Super Bowl XLVII Preview!

In this biggest brother versus brother battle since
 the Civil War who will come out on top?

After being teased with it last year, & thankfully avoiding it as a Giants fan, today we get to see the Harbaugh Bowl. As someone with a brother equally obsessed with sports I do find this to be fascinating, but of course you're probably already sick of hearing about them especially since really all most of us want is an exciting game & we could care less about the Harbaugh family dynamics but let me offer my one thought on the issue.

Doesn't this game have to mean more to John? Not just simplistically because it sucks to lose to your younger sibling but because John's been coaching football since 1984. What was Jim doing for many of those years? Playing quarterback in the NFL from 1987-2000 (where he notably was the first player Ray Lewis sacked, & later a teammate of the deer-antler aficionado). You spend decades working your ass off, moving up the coaching ranks, while your brother experiences the glory of being an NFL QB. Then your brother spends just two years as an NFL assistant before getting a college head coaching job & now that you've finally reached the biggest game of your career, what you've been working towards for 28 years, there's your hot headed brother trying to take your glory in just his 2nd season as an NFL head coach. Yea, this game definitely means more to John.

As for the actual teams there's a narrative that they're similar smash mouth, tough defense, run the ball teams & while there's some truth to that it's overly simplistic. Sure they both like to run the ball but the Ravens do so with the great Vonta Leach leading the way at fullback, & never with their quarterback, while the Niners are the two tight end, pistol loving, team that makes running the football seem as exciting as any team without Adrian Peterson can.

On defense the 49ers are as good as they're perceived to be but the Ravens... they're a pretty big question mark. According to Football Outsiders DVOA ratings from 1999-2011 they were one of the top 6 defenses every season, but this year they were a mere 19th. Of course any Ravens fan will tell you injuries were a big part of this drop off & while top corner Ladarius Webb remains out this is the healthiest they've been all year & it seems to have paid off by the defense's far stronger play in the playoffs. To be sure 3 games is a small sample size, but those games were also against Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, & Tom Brady so this improvement seems to be more than random luck.

Cary Williams improvement at corner, though, remains suspect in my mind. He gave up 7.8 yards per pass in the regular season & yet in the playoffs he's nearly cut that number in half to 4.0 & has two interceptions. Has he really gone from one of the lesser corners in the league to one of the best? I find that hard to believe. According to Outsiders the Ravens ranked 20th against #1 receivers & 30th against #2 (they're actually very good, 6th, at covering other wideouts). Michael Crabtree could be poised for a big game, as could Randy Moss on some deep balls if the run game gets going & they can utilize play-action which has been a weakness for the Ravens.

I've picked against the Ravens in each of their playoff games thus far, in large part because I didn't believe in their defense, so feel free to ignore my thoughts on them but I don't think they can shut down San Fran's run game, even with a not suspiciously playing like he were 10 years younger Ray Lewis, & that will free up that play-action meaning the 49ers shouldn't have too much trouble finding the end zone (though if they do get stalled David Akers' shaky kicking bodes well for the Ravens). The question then becomes can Flacco & Rice keep up?

Accoring to both ESPN's QBR & Outsiders' DVOA Joe Flacco was a slightly below average QB in the regular season. In the post season he has the best QB rating & the third best QBR (Kaepernick is first after being third in the regular season). Flacco doubters will tell you he's only completing 55% of his passes, I'll tell you that completion percentages don't mean shit. You could complete close to 100% of your passes if all you did was check down (see: Alex Smith) but your team wouldn't win because you'd be predictable fail to stretch the field allowing the defense to come up & clog running lanes. Yards per pass is far more important & their Flacco's averaging a sterling 9.17 not to mention he's thrown 8 touchdowns to zero picks. You could point out that the Colts & Patriots were hardly elite pass defenses & Rahim Moore handed him 70 yards, & you'd be right, but as Bill Barnwell notes Flacco has shown consistent improvement in the playoffs from his rookie season to now. I'm not quite ready to say he's made the Eli Manning jump to being one of the 5 or 6 best QBs in the league but at this point I wouldn't underestimate him,* or Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith.

*Unless he's throwing to his left. During the regular season he completed only 49% of his passes for a horrific 5.1 yards per play when throwing left & in the playoffs he's only been worse, 41% & 4.1 YPP. Obviously he's been far better throwing to the middle & right-where he's been a downright sensational 64% & 13.3 YPP in the playoffs. Is he blind in his left eye? Did he blow the pop warner championship on an interception thrown to the left & since then he suffers from a crippling lack of confidence when throwing that direction? I don't know, but if your a Niners fan know that you've won any time he throws left & be terrified when he throws right. 

As for the Ravens run game it's been strong in the postseason but with bigger thanks to Bernard Pierce (169 yards on 6.3 yards per carry & zero fumbles) than Ray Rice (247 yards on 3.9 yards per carry & 2 lost fumbles). The fumbles, both against the Colts, can be written up as primarily a fluke but the fact remains Pierce has been the better runner in the playoffs. Now I'm not proposing they bench one of the best running backs in the NFL but it is of note. Also of note is that the 49ers have the best, & fastest, combo of middle linebackers in the NFL in Patrick Willis & NaVorro Bowman meaning not only is it hard to run against San Fran but they're one of the best equipped teams to deal with Rice as a receiver out of the backfield.

I'd be remiss if I didn't discuss the most important player on San Francisco's defense, Justin Smith, who tore his triceps against the Patriots in week 15. He's been able to play in the playoffs but he hasn't been the dominant force he usually is. Since he's a defensive tackle that obviously has an effect on the run defense, but as mentioned the Niners have great linebackers behind him, it's the pass rush his injury has most effected & in particular Aldon Smith. Through 13 games, with a healthy Justin, Aldon has 19.5 sacks & Michael Strahan's record of 22.5 seemed well within reach. In the 5 games, counting the Patriots game, since Justin's injury Aldon has zero (ZERO!) sacks. It's hard to believe Aldon is that dependent on Justin that he'd go from the best pass rusher in the league to a nobody, & Football Outsiders stats say the Niners have actually pressured QBs at the same rate, so maybe his, & the team's, lack of sacks has simply been bad luck but if they want to win tonight Aldon & the gang had best figure a way to bring Flacco to the ground regardless of Justin Smith's health.

Obviously this game could go either way. The Ravens could well finish their Giants like run & pull off a Super Bowl win after a relatively mediocre regular season or the Niners stout defense & exciting quarterback could take it all & potentially bring about a new Niners dynasty (Ok that last part is a bit of hyperbole, but it's possible). The one thing I'd bet hard money on is this game being much different than last year's meeting of the Harbaughs, a 16-6 snooze fest  that saw the Ravens win & featured a pathetic lack of offense (423 COMBINED yards) & Alex Smith get sacked 9 times. These offenses have proved much more potent since then, & both pass rushes have regressed, so we should be in for a far more engaging game.*

*I don't mean to say defensive battles can't be fun to watch, the 07 Giants/Patriots Super Bowl being a great example as well as many Ravens/Steelers battles, but last year the Niners simply looked inept in that game (& their NFC Championship loss to the Giants, which is why Alex Smith is no longer the starting QB) & the Ravens weren't that much better. 

So we're going to see more offense this time round & I think the Niners are going to have more of it with their diverse offense & talented quarterback being more than I think the Ravens can contain. Sorry John, you'll still be my favorite Harbaugh.

San Francisco 27, Baltimore 24*

*San Fran is favored by 3.5 so I'd take the Ravens in Vegas, or on any online betting sites I may or may not use. 

Super Bowl MVP: If you're placing a bet on Super Bowl MVP don't go with the obvious, & low odd, picks of Kaepernick or Gore, instead opt for Crabtree who I think is going to have a big game, & definitely has a much higher pay out. Shoot I'll take Crabtree outright.