Sunday's Divisional Round Picks

2-0 yesterday thanks to the Ravens wide receivers & a dominating performance by the Packers, let’s see if I can keep the magic going for a perfect weekend! (Home team in caps)

Seahawks (+10) over BEARS

This matchup pits two teams that I still scarcely believe won their divisions over teams (the Packers & Rams) I’d swear were better. Maybe I don’t respect either one because my Giants manhandled both (beating them by a combined 58-10) or it could be they have the two worst offenses in the playoffs (Seattle’s 28^th & the Bears are 30^th). Regardless one of them has to move on here to lose to the Packers & despite last week’s brilliant performance & their victory in Chicago in week 6 (23-20) I like the Bears. Da Bears actually have a solid defense, especially against the run (2^nd in the NFL), & by making the Seahawks one dimensional they should force them into enough turnovers to win the game (Seattle has the worst turnover differential of any playoff team -9). However I hardly expect Jay Cutler & Lovie Smith to cover such a generous spread.

Chicago 27, Seattle 20

PATRIOTS (-9) over Jets

In week 2 the Jets beat the Patriots 28-14, in week 13 the Pats took out revenge with a 45-3 massacre. So how the hell did that happen? First the Patriots played at home where they’re unbeaten this season (& where today’s game will be played), secondly Randy Moss & his baggage were gone in favor of Brady’s old favorite Deion Branch & everyman running back/Jets castoff Danny Woodhead, & Tom Brady had returned to his peak form. However the most important difference between the two games is hardly shocking at all, the turnover differential. In the first game the Pats turned it over three times to the Jets zero, in the rematch those results were reversed. In fact, despite the Patriots 30^th ranked pass defense, turnovers have proven to be essentially the sole key in beating them. The Patriots shattered the NFL record this season for fewest turnovers with nine, but they had three in each of their losses & two in their one overtime win (in those three games their opponents had only one turnover). So if the Jets plan on winning today they’ll need to win the turnover battle by at least two. Problem is the Jets are quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez & the Patriots by Tom Brady, so that ain’t happening. As for the spread Bill & Tom are going to want to lay the beat down & I’ll take my chance with them.

Patriots 34, Jets 24