadelphia still have plenty of talent but I still don't entirely trust that defense despite a strong finish last season & the addition of DeMeco Ryans, & I sure as hell don't trust Michael Vick to stay healthy. All of this adds up to another disappointing season & quite possibly the end of the Andy Reid era. Am I putting Dallas in last simply out of bitterness from Wednesday's game?
NFC North
Chicago (1) 12-4
Green Bay (5) 12-4
Detroit 7-9
Minnesota 5-11
Chicago was 7-3 last season & looked like a Super Bowl contender before Cutler & Forte went down. Now they're both back, Brandon Marshall's there to join them, & Mike Martz won't be there calling plays intended to end Cutler's life. Combine all of that with their usual exceptional defense & you have the number one seed in the NFC. There's no doubt any Green Bay fan who reads this will think I'm an idiot, but that's fine, they thought the same thing when I told them the Giants would beat them in the playoffs last year. Besides there's not that much to be upset about. I still have the Packers going 12-4 & with a (marginally) improved run game, (marginally) improved defense, & the great Aaron Rodgers under center there's no doubt they remain huge Super Bowl contenders. Detroit fans will also think I'm an idiot but I still need to see Stafford stay healthy for another 16 games behind that shaky line with little to no run game, & the defensive backfield actually stop anyone before I truly start believing in this team. Minnesota will probably play a lot like they did last year, they'll keep things close but ultimately lose because they're just not that good anywhere outside of running back.
NFC South
Atlanta (2) 11-5
New Orleans 8-8
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 6-10
Atlanta's only one season removed from going 14-2 & being the number one seed & yet to many people they're an afterthought. People explain this by pointing out there 0-3 record in the playoffs the last 4 years while failing to realize the three three teams they lost to all went to the Super Bowl & two of them won it. The truth is Matt Ryan has the weapons for this to be among the best passing offenses in the league & I fully expect them to fulfill that potential & the additions of Asante Samuel at corner & Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator should make the defense nearly as dangerous as the offense. Sure New Orleans had the bounty-gate suspensions for their players overturned but this is a much smaller deal than some would have you believe. Two of the four players aren't on the team anymore & Curtis Lofton had been signed to replace Vilma. The much bigger deal is the coaches & GM's suspensions & those aren't being overturned. The turmoil caused by that & what should still be a terrible defense, even with new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, will be too much for Drew Brees & the offense to overcome. Carolina will be better & could challenge for a playoff spot, but like the Saints their defense leaves quite a bit wanting & so they'll likely need to wait one more year to enjoy the postseason. Tampa Bay's gone from 9-7 to 3-13 to 10-6 to 4-12 so who knows what to expect from them. Josh Freeman should bounce back from his horrific season last year, especially with the addition of Vincent Jackson, while Carl Nicks & Doug Martin should enliven the run game but this offense still isn't as dynamic as the others in this division & they have one of the worst defenses in the league so last place is where they shall remain.
NFC West
Seattle (4) 9-7
San Francisco 9-7
Arizona 4-12
St. Louis 3-13
Surprised? Seattle's underrated defense figures to be every bit as good as San Francisco's, Russell Wilson should be a solid upgrade on Tavaris Jackson, the receiving corps should experience better health, Marshawn Lynch will keep pounding away, & one of the best home field advantages in football should take Seattle to the top of the division. San Francisco is a trendy Super Bowl pick because of the upgrade's they made on offense, but the truth is even with the addition of Mario Manningham & Randy Moss they still have merely average receivers & there's simply no way Alex Smith is only throwing 5 picks again or that the team will post an extraordinary +38 turnover margin. & as good as the defense is they were also extremely lucky health wise last season, so expect a few more injuries, & a slightly less stout group. San Francisco is still a solid team, but their Super Bowl window (with Alex Smith at QB) may have already closed. Arizona played 13 games that were decided by one possession last year & went 8-5, many of those 8 wins involved a Patrick Peterson punt return for a touchdown. If you think that's a reliable way to beat opponents you'd best check yourself in to the nearest psychiatric ward. The defense might improve but so long as the Cardinals have a horrible o-line & John Skelton or Kevin Kolb at QB wins will be hard to come by. St. Louis added Jeff Fisher as their coach & professional ass-hole Cortland Finnegan (one of six new defensive starters) to improve the team but this could well be an example of things having to get better before they get worse. Foot6ball Outsiders projects St. Louis to be by far the worst team in the NFL & I ultimately think it will be a battle for futility between them & Cleveland. Maybe in a few years Rams.
Awards
MVP: Tom Brady once again puts up 5,000 yards & 40 TDs on his way to his second MVP, edging out the much improved Matt Ryan.
Offensive POY: I'm going to stick with Brady, but Drew Brees could end up throwing it almost 700 times this year keeping the Saints in games so he should not be counted out.
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware was my pick last year & I'll stick with him as 20 sacks should be well within reach, though JPP could challenge him.
Offensive ROY: RGIII & Russell Wilson may lead their teams to the playoffs, but Andrew Luck's still going to be the best rookie.
Defensive ROY: Chandler Jones will prove a huge addition to the Patriots pass rush, as will Bruce Irvin for Seattle.
Coach: Lovie Smith gets the Bears atop the NFC, & beats out Romeo Crennel.
Playoffs
Wildcard Round:
AFC
#3 Pittsburgh over #6 Buffalo 26-14
The Steelers will shut down the Bills run game & force Fitzpatrick into mistakes on their way to the 2nd round.
#4 Kansas City over #5 Tennessee 16-13
In a defensive battle KC nails a late kick to pull out victory.
NFC
#3 New York over #6 Washington 24-17
Eli patiently puts of 24 & RGIII can only escape the New York pass rush for so long.
#5 Green Bay over #4 Seattle 28-20
Even with home field Seattle can't quite keep up with the Packers.
Divisional Round:
AFC#1 New England over # 4 Kansas City 34-21
Matt Cassel & Romeo Crennel return to Foxborough only to see their team get demolished by the Patriots.
#3 Pittsburgh over #2 Houston 23-21Roethlisberger & the Steelers put up just enough to escape from Houston with a win after the Texans miss a late field goal.
NFC#5 Green Bay over #1 Chicago 20-16
It's another ugly brawl between these two but Rodgers & co. ultimately prove who the real champs of the North are.
#2 Atlanta over #3 New York 27-23
The Matt Ryan revenge tour begins with a victory over the defending champs, helped by a defense that bends but does not break.
Championship Round:
AFC
#1 New England over #3 Pittsburgh 30-24
Even Pittsburgh's defense can't stop the Brady train as New England passes their way to another Super Bowl appearance.
NFC
#2 Atlanta over #5 Green Bay 38-34
When the dust clears from this Madden like shootout it's Ryan & the Falcons who are left standing.
Super Bowl XLVII
The defenses surprise everyone by not letting Brady & Ryan to run roughshod over them &, like all Patriots Super Bowls, the game proves to be close. Ultimately though experience wins out & Belichick & Brady further carve their names into football lore.
Patriots 23, Atlanta 20
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