2020 NFL Preview

 A couple of months ago I wasn't sure we'd have an NFL season, a month ago I doubted we'd finish the season, but thus far the NFL's robust testing program has kept things running smoothly &, after some early stumbles, MLB also seems to be going well so *fingers crossed, knock on wood, say the Rosary, etc.* we might actually get a full season of the NFL! With that in mind here are my annual - & seemingly always late - predictions which will hopefully have the accuracy of Drew Brees on the football field & not Drew Brees reading the room. 

Four of these guys will be in the playoffs, you can probably guess which four. ESPN

2014 NFL Preview

Can Seattle become the first team to repeat in 10 years?

I love college football. It's fantastic, & this year there's even a playoff! With that said the highlight of my fall weekends is the Christian, not the Jewish*, Sabbath. In the NFL you actually know who all of the players are. Unless you're a Raiders fan, every season you can talk yourself into believing your team is going to make the playoffs &, after the recent playoff runs of the Giants, Cardinals, & Ravens, that means they've got a chance to win it all! Does it help that my team, the Giants, have won 2 of the last 7 Super Bowls while the Arizona Wildcats have never made a Rose Bowl? Absolutely! But that's exactly my point: The NFL is what people want to believe America is like –– a place where if you plan right & work hard you can lift yourself from the bottom to the top of society –– while college football is what America really is –– a place with a giant divide of haves & have nots where the occasional surprise success story provides the illusion of hope. That's why I prefer the NFL, even with moral questionability of the entire enterprise, so I'm super excited for another season of madness that will surely make many of my following picks look shockingly foolish.**

*If we're being totally honest Judaism has it right. Christianity sold out the Sabbath, & a bunch of other things, for converts.

**But not all of them! Unlike any of ESPN's 36 experts last season I correctly predicted the Panthers to get the 2 seed in the NFC, in addition to predicting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, the Falcons to fall off (though not that drastically), & the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Does it matter than I also had the Giants & Bucs in the playoffs? Yeah... I know it does.

NFL Wild Card Picks-Saturday

Can Brees & Payton figure out how to win the
 first road playoff game in Saints history?

You may have noticed, or not since only 5 or 6 people ever read this blog, that Joe's Junk has been on hiatus for 6 months. I wish I had some brilliant excuse for this like, I've been working to fight hunger in Haiti, or, I've been in a coma after diving in front of a car to save a small child (don't worry the kid was fine), but alas those things did not happen. No, the truth is simply that I'm pretty lazy & so the whole blog thing got pushed aside. But now I'm back for the 2014 NFL Playoffs! Wooh!

Now for the first time in 4 years (3 on the blog & 1 on facebook) I failed to type out an NFL preview but I did find the time to post my preseason playoff picks on facebook back in September:

AFC: 1. Denver 2. New England 3. Cincinnati 4. Houston 5. Pittsburgh 6. Kansas City 
NFC: 1. Seattle 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. New York 5. San Francisco 6. Tampa Bay 
AFC Championship: NE over DEN 
NFC Championship: SEA over GB 
Super Bowl: Seattle 27, New England 24

How'd I do? Well for comparisons sake here's a quick breakdown of how this season compared to my past predictions of the regular season:

2009: Playoff Teams-9/12  Division Winners-5/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2010: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-2/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2011: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-4/8  Bye Teams-1/4 

2012: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-3/8  Bye Teams-2/4

2013: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-6/8  Bye Teams-4/4* 

*Interesting tidbit--The AFC vs. NFC divide on playoff teams I've correctly predicted is minimal, I've nailed one more NFC pick, but the contrast in division winners is significant. I've hit on 60% of AFC division winners but only 40% of NFC winners. Tom Brady & Peyton Manning sure have made things easier to figure out over there. 

As you can see I'm certainly no seer, particularly the previous two seasons which were particularly brutal, but 2013 was a nice comeback. In fact, despite my horrid Houston, Tampa, & New York picks, I've bested the majority of experts. Shoot I'd say it was my best year considering I got all four of the bye teams not only correct but in the correct order of finish. I mean who else was telling you Carolina was not only going to win their division but earn a first round bye? Seriously go look at all 36 of ESPN's NFL writers' predictions, not one of them has Carolina even making the playoffs. What about Sports Illustrated's seven experts? Not a single one. Only Football Outsider's projections (which I pay close attention to) had them pegged for a playoff spot, but even then it was as the four seed. So I'm the only person, that I know of, who correctly predicted all four teams on a bye this week. That's not all though. The Carolina pick helped me exceed all 44 of the previous mentioned predictors in choosing division champs & only David Fleming of ESPN was able to correctly predict more total playoff teams than I did. He's the only guy out of all those experts who can claim to have out predicted me. 

Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can Tebow & the Broncos run past the Patriots?

It’s time for the best weekend of the NFL, the divisional round. We get to watch the 8 best teams (well, 7 & the Broncos) play in 4 games over 2 days. It should be awesome (unless the Giants lose, then all of life is pointless). Interestingly 3 of the 4 matchups are rematches from the regular season, 49ers/Saints being the lone exception. Not surprisingly the team that won the previous matchup is favored in each game, & at home, so one may well be inclined to just go with the favorites in all 3. However if you really think I’m that lazy with my picks (or smart, depending on your point of view) you don’t know me. & speaking of my picks I went 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall last week, my best week ever. Does this mean I’m finally figuring the NFL out, or that I just got really lucky? This week we’ll find out!

NFL Wild Card Picks

Can Calvin Johnson & the Lions dive past the Saints?

The NFL playoffs start today, which of course, means it’s time for my wild card round picks. Now before I get to them I’m going to offer a bit of honesty. I love to talk about how I have correctly predicted 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl teams in the pre-season & nailed the Packers over Steelers-coming within 6 points of the actual score & saying: “Rodgers asserts himself as a truly elite quarterback & Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).” However what I don’t like to mention is how terrible I am at predicting playoff games. Despite going a solid 6-5 last year my combined record over the last 3 years is an embarrassing 13-20. In fact last January was the first time I managed to avoid an 0-4 weekend. Hopefully this year will be different but, just in case, I’d like to apologize now for picking your team.

I would also like to add, before getting to my picks, that Sunday will mark the anniversary of the shooting that robbed 6 people of their lives, including 9-year-old Christina Taylor-Green, and injured Representative Gabriel Giffords and 12 others. While I stand by my original position that one of the best ways to honor the victims of that day is to cherish every moment of our lives, and if your like me that means watching football this weekend, I think it would benefit us all if we took at least some time out of our weekend to think about and pray for the victims, the shooter, and their families, as well as thank God that that day was not worse and for the blessings that are our lives and the people we love . And I think we should all strive to “[re]commit ourselves as Americans to forging a country that is forever worthy of [Christina’s] gentle, happy spirit.”