Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can the Panthers prove this fan wrong?

After a disappointing regular season of predictions I rebounded strong last week, starting the playoffs 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall. I'd be angry with Dallas for not covering except that their failure to easily handle the Lions allowed for the one thrilling playoff game of the weekend. In fairness, Baltimore-Pittsburgh was a solid game, the Bengals & Cardinals, however, were such a wreck offensively that they not only bored me to death for a combined 6 hours but they may have actually tricked people into thinking their opponents could win this week (SPOILERS!). This first round continued the horrible run of nationally televised games this season that saw 33 of 54 such games end with a margin of victory of 10 points or greater (That's 61 percent). Is it so much to ask for some drama?! Granted the drama in Dallas got overshadowed by a blown call but even then it was at least something to talk about.*

*What Dallas haters don't want to talk about is that Brandon Pettigrew also committed a penalty on the disputed play. And that even after the refs picked up the flag the Lions were up three with the ball & they should have gone for it facing a fourth and one from the Cowboys 41, or at least not punted 10 yards when Jim Caldwell chickened out, or maybe stopped the Cowboys when they twice converted key fourth downs in the second half, or perhaps completed one of their two (courtesy of Demarcus Lawrence's fumble) game winning drive opportunities. Suffice it to say the Cowboys won the game & the Lions lost it, regardless of the ref's screw up.

Thankfully, there's reason to believe this week's games will prove more entertaining. The two best barometers of a team's quality are point differential and Football Outsider's DVOA. In the eight teams left we have the top seven in point differential & the top six in DVOA, with DVOA less of a fan of the Colts, & the Panthers here thanks to the rest of the NFC South's abhorrence to playing defense & the sadness that is every Ryan Lindley pass. That sort of quality makes blowouts less likely, & the fact that the remaining squads are helmed by five Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, & three others who have all been to Pro Bowls, means that even if a team ends up down multiple scores early their fans need not start downing shots of Fireball less they still be sober for the 4th quarter. And if they're not close... we'll always have next week.

Now on to Saturday's picks... (Home teams in caps)

2011 NFL Draft Diary

It's time for my 2nd annual almost completely uneducated look at the first round of the NFL Draft (last year's draft diary can be viewed here). Let's do it...

#1-The Panthers go first &, no surprise here, destroy the franchise for the next half-decade by taking Cam Newton. Seeing as I’ve hated Newton since it came out that he and his dad, allegedly, took money for him to go to Auburn you can write off my criticism if you want. Fact is, however, that I’m not the only one questioning Cam’s work ethic & character. At other positions you can coast a little on talent & be an egomaniac, but it doesn’t work at the QB position (see Jeff George’s career & Bret Favre last year). I hate Jimmy Clausen & said last year he’d be garbage but this is a huge mistake. Should have traded down, taken Patrick Peterson (the best player in the draft), or Marcell Dareus.