Last week we were blessed with three fantastic games, including one of the biggest upsets in playoff history (Marshawn Lynch!), & one stinker (thanks a lot Charlie Weiss. No seriously, thanks, that’s the only game I predicted correctly. ). This week we have the odd phenomenon of every matchup having already happened this season with both division rivalries in the AFC having split, the Falcons having defeated the Packers 20-17 in Atlanta back in week 12, & the Seahawks going on the road to beat the Bears 23-20 in week 6. With every team being familiar with the other this becomes an even more intriguing weekend. Now on to the picks! (Home team in caps & I’m only picking today’s games because I’ve got to get to the UA/ASU showdown)
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
These two teams are renowned for playing ridiculously close games (the last three or four games have been decided by 3 points), but what is more important in picking it is knowing that the last six times Ben Roethlisberger has started against the Ravens the Steelers have come out victorious (they’re 0-3 against the Ravens in games he’s been hurt or suspended). Besides Big Ben’s (has anyone asked that chick in Georgia if that’s truly a fitting nickname? If not someone’s got to get on that) awesomeness the Steelers’ #1 ranked run defense is so good (they give up 62.8 yards a game, the next closest team gives up 90.1) that the game is going to be on Joe Flacco, & that can’t be good.
Steelers 20, Ravens 16.
Packers (+2.5) over Falcons
I picked the Packers to win it all at the beginning of the season, then last week I backed off & picked the Eagles. Well now I’m back on the bandwagon! Why would I do that when the Falcons have the better coach, an extra week of rest, & home field advantage? Because the Falcons are a disturbingly average team (they rank 16th in offense & defense) who’s gotten by on turnover margin (+14) & clutch plays. The Packers on the other hand have an elite passing offense (5th in the NFL), an emerging running game, a top-notch defense (5th), & they negate the Falcons big advantage against most teams by being +10 in turnover margin. I expect whoever wins this game will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, so time to prove pre-season me right Aaron.
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bonus Pick: Arizona 76, ASU 61
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