2019 AFC Preview

The NFL is back for it's 100th season, finally giving me the chance to redeem myself after last year's Falcons over Chargers Super Bowl prediction. This year I've split the preview into AFC & NFC sections, the latter of which will run Sunday & include awards & the Super Bowl, because otherwise this would be way too long. Now let's get to it before Antonio Brown switches teams again.

One hundred years of CTE! (Bill Feig / Associated Press)

 AFC Preview

AFC East

1. Patriots   13-3 (1)

2. Jets           8-8

3. Bills           5-11

4. Dolphins   3-13

A month ago New England's biggest weakness appeared to be a less than stellar receiving corps, now they have Josh Gordon &, somehow, Antonio Brown. There may be no guarantees either is still playing in January, but if anyone can keep them on the field & productive it's the Brady/Belichick duo. They've also got a strong line, good stable of running backs, a steal from the draft in end Chase Winovich, & a defense built around the best cover corner in football, Stephon Gilmore. The only question in the regular season is if they'll be the one or two seed in the AFC.

These guys on the same team? That seems unfair. (USA Today)

Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Who will win this battle of football titans*?
*Obviously I don't mean the Tennessee Titans, they suck. 

I don't want to toot my own horn* about correctly predicting this Super Bowl five months ago so let's just get straight to talking about this fascinating game.

*Actually, I do. I'm 8-2 against the spread (Naturally, I haven't been betting), & straight up, in these playoffs. Only 6 of 64 ESPN experts correctly predicted this Super Bowl at the start of the year. In seven years of making preseason predictions I've got at least one Super Bowl team right in all but one year. I've now nailed 8 of the 14 teams during that span. King Kong ain't got s*** on me!
 
I know a lot of people aren't thrilled this game is between the Seahawks & the Patriots, the two most hated teams in the league, give or take the Cowboys & Steelers, but who cares what the haters think. The further this season went on the more apparent it became that this was the most interesting potential matchup. Sure, Denver fans would've loved a rematch, until it ended in another double digit loss. It was always a matter of time before the Colts got blasted by a better team, better for it not to be in the big game. Dallas... F@#$ that. Green Bay would've been fun though. Rodgers vs. Brady, a rematch of one of the few marquee matchups of the regular season that lived up to the hype, no one would've objected to that. This is even better though. Pete Carroll's shot at revenge on the team & owner that fired him. Tom Brady versus his successor in the clutch category, Russell Wilson (Who's 10-0 against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, though that has a lot to do with the defense). The two best cornerbacks in the league demonstrating just how good they are. The Seahawks can become the first repeat champions since the Patriots. Belichick & Brady* can become only the second coach/QB combo to win four Super Bowls (Chuck Noll & Terry Bradshaw were the first). Brady gets a shot at beating the team that massacred his rival the year before, & in doing so cement himself as the best quarterback of his generation. They're also just the two best teams in football.** That's a lot of great storylines, & it's going to be awesome getting to see which ones play out.

*Listen, if you want to always see an asterisk next to those two names because of spygate & deflategate go ahead. You're being either extremely stupid, or biased if you do, because neither of those was A. exclusive to the Patriots or B. that big a deal, but go ahead & let your Patriot hate flow.

**Certainly some Packers fans will take exception to that claim what with Rodgers being hurt & Seattle needing a miracle comeback to win on their home turf. I'd counter that Russell Wilson quite possibly played most of that game with a concussion & the Seahawks turned the ball over 5 times & the Packers still couldn't beat them. You don't get better opportunities than that & if you can't capitalize you're simply not good enough –– at least not with your coach asleep at the wheel.

Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can the Panthers prove this fan wrong?

After a disappointing regular season of predictions I rebounded strong last week, starting the playoffs 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall. I'd be angry with Dallas for not covering except that their failure to easily handle the Lions allowed for the one thrilling playoff game of the weekend. In fairness, Baltimore-Pittsburgh was a solid game, the Bengals & Cardinals, however, were such a wreck offensively that they not only bored me to death for a combined 6 hours but they may have actually tricked people into thinking their opponents could win this week (SPOILERS!). This first round continued the horrible run of nationally televised games this season that saw 33 of 54 such games end with a margin of victory of 10 points or greater (That's 61 percent). Is it so much to ask for some drama?! Granted the drama in Dallas got overshadowed by a blown call but even then it was at least something to talk about.*

*What Dallas haters don't want to talk about is that Brandon Pettigrew also committed a penalty on the disputed play. And that even after the refs picked up the flag the Lions were up three with the ball & they should have gone for it facing a fourth and one from the Cowboys 41, or at least not punted 10 yards when Jim Caldwell chickened out, or maybe stopped the Cowboys when they twice converted key fourth downs in the second half, or perhaps completed one of their two (courtesy of Demarcus Lawrence's fumble) game winning drive opportunities. Suffice it to say the Cowboys won the game & the Lions lost it, regardless of the ref's screw up.

Thankfully, there's reason to believe this week's games will prove more entertaining. The two best barometers of a team's quality are point differential and Football Outsider's DVOA. In the eight teams left we have the top seven in point differential & the top six in DVOA, with DVOA less of a fan of the Colts, & the Panthers here thanks to the rest of the NFC South's abhorrence to playing defense & the sadness that is every Ryan Lindley pass. That sort of quality makes blowouts less likely, & the fact that the remaining squads are helmed by five Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, & three others who have all been to Pro Bowls, means that even if a team ends up down multiple scores early their fans need not start downing shots of Fireball less they still be sober for the 4th quarter. And if they're not close... we'll always have next week.

Now on to Saturday's picks... (Home teams in caps)

2014 NFL Preview

Can Seattle become the first team to repeat in 10 years?

I love college football. It's fantastic, & this year there's even a playoff! With that said the highlight of my fall weekends is the Christian, not the Jewish*, Sabbath. In the NFL you actually know who all of the players are. Unless you're a Raiders fan, every season you can talk yourself into believing your team is going to make the playoffs &, after the recent playoff runs of the Giants, Cardinals, & Ravens, that means they've got a chance to win it all! Does it help that my team, the Giants, have won 2 of the last 7 Super Bowls while the Arizona Wildcats have never made a Rose Bowl? Absolutely! But that's exactly my point: The NFL is what people want to believe America is like –– a place where if you plan right & work hard you can lift yourself from the bottom to the top of society –– while college football is what America really is –– a place with a giant divide of haves & have nots where the occasional surprise success story provides the illusion of hope. That's why I prefer the NFL, even with moral questionability of the entire enterprise, so I'm super excited for another season of madness that will surely make many of my following picks look shockingly foolish.**

*If we're being totally honest Judaism has it right. Christianity sold out the Sabbath, & a bunch of other things, for converts.

**But not all of them! Unlike any of ESPN's 36 experts last season I correctly predicted the Panthers to get the 2 seed in the NFC, in addition to predicting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, the Falcons to fall off (though not that drastically), & the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Does it matter than I also had the Giants & Bucs in the playoffs? Yeah... I know it does.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be disappointed again
 by Championship weekend?

We're nearing the end & my 3 year streak of predicting the AFC Champion is a game of way from being extended as the Pats made quick work of the Texans, & my preseason NFC pick, Atlanta, is also a game away from making me look like a genius for the 2nd time in 3 years.* Or at least as close to a genius as someone who picked Lovie Smith to be coach of the year can be, & who is 3-5 both overall & against the spread this playoffs.** Beyond my own selfish hopes of having my prognostication being proven correct there's plenty of other storylines for this weekend. We've got the Patriots/Ravens rematch of both last season's nail-biting championship & this year's 1 point Baltimore victory. The Falcons as the third team in five years (joining the Cardinals & Bears) to be hosting the NFC Championship & yet still be the underdog. The rise of Colin Kaepernick. The second straight year with a chance at a Harbaugh Bowl. Tom Brady potentially playing against his hometown team. Matt Ryan's potential redemption. &, most likely, the swan songs for two of the greatest players in the history of the game in Tony Gonzalez & Ray Lewis. It's a fascinating set of possibilities & I'll do my best to predict which ones will ultimately materialize.

*I nailed the Packers over Steelers back in 2010-11. Imagine if I'd wagered on that matchup before the season... Damn.

**With it being one of my friends last weekend in Tucson before moving to NYC I didn't find the time to write up my picks for the Sunday games but, as posted on my facebook, they were Seahawks 24-20 & Patriots 31-17. 

Third Annual NFL Preview!

Can Brady & Gronk lead the Patriots back to the Super Bowl?

It's finally here, the NFL season. After a long wait I got to see my Giants lose the season opener to everyone's favorite team to hate, the Cowboys. Hopefully my picks go better than that game. And there's reason to believe they will! As I'm fond of telling people last year was the third consecutive season I've correctly predicted the AFC Champion,* & I got the the Super Bowl entirely right two years ago. Of course last season I also picked the Browns to make the playoffs, but let's not talk about that. It's going to be a fascinating season as an unprecedented five rookie QBs are set to start week one, the Saints continue to deal with bounty-gate (the players suspensions were overturned but the coach's suspensions have not, & that's more important), Peyton Manning's suiting up for the Broncos, & TIM TEBOW! So let's get on to the picks...

Matz Bowl II, otherwise known as Super Bowl XLVI, Preview!

Manning vs. Brady in Indy-we've seen it before, but never like this.

Before I get into any analysis & the pick I’d like to take this moment to gloat, so if you don’t want to read that skip a paragraph down. For the third straight year I’ve correctly predicted (in the pre-season) one of the Super Bowl participants (New England). In addition I saw the Giants/Patriots rematch coming before anyone else. As soon as the wild card round was over I saw it lining up even as Packers fans cried about how they were being disrespected prior to their loss & 49ers players & fans were yelling about how nobody had it better than them before the revived Alex Smith fell apart on third down.¹ & realizing this helped lead me to go 9-1 predicting the winner in the playoffs (Ok so picking T.J. Yates against the Ravens proved to be ill advised). Now we’ll have to see if I can finish this year with a correct Super Bowl XLVI pick.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.