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| Will the Harbaughs be disappointed again by Championship weekend? |
*I nailed the Packers over Steelers back in 2010-11. Imagine if I'd wagered on that matchup before the season... Damn.
**With it being one of my friends last weekend in Tucson before moving to NYC I didn't find the time to write up my picks for the Sunday games but, as posted on my facebook, they were Seahawks 24-20 & Patriots 31-17.
FALCONS (+4.5) over Niners
As mentioned above I picked the Falcons to make it to the Super Bowl at the start of the season writing:
Atlanta's only one season removed from going 14-2 & being the number one seed & yet to many people they're an afterthought. People explain this by pointing out there 0-3 record in the playoffs the last 4 years while failing to realize the three three teams they lost to all went to the Super Bowl & two of them won it. The truth is Matt Ryan has the weapons for this to be among the best passing offenses in the league & I fully expect them to fulfill that potential & the additions of Asante Samuel at corner & Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator should make the defense nearly as dangerous as the offense.
Of course I then bailed on them last week because as much as I've always liked Matt Ryan (ever since he led Boston College back from a 2 score deficit in the 4th quarter against Virginia Tech––my #2 college team––I've respected his game) I'd been blown away by Russell Wilson's play over the 2nd half of the season & thought the Seahawks had the better defense & running game. Actually I still think the Seahawks are the better team, but Ryan & the Falcons escaped with a victory & made me look the fool for bailing on them. Now they face the 49ers, a team I picked to miss the playoffs at 9-7* & then picked against them again last week (I really wanted a Packers/Seahawks rematch).
*I'd love to just say that if I'd known they'd switch from Smith to Kaepernick I'd have changed that prediction except... A. While I liked Kapernick in college I didn't exactly see this coming & B. When Smith got knocked out of their 8th game the 49ers were 5-2 & he was playing the best football of his career. I was going to be wrong no matter what.
That history would seem to suggest I'm definitely picking the Falcons however the 49ers are actually very similar to that Seattle team I just said is better than the Falcons. They're both led by former Pac-12 coaches & young, strong armed, athletic quarterbacks, the latter of which has largely given the Falcons trouble. They also have very good defenses & running backs. While the Niners defensive backs are not quite up to par with the Seahawks, few are, they were much stouter against the run then the Seahawks over the 2nd half of the season, as evidenced by the normally flaccid Falcons run game gashing Seattle for 167 yards on 26 carries (a healthy 6.4 yards per cary). Matt Ryan's not going to get that type of help on the ground against San Francisco,* nor is his third down safety valve, Tony Gonzalez, going to be running free very often with Patrick Willis & Navorro Bowman covering him. Furthermore one of San Francisco's few struggles defensively is covering third receivers but Atlanta's third wideout is Harry Douglas who finished with a mere 38 receptions, caught only one touchdown, & broke fifty yards only once all season. Matt Ryan's not likely to look his way.
*Some smart alecks might be point out that Green Bay ran for 104 yards on only 16 carries. I'd remind them that Justin Smith will be a week healthier & that for whatever struggles the Packers had on the ground they gained over 300 yards more than the Falcons 29th ranked rushing attack. Last week was an aberration––Atlanta's terrible at running the ball.
On defense Atlanta's got to hope to pressure Kaepernick because, as Football Outsiders points out, he was even worse than most when pressured this season averaging only 3.8 yards per pass. Problem is only four teams had less sacks than the Falcons this year & John Abraham, who had 10 of their 29, won't be 100%. It also doesn't help that Atlanta struggles to cover tight ends, you might've noticed Zach Miller running uncovered a few times last week, & San Fran has Vernon Davis.
Even the Falcons home field advantage is somewhat of an aberration. Sure, discounting a meaningless week 17 game against the Bucs, they're 8-0 their this season but six of those wins are by 7 points or less. In essence the Falcons have been shockingly lucky at home particularly if they need to set up a game winning field goal as the Panthers & Seahawks can attest. Plus did you see the Niners play last week? They're unstoppable.
Or are they? As good as Kaepernick's been he still threw a pick six early against the Packers & while that obviously didn't shake him the tale may be different playing in the Georgia Dome rather than safely at home. & this Falcons defense is fairly adept at picking passes off, finishing fifth in the league & famously intercepting Peyton Manning three times in the first quarter. It's a guarantee Mike Nolan's not going to make it easy for Kaepernick to read his defenses.
San Francisco is also a pedestrian 2-2 on the road with Kaepernick. On the one hand he out dueled Tom Brady in New England, on the other he struggled as the Niners got demolished 42-13 in Seattle less than a month ago.
Meanwhile in the red zone the 49ers have been surprisingly bad on both sides of the ball. As Bill Barnwell notes with Kaepernick at quarterback San Fran has been the third-worst red zone offense (based on points per trip) & defensively they've been the fourth-worst, though they do make it awfully difficult to get there. The Falcons have been nearly their polar opposites ranking sixth on offense (with only the Patriots & Broncos having more trips inside the 20), & their defense fourth. I also don't think it's a secret that the Niners hardly want the game in the hand of David Akers, who only 2 weeks ago had to beat out Billy Cundiff in practice to keep his job, if they can't punch the ball into the end zone.
Clearly, as you'd expect when two teams have a combined 26 wins, there's a solid case for both teams to come out on top tomorrow but ultimately San Francisco is the more complete team & thus I expect them to come out on top even as Atlanta covers the spread.
San Francisco 26, Atlanta 24
Ravens (+8) over PATRIOTS
How is this line so high? The Ravens beat the Patriots this season! Since Joe Flacco became the starter the Ravens may be only 2-3 against the Patriots, 1-3 in New England, but the combined scores of those games are 125-117 Ravens. All of Baltimore's losses were by six points or less with the only blowout in the 5 games coming is the Raven's 33-14* massacre of the Patriots, in New England, during the 09-10 wild card round. Baltimore also just beat the Broncos on the road, a Broncos team that had been riding an 11 game win streak & was led by a man by the name of Peyton Manning. These Ravens are no slouches. Flacco seems to finally be coming into his own with a playoff leading 120.0 QB rating, & he's currently tied with Eli Manning for the most road playoff wins by a quarterback. Hell they even have the extra motivation of playing for inspirational leader, all around great guy,** leading playoff tackler, Ray Lewis as he finishes his distinguished career. Seriously, 8 points? It's like they're trying to trick us into picking the Ravens. Well I'm falling for it, but does that actually mean I'm picking the Ravens to pull of the upset?
**Or not.
One thing to definitely take into account when deciding who's more likely to win this game is the differences in the teams' personnel since their weak 3 game. On the plus side for the Ravens they have Terrell Suggs back whose presence has lead to an increased number of sacks even if he hasn't been the one getting them, but in the negative is the loss of Lardarius Webb (a big loss because he was really good, & Cary Williams is freaking horrible). For the Pats they'll obviously be without Rob Gronkowski due to his having the same bone density as Samuel L. Jackson in "Unbreakable", but Aaron Hernandez is healthy after missing their first matchup. The biggest difference though may be New England's midseason addition of Aqib Talib which has allowed them to Devin McCourty to safety, where he's more effective, & blitz nearly twice as much as they did prior to his arrival, all of which has significantly improved a pass defense that previously gave up 382 yards & 3 touchdowns to the Ravens. In fact Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots defense ahead of the Ravens, primarily due to their forcing 16 more turnovers.
If you'r thinking, "Wait? The Ravens defense isn't significantly better? Good God I understand the line now... Why didn't I do any research before betting my kids'* college money on Baltimore?!" I can certainly understand that sentiment but don't freak out just yet. Don't forget that the Ravens beat the Broncos after having lost to them by 17 earlier in the season, & they beat them in miracle fashion so maybe there's some crazy team of destiny thing going on here. It's also worth noting that the Patriots couldn't cover Torrey Smith the last time they played (six catches, 127 yards, 2 TDs) nor could Champ Bailey last week (three catches, 98 yards, 2 TDs) so there's no guarantee Talib will be able to slow him down especially if Flacco's on his game & as always that's a big part of what will decide this game. If Joe's converting third downs & accurate with his deep ball the Ravens can beat just about anyone, but if he has an off game they can get blown out of the water.
*I'm sorry to inform you but, yes, you do have kids. That's why you always wear the rubber even when she says she's on the pill. Or maybe you don't, in which case good job!
Of course there's a reason I put "just about" in that last sentence, even if Flacco & the Ravens' offense are at their best they're not quite these Patriots. Tom Brady's the best quarterback of the last 20 years* & this season the Patriots scored 76 points more than any other team, & 159 more than the Ravens. If Brady's his normal awesome self running their no huddle & the Raven's can't hold up the Patriots run game the Ravens simply can't keep up. The good news is Brady tends not to be at his peak against Baltimore, although he was great in week 3 in his previous 4 games against the Ravens he had 8 turnovers, & New England could manage only a pathetic 77 yards on 34 carries in week 1. Can they throw Brady off again while keeping the run game contained? It's possible but one imagines at best only one of those will happen.
*He has the record for playoff wins at 17, & the highest playoff winning percentage of the 8 QBs with at least 10 playoff wins. His main competition for this title, Peyton Manning, is 9-11 in the playoffs & has an inferior regular season & playoff QB rating to go along with a lower regular season winning percentage. Manning's great, but Brady's better.
Picking the Ravens to cover isn't much of a leap of faith but for them to win they have to play their best on both sides of the ball, anything less will result in a loss, & that's not a bet I'm willing to make.
New England 31, Baltimore 27
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