2020 NFL Preview

 A couple of months ago I wasn't sure we'd have an NFL season, a month ago I doubted we'd finish the season, but thus far the NFL's robust testing program has kept things running smoothly &, after some early stumbles, MLB also seems to be going well so *fingers crossed, knock on wood, say the Rosary, etc.* we might actually get a full season of the NFL! With that in mind here are my annual - & seemingly always late - predictions which will hopefully have the accuracy of Drew Brees on the football field & not Drew Brees reading the room. 

Four of these guys will be in the playoffs, you can probably guess which four. ESPN

   AFC Preview

AFC East

1. Bills         9-7 (4)

2. Patriots    8-8

3. Jets          4-12

4. Dolphins 4-12

Sean McDermott will be all smiles if the Bills unseat the Patriots. Associated Press

      Yep, I'm going there, down go the Patriots. That may not be so bold now, but it's by no means a given. There are some big reasons I'm worried about this Bills pick. Or, more accurately, there's one big reason - Josh Allen. In the past two years we've seen both the Jaguars & Bears go down in flames a year after their defenses carried a mediocre young QB to the playoffs, so if this goes wrong it's not like we haven't seen it before, & 17/71 (24%) on passes over 20 yards last season (per Robert Mays of The Athletic) is not exactly a number that builds confidence. To be sure, Allen showed vast improvement on passes under 20 yards, the rest of the offense is more than solid, especially after the additions of Stefon Diggs & Zach Moss, while Tre'Davious White & the defense should be top five in the league, so even with Tebow 2.0 the Bills have an excellent opportunity to win their first division title since 1995.

      Working with the best set of DBs in the league & with a former MVP at the helm of his offense it wouldn't be a surprise if Bill Belichick keeps New England atop the AFC East, but there are a few too many question marks causing me to doubt the team can continue their run of dominance. As good as the Patriots defense was last year their turnover rate (a league leading 25 interceptions) is unsustainable & it was actually the first time the Pats had ranked inside the top 10 in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA since 2007. Even if they hadn't lost a number of starters to free agency & opting out due to COVID they'd be headed for regression. And while Cam Newton provides hope for the offense he has little to work with at wide receiver or tight end & the retirement of famed offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia leaves them with question marks up front too. It's going to be tough sledding on offense. 

     

      The Jets have reasons for optimism. They were the most injured team in the NFL last year with players missing a league leading 160 games due to injury, including three because of Sam Darnold's mono hiatus. In fact the Jets had a winning record with Darnold. So why do I have them dropping three games from last year? I simply don't buy the idea that Darnold can carry both one of the worst supporting casts in the league & Adam Gase's coaching to anything near league average & while defensive coordinator Greg Williams did fine work last year it will be difficult for the the effectiveness of his defense to match the size of his ego without either safety Jamal Adams or any effective edge rushers. I think it's all going to fall apart, maybe the next coach can salvage Darnold.

      

      While Brian Flores & Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't keep the Dolphins out of last place they surprised many, including yours truly, by avoiding the worst record in the league last year. Despite that they still managed to grab Fitzpatrick's replacement in Tua Tagovailoa without trading up in the draft, it was the best case scenario all around for Miami. This season isn't likely to be much different so far as wins & losses go, but that doesn't mean the team won't show progress. With the addition of Byron Jones & Kyle Van Noy, Flores should be able to craft a more respectable defense than last year's league worst unit, & on offense it may well be the less of Tua we see the better, considering his hip injury last season & their still atrocious offensive line, but receivers DaVante Parker & Preston Williams provide reason for optimism regardless of who's playing QB. It won't happen this season, but next year this team could be competing for a division title. 

AFC North

1. Ravens  12-4 (2)

2. Steelers 10-6 (5)

3. Browns  9-7  (7)

4. Bengals  7-9

      Baltimore is unlikely to match last season's 14-2 mark because, well, no team is ever likely to post a record like that in back-to-back seasons, the actual team should remain among the league's best. Sure, teams have had a whole offseason to study the Ravens offense but even if OC Greg Roman & QB Lamar Jackson hadn't been working on adding new wrinkles themselves, & they surely have, stopping this speedy offense would still be easier said than done. Defensively the loss of Earl Thomas hurts but plenty of talent remains in the secondary & the pass rush will only be stronger with the addition of the perpetually underrated Calais Campbell. Baltimore may win fewer games this year, but the team might actually be better. 

      Steelers fans are likely filled with optimism this season. Last year they managed to go 8-8, preserving Mike Tomlin's incredible 13 years of coaching without a losing record, despite being stuck with the comedy duo of Mason Rudolph & Devlin Hodges at quarterback for most of the season. That was one hell of an accomplishment, & I share those fans' belief that this season will be much more enjoyable, but a few words of caution for those who think they can overtake the Ravens. Yes, the defense will still be very good but defense tends to vary more from year to year so this season's unit may not be quite as good as last's, & while Ben Roethlisberger's return means the offense will be competent again it's worth keeping in mind he's a 38-year-old coming off elbow surgery - not exactly the most encouraging situation. So I'd keep my expectations in check, but I'd also enjoy a team capable of completing a forward pass again. 

      Ah, the Browns. Last year I hopped aboard the hype train, declaring they'd win 10 games after "upgrading their coaching staff across the board." Well, this year I'm jumping on the post-hype train, predicting 9 wins, & telling you they've upgraded their coaching staff across the board. I'm still buying into Baker Mayfield as a top 15 QB, especially now that they've added competent tackles to protect him, Austin Hooper to give the team a strong two tight end set, & coach Kevin Stefanski's play-action attack to best utilize his skills. On the other side of the ball their linebackers are scary bad but there's solid talent throughout the rest of the defense & new DC Joe Woods was my top DC hire of the offseason after helping the 49ers reach the Super Bowl as their defensive back coach & passing game coordinator. Don't throw in the towel on the Browns just yet. 

I can't quit you. Norm Hall/Getty Images

      Speaking of Joe's, Joe Burrow provides the most hope for the Bengals since... I'm not entirely sure because I was only born in 1990. Regardless, Ohio's homegrown son should provide an immediate spark in Cincinnati after having the greatest college football season ever seen, & there's reason to believe, despite Bobby Hart starting at RT, that he can help get the team back to respectability sooner rather than later. Last season the Bengals went 0-7 in one score games, suggesting that purely by having their luck balance out they ought to pick up a couple of wins. Beyond Burrow the offense is also adding their best offensive linemen in 2019 first round pick Jonah Williams, & best playmaker in WR A.J. Green, after both missed last season due to injury. Throw in an influx of talent on defense after a rare spending spree in free agency & this team has the potential to challenge for .500. 

AFC South

1. Colts    11-5 (3)

2. Titans   9-7 (6)

3. Texans  6-10

4. Jaguars 3-13

      After the Andrew Luck retirement bombshell dropped in the 2019 preseason the Colts 2019 season seemed lost before it began, but Frank Reich's team battled throughout & may well have made the playoffs if not for an injury to Jacoby Brissett & the most clutch kicker of all time going full Vanderjagt all year. This year looks to be different with the addition of Philip Rivers. Rivers may be past his prime but he's still an effective quarterback, especially now that he'll be working behind the best offensive line in football & reunited with the coach who helped him average 31 touchdown passes in the three years they spent together in San Diego. Throw in a powerful run game, solid defense, & one of the easiest schedules in the league & Indianapolis should be back in the playoffs. 

      After last year's run to the AFC title Titans fans might be hoping for more than a fourth straight 9-7 finish, but I'm skeptical this team is more than an above average squad that road a hot streak through December & January. With a good o-line, beast RB, receivers who can make plays after the catch, & Arthur Smith's creative play calling Ryan Tannehill should remain better than he was in Miami, but unless he's the second coming of Rich Gannon it's silly to believe we saw a true breakout season by a 31-year-old last year. Even with all of the good stuff I just said about the rest of the offense, going from having a guy playing like a top 5 QB to one who's the 15th best QB is going to make things more difficult. And while Jadaveon Clowney provides an added punch to the defense, his presence will be at least somewhat offset by the loss of defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Finally, the team is bound to be more injured than last season. Injuries are, by and large, luck & the Titans were the least injured team in the AFC last year, finishing in the top 7 in fewest games lost on offense & defense. Things won't be so rosy this year. 

      It brings me no pleasure to predict the downfall of the Texans. Beyond my love of Deshaun Watson, I have a good friend who works for the team so I'd hate for him to suffer through a losing season, but I struggle to see how this plays out well for Houston. Trading away DeAndre Hopkins for a running back who was last elite in 2016 remains one of the more bizarre moves, in any sport, in recent memory. Sure, Will Fuller & Brandin Cooks form a solid receiving duo, but only so long as they're both able to stay on the field, & while Laremy Tunsil keeps Watson's blind side protected the rest of the offensive line remains a work in progress. This was only an average offense with Hopkins on board. The team finally moved on from the ancient Jonathan Joseph at cornerback, but the position didn't improve so much as become mediocre in different ways. Really the whole defense could be described as J.J. Watt, Zach Cunningham, Justin Reid, & spare parts. If, God forbid, Watt were to go down again this would be a bottom five defense. 

Gonna be a long year for Watson & the Texans. Troy Taormina USA TODAY Sports

      Your worst team of 2020, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gardner Minshew was better than anyone could've expected last season, but better than expected should not be confused with good, & better than expected is all this team can hope for this year. There are players to be excited about, D.J. Chark looks to be a legitimate #1 receiver, Josh Allen staked his claim as the good Josh Allen & could become a premiere pass rusher this year, & rookie corner C.J. Henderson has the talent to eventually replace Jalen Ramsey. So whoever's coaching this team next year will have something to work with. This season though TIAA Bank Field was going to be at severely limited capacity even without COVID. 

AFC West

1. Chiefs    13-3 (1)

2. Broncos   8-8

3. Raiders   6-10

4. Chargers 6-10

      There's not a whole lot to say about Kansas City, they're just really really good. They have the best QB, a coach who's an offensive genius, a good offensive line, elite tight end, the fastest receiving corps in the league, & a new weapon at running back. They're going to score a lot of points. The defense isn't great, but doesn't have to be. There will probably be some regression on that side of the ball after the team went from 27th to 14th in DVOA, but that's not something that's likely to hurt them in the regular season. The only thing standing in the way between them & the #1 seed, with its lone bye, is likely to be their week 3 trip to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. 

This man is good at football. David Eulitt/Getty Images

      I toyed with picking the Broncos to make the playoffs. As mentioned in the Bills section we've seen a team with a young QB & strong defense make the playoff leap for three straight years, & Denver is the team that best fits that mold this year, but a few things are holding me back. Outside of the unnecessary addition of Melvin Gordon, I love everything the Broncos did to build around Drew Lock - especially their additions of route runner extraordinaire Jerry Jeudy & speed demon K.J. Hamler in the draft - but I'm still not sold on Lock himself. He had moments last year, but the bad footwork & breakdowns under pressure that dropped him to the second round didn't disappear either, I wouldn't go past cautious optimism for now. In year two under Vic Fangio the defense could well take the leap toward elite, especially with the additions of Jurrell Casey & A.J. Bouye, but losing Von Miller for the season last week makes that exponentially harder. Lastly, their schedule is just really hard. Whether you look at Outsiders' projections or ESPN's Football Power Index, it's a top 5 schedule. It's still possible, no one saw the Bears coming & it was Fangio running that defense, but next year feels more likely. 

      

      Both this year & last I'll occasionally read or hear someone hyping the Raiders as a potential surprise team, & I'm always at a loss for what they see in this team. Derek Carr just seems like a less athletic Alex Smith. The offensive line is fine, but not so good they can elevate the rest of the team. Josh Jacobs is good, but not so good that he excuses using a first round pick on a running back. Without the ability to ask other GMs when a player should be drafted, as he could in his analyst days, Mike Mayock keeps taking players 10 to 20 picks earlier than he should, preventing the team from building the proper talent level to get back to the playoffs, especially on defense. Jon Gruden remains capable of building up an offensive scheme, so maybe the believers will be right, but I think it's more likely he starts playing QB musical chairs with Carr & Mariota than this team makes the playoffs. 

      After a brief reprieve in 2019 the Chargers went back to being cursed last year, going 2-9 in one score games & losing over 100 games due to injury. They responded by moving on from Philip Rivers & drafting Justin Herbert as the heir apparent, though he'll wait behind Tyrod Taylor for now. But a new QB & a new stadium weren't enough to remove the curse as Swiss Army knife of a safety Derwin James was lost for the season during training camp. That's not to say all hope is lost. Chris Harris came over from the Broncos improving an already strong group of corners & Bryan Bulaga ensures that at least one offensive tackle will be able to block this year, potentially giving whoever is playing QB time to find one of LA's talented receivers. As mentioned before, that will be Tyrod to start the season but with the Chiefs, Saints, & Bucs all scheduled in the first five weeks it probably won't be long till we see Herbert. 

                                      NFC Preview

NFC East

1. Cowboys        13-3 (1)

2. Eagles             10-6 (6)

3. Giants              5-11

4. Football Team 4-12

Did the Cowboys upgrade their head coach? Probably. Rodger Mallison/Fort Worth Star-Telegram

      Last year I was spot on with my prediction of the Cowboys going 8-8, hopefully this year I'm way off. Alas, I think Dallas is going to be very good this year. Gone is Jason Garrett, king of clapping, & in his place is former Super Bowl winning coach Mike McCarthy. I've been critical of McCarthy in the past, & called for his firing in Green Bay long before it happened, but he's smart enough to favor the pass, has been consistently aggressive on fourth downs (except in the playoffs where he loves to kick field goals, but I digress), & claims to have gotten into analytics in his year away from coaching. The first sign he knew what he was going in Dallas though was in keeping offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in place. Moore provided a spark to the offense (It turns out pre-snap motion is good!), guiding Dak Prescott to a career best season. That offense, second in DVOA last year, looks to only be better with the addition of CeeDee Lamb, complimenting the already dangerous Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup. It will need to be if the Cowboys are to reach 13 wins, because after the loss of corner Byron Jones the defense is unlikely to elevate past the aggressive mediocrity of last season, but there's little reason to believe this offense won't be dominant. 

      The Eagles are like the inverse of the Chargers. They're constantly beset by bad injury luck, losing a potential MVP before their Super Bowl run, starting scout team wide receivers because everyone else is hurt, & yet they persevere & even prosper despite it all. This year looks no different. In week 1 they're already down starting running back Miles Sanders, #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery, & starting left tackle Andre Dillard is out for the season. Unlike most teams however the loss of their left tackle isn't a death knell to the Eagles offensive efficiency, as they moved nine time pro bowler Jason Peters back to LT after they'd previously planned on using him at guard. And while Sanders & Jeffery's absences will hurt Carson Wentz will likely just be glad he's throwing to recognizable faces after last season. Wentz & coach Doug Pederson will make sure the offense functions, while Jim Schwartz will attempt to get his defense back to elite level now that Darius Slay has arrived to give him a true number one corner to go with his ferocious defensive line. Things are never easy for Philadelphia, but I trust they'll keep figuring things out all the same. 

      As the Giants looked for a new coach I prayed they'd go with a special teams coordinator, they did, only I wanted Dave Toub, special teams coordinator for 16 years & assistant head coach in Kansas City the last two years. Instead the Giants opted for a man 19 years his junior, Belichick/Saban disciple Joe Judge. I have no idea if his hard driving ways are exactly what this team needs, or if we'll be back to searching for answers (preferably without Dave Gettleman) in two more years, but at least it'll be more entertaining than the McAdoo & Shurmur eras. Of course the biggest decider in whether Judge will be successful is the progression of Daniel Jones. I HATED the Daniel Jones pick, not because Gettleman took him at 6 rather than 18 (An honestly stupid criticism, he's a QB, if you love him you take him & don't give anyone else the chance to steal him) but because I didn't think Jones was worth a first, or second, round pick at all. Thankfully he showed enough ability last year that it's clear I underestimated him, even if it's not certain he's the long term answer yet. With the skill position players finally healthy Jones play this year should go a long way toward answering that question, & I think there's a real chance the offense will be good. Sadly the same cannot be said about the defense. With a lack of proven pass rushers & mediocre linebackers things were already going to be rough before 2nd round safety Xavier McKinney was lost for half the season & last year's first round corner DeAndre Baker was released after deciding it was a good idea to rob a card game at gunpoint. Godspeed to new DC Patrick Graham. 

      It's been quite the offseason for Washington. They hired a proven winner as their new head coach, ditched their old racist name but forgot to add a new one, released a highly drafted running back after he was arrested for domestic violence (Two women have since alleged he raped them in college), & their owner remains despite overseeing an organization filled with rampant misogyny that included multiple cases of sexual harassment. Whatever good karma might have been accrued by the name change will be eternally offset so long as Daniel Snyder remains, but let's talk about the actual Football Team. Dwayne Haskins got off to a brutal start last year but progressed throughout the season to give Washington fans hope they've finally found their franchise QB. He won't have a lot of help though with Terry McLaurin his only proven weapon & the left side of his line shaky at best. There's more reason for optimism on defense where generational prospect Chase Young should reinvigorate a talented line that had an off season last year. They'll need to get consistent pressure though because their corner situation isn't any better than the Giants, & their defensive coordinator might have a melt down come November. Washington will be better this year, but not a whole lot. 

NFC North

1. Lions    9-7 (4)

2. Packers 9-7

3. Vikings 7-9

4. Bears    5-11

      Yes, I'm actually serious, the Detroit Lions will win the NFC North. Do I feel super confident in that declaration? No, Matt Patricia is still their head coach so it's impossible to feel confident, but hear me out on why it could happen. Reason number one is Matthew Stafford. Before Stafford went down the Lions were 3-4-1, with three of those losses by one score. They went winless without him, but even then four of those eight losses were by a single possession. This team was in games, & with the return of their quarterback they should be able to turn a lot of those close losses into wins. T.J. Hockenson also figures to be vastly improved as tight ends usually take a year to develop, which will make the Lions hell to defend with Kenny Golladay & Marvin Johnson on the outside. The defense is the real question mark, but talent has been added. Jamie Collins & Duron Harmon are the latest Patriots to be added to the Lions, Desmond Trufant & #3 overall pick Jeffrey Okudah give Patricia the man cover corners he's craved, & Julian Okwara joins his brother to add to the pass rush. If the Lions don't at least contend for the division title Patricia will absolutely deserve to be fired. 

If the Lions win the North Jeffrey Okudah will be a reason why. Birm/Letterman Row

      After last season's NFC Championship birth you'd have thought the Packers would go all in on winning a title, but it really feels like they went the other way with it. They failed to add any meaningful receiving talent, despite having an absolute dearth of it after Davante Adams, & failed to address their weakness at stopping the run that saw the 49ers gash them for 285 yards in that NFC title game. Instead they drafted Aaron Rodgers replacement, & seemed to go all in on becoming a running team by taking a RB & TE with their next two picks. Maybe this will all work out in the long run but it's not going to help a team that was destined to fall back to earth without additional reinforcements. Green Bay went 6-1 in one score games last year & based on their point differential they overachieved by 3 wins, more than any other team. Perhaps a pissed off Aaron Rodgers can get back to the MVP level he once played at & none of this will matter, but it's more likely the Packers will be hovering around .500 rather than contending for another top two seed. 

      Minnesota is another likely regression candidate. They lost a host of defensive starters, have a more difficult schedule, had a +11 turnover margin (Turnover margins of +10 or more usually trend back toward even the following year), & were the least injured team in all of football. To be fair, Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind, they'll still have the best pair of safeties in the league, & they added Yannick Ngakoue, so the defense isn't going to fall of a cliff but a step back seems likely. The loss of OC Kevin Stefanski is offset by Gary Kubiak taking the reins but Stefon Diggs is gone, Dalvin Cook is injury prone, & the center of the line could still be a mess. Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than he gets credit for, but he's not a guy who can carry a team & he might need to if the Vikings are to get back to the playoffs. 

      I might be overly low on the Bears. They still have a good defense led by Khalil Mack, & they added one of my favorite players in the draft to it with corner Jaylon Johnson. Their receivers aren't bad with Allen Robinson leading the way & Anthony Miller a breakout candidate, & Matt Nagy knows how to scheme them open. But... Mitchell Trubisky. I'm well past the point of believing in him at all, & even if/when they turn to Nick Foles it's not like he got the Jaguars to many any wins last year. Foles would still give me more confidence, at his best he's well beyond Trubisky, but his best doesn't come consistently. I'm also worried that every year the Bears defense gets further away from having Vic Fangio as their coordinator the closer they'll creep to average. Chicago could contend in this mediocre division, but it's too easy to imagine the bottom falling out instead. 

NFC South

1. Saints    12-4 (2)

2. Bucs      11-5 (5)

3. Falcons   7-9

4. Panthers 4-12

      For the past three years New Orleans has been an elite team done in by heartbreaking losses, two of them rather improbable, & now they bring it all back one last time before Drew Brees retires & the team hits salary cap Armageddon. The good news is they're running it back with the most complete roster in football. Brees remains one of the five best QBs in the game, & Jameis Winston takes Teddy Bridgewater's place as the overqualified backup. Emmanuel Sanders joins Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, & Jared Cook, to give Brees an incredible range of targets, they have the best pair of tackles in the game, & & Taysom Hill is there in case Sean Payton gets bored. The oft overlooked defense is solid at every level, & could be among the league's best, especially with Malcolm Jenkins addition on the back end. Shoot even their kicker is a pro bowler. The division isn't a guarantee with Tom Brady in Tampa, but Brees & co. should get another legit shot at a title. 

      How you feel about the Bucs chances depends almost entirely on how you feel about Tom Brady, obviously I'm a believer. Yes, last year was his worst season since before I was in high school & he's 43-years-old, but give him Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, & his old pal Gronk & I think he'll look a little different than he did with the Patriots' Edelman + hodgepodge of mediocrity last year. And it's not like Gronk is the only tight end the Bucs have on hand, if anyone can bring out O.J. Howard's latent talent it's Brady, & Cameron Brate is still around too. As long as rookie Tristan Wirfs holds up at right tackle the offense should put up points. The defense is primed for regression after Todd Bowles led a massive improvement in 2019, but if Devin White develops & Antoine Winfield Jr. plays anything like his dad this could remain a top ten unit. It won't hurt that the defense won't have to start on their own side of the field once a game anymore either. Tampa should be right there with the Saints battling for the both the South & the NFC crown. 

Do Gronk & Brady have enough left in the tank to get Tampa back to the playoffs? Douglass P. DeFelice/Getty Images

       Assuming some improvement from the offensive line Atlanta should be back to having a high flying attack that keeps them in any game, but they don't have the defense you want in a division with Drew Brees & Tom Brady. Matt Ryan had a down year in 2019, largely because of the increased pressure he faced. Jake Matthews & Alex Mack remained excellent at LT & C, but the rest of the line struggled mightily. Both starters on the right side are entering their second seasons though, so there's hope they'll improve, & last season was a career nadir for James Carpenter at LG so he should reasonably be able to bounce back toward average. If that happens then look out. Julio Jones & Calvin Ridley have the potential to overtake the Bucs as the best pair of receivers in the NFL, Hayden Hurst is a quality replacement for Austin Hooper, & the shell of Todd Gurley should be more productive than the shell of Devonta Freeman. The trouble is defense matters too, & Atlanta doesn't have a good one. Sure, they played better down the stretch when Raheem Morris took over, but the Falcons have played better in the last two months of every season Dan Quinn has coached & yet they're always awful at the start of the following season. They're also relying on corners in their first & second seasons, not ideal coming off a limited preseason & in a division loaded with elite receivers. Drew Brees once went 7-9 for three consecutive seasons, & four out of five, because the Saints consistently failed to field a quality defense, Matt Ryan & the Falcons are stuck in a similar rut. 

      Carolina seems destined to be this years fun but bad team (Last year's was the Cardinals). Teddy Bridgewater finally gets his chance to shine with Christian McCaffrey & D.J. Moore as ideal weapons in wunderkind Joe Brady's offense. The offensive line is shaky but Bridgewater likes to get the ball out of his hands quickly while McCaffrey & Moore are extremely capable of making plays after the catch, so they should be able to overcome the line's limitations well enough. Like Atlanta though, defense is going to be a problem. Luke Kuechly is gone & even with him this was the 26th ranked defense by DVOA. The Panthers are also slated to have four rookies involved on defense, three starting, including one at corner. This season, especially early on, is going to be rough. Matt Rhule is used to this, he went 2-10 his first year at Temple & 1-11 at Baylor, by his second year at each stop he got his team to at least .500, & ten wins by year three. He'll hope to follow a similar pattern in Carolina. 

NFC West

1. 49ers        11-5 (3)

2. Seahawks  9-7 (7)

3. Cardinals   8-8

4. Rams         7-9 

      I'm doubtful that San Francisco can be as dominant as they were last season, winning 13 games with all three of their losses coming in the final minute, but they should be good enough to come out on top of the best division in the NFC. The offense will face difficulties early with Deebo Samuel out for at least the first three weeks & Emmanuel Sanders in New Orleans, but Trent Williams should give Jimmy G a little more time & no one is better at scheming open receivers than Kyle Shanahan. Defensively the loss of DeForest Buckner hurts, but first rounder Javon Kinlaw & a healthy Dee Ford should make up for that. My only real worry with the defense is that DB coach Joe Woods is gone. Last year's defensive improvement has largely been credited to the arrival of Nick Bosa & defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's move to a wide-9 front, the combination of which unleashed the best defensive line in football. I don't think any of that is wrong but, like Bosa, Woods wasn't around in 2018 when the 49ers defense was below average & then he was the passing game coordinator in 2019 & the defense flourished. I still think the defense will be very good, but regression & the loss of Woods means it probably won't be great.

      Seattle has the second best quarterback in football & they added Jamal Adams to their defense, giving them their best group of defensive backs since the legion of boom, so why do I have them dropping off by two games & only making the playoffs via tiebreaker? Like the Packers & Vikings they had a high turnover margin that will be difficult to repeat. Also like Green Bay they overachieved by about 3 wins compared to their point differential & were incredibly lucky in close games, going 9-2. Even if you buy into the idea that Wilson is clutch enough to give the Seahawks an advantage in those games 9-2 isn't sustainable. They also lost Jadaveon Clowney. With him they finished 30th in adjusted sack rate. Having no pass rush is a bit of a problem. That said, they may have the best back 7 in football. Bobby Wagner remains the best LB in the game, Shaquill Griffin & Quinton Dunbar (who avoided chargers in the Deandre Baker robbery) are a fine pair of coiners, & Quandre Diggs compliments Adams on the back end. And, of course, Wilson is a magician with the best receivers he's ever had & a powerful running back in Chris Carson. Seattle should still win more than they lose, as they always do with Wilson, but it could be a little harder this year. 

      Two years ago I predicted the 49ers would make the playoffs, they went 4-12, then made the Super Bowl last year. A year ago I bet on the Browns to punch their ticket to the playoffs, that didn't happen but I'm optimistic they can do it this year. I've learned my lesson, it's OK to be patient & not get carried away by the hype train. So I've got the Cardinals going 8-8 & coming up just short of the playoffs. Another year to build up the defense & o-line, & Arizona should be ready to contend. It could happen this season though. Kyler Murray is the real deal, Kliff Kingsbury proved adaptable, & now they both get to work with DeAndre Hopkins. It's an exciting time in the desert, & it would be great to see Larry Fitzgerald on a winning team again. Like I said though, the offensive line still needs work & while Chandler Johnson & Patrick Peterson are great, with Isaiah Simmons an exciting rookie, it'll take more to transform this defense into a solid unit. Patience. 

Chandler Jones has averaged 15 sacks since coming to AZ in 2016. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

      The Rams could certainly bounce back, they still have Sean McVay designing the offense & Aaron Donald slamming through opposing o-lines, but the problems that sunk them last year haven't gone anywhere. The non-Andrew Whitworth members of the offensive line need to improve/rebound to their previous level of play otherwise Jared Goff's going to continue to struggle. If they do, this could once again be an explosive offense with a talented group of receivers & strong stable of young running backs. Donald remains the best player in the NFL, & Jalen Ramsey can lock people down, but Dante Fowler & his 11.5 sacks are gone, as is Eric Weddle, & Corey Littleton. That's only their second best pass rusher, starting safety & one of the better cover linebackers. And they weren't the only departures, Wade Phillips is no longer the defensive coordinator & there are few defensive minds on his level. I don't see LA getting back to the postseason, not in this division. 

Awards

MVP: Patrick Mahomes (Runner-up: Dak Prescott)

Coach: Mike McCarthy (Runner-up: Bill Belichick)

OPOY: Christian McCaffrey (Runner-up: Derrick Henry)

DPOY: Myles Garrett (Runner-up: Tre'Davious White)

OROY: Joe Burrow (Runner-up: Clyde Edwards-Helaire)

DROY: Chase Young (Runner-up: Patrick Queen)

Comeback: Ben Roethlisberger (Runner-up: Matthew Stafford)

After an MVP type season Dak is going to be laughing his way to the bank. Associated Press

Playoffs

AFC Championship: Ravens over Chiefs

NFC Championship: Saints over Bucs

Super Bowl: Ravens 30, Saints 24
MVP: Marquise Brown

Like Mahomes last year, Lamar Jackson swaps the MVP trophy for the Lombardi trophy. Baltimore Ravens.com