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| Will Sunday be the end for Ray Lewis? |
*Hopefully I'll be able to both redeem myself for my horrible (at least on the AFC side) preseason picks & continue my playoff prediction hot streak from last year when I correctly predicted 9 of the 11 games & beat the spread 8 of 11 times.
**Last season I would occasionally get into arguments with people over how bad John Skelton was. Those I opposed put forth he had promise & was probably better than Kolb, I said Skelton was a giant pile of crap trying to pass himself off as an NFL quarterback. I think it's safe to say I'll never have to argue that again.
***It's Luck. The stats don't back me up, but they also don't tell you how much more dependent the Colts are on Luck than the Skins or Hawks are on their rookie signal callers. As good as RG3 was Kirk Cousins finished off one game saving drive & won another game with Griffin out, Wilson has by far the best team around him, & they both have great running games to support them. Luck had Reggie Wayne &... Yea.
****My MVP ballot:
1. AP-2,097 yards on 6.0 YPC while dragging Christian Ponder into the playoffs.
2. Brady-The Patriots scored 76 points more than any other team even with their best offensive weapon, Gronkowski, out much of the year.
3. Peyton-Looked even sharper than in his last year with the Colts as he took the Broncos from overachievers to legit contenders.
Bengals (+4.5) over TEXANS
Last year these two faced off in the first round of the playoffs & even though the Texans were coming off three straight losses & starting T.J. Yates I took them as 3 point favorites & they more than paid off that faith by laying a 31-10 beat down on the hapless Bengals. So even though the Texans are once again entering the playoffs in a tailspin, having lost 3 of 4 all by double digits, there's obviously reason to believe they can handle the Bengals again, especially with Schaub in at quarterback rather than a rookie. Then again T.J. Yates now has two more playoff starts than Schaub & the Texans are a far more average running team than people realize, ranking a pedestrian 16th in yards per carry. That doesn't bode well when facing a Bengals defense that over the second half of the season has held opponents under 20 points in all but one game (that one game being their lone loss, 20-19 to Dallas). It also bears mentioning that according to Football Outsiders the Texans are dead last in special teams, being especially bad on kickoff coverage.
Of course I'm only stating one side of the argument when the Texans still have Andre Johnson & J.J. Watt & the Bengals offense is about as mediocre as it gets besides A.J. Green. If the Texans can establish the run, utilize their play action, & force Dalton into mistakes Cincinnati will still be waiting for their first road playoff win, but I think Schaub's the one who'll make the mistake as the Bengals defense dominates & as much as everyone, including the Texans defense, will be focusing on Green don't be surprised if its another Bengals receiver who finds success throughout the game.
Cincinnati 28, Houston 17
Vikings (+7.5) over PACKERS
Based on their two games this season there are some safe assumptions we can make: Adrian Peterson will demolish the Packers & Aaron Rodgers will tear up the Vikings secondary especially with Randall Cobb back from injury & the Vikings best corner, Antoine Winfield, playing in a cast. Granted we can generally assume those two things regardless of who AP & Rodgers are playing. Barring either of those two having a surprisingly off game* the result in this one will mostly fall on the least consistent players on each team, Christian Ponder** & Mason Crosby.
*Which is slightly more possible for Rodgers simply because his offensive line can't be trusted.
**It just got announced Ponder won't play, which puts Joe Webb in but honestly that doesn't affect my pick much.
The two Packers/Vikings games have essentially been a tale of two Ponders. In the first game, a 9 point Vikings loss, Ponder was a pathetic 12 of 25 for 119 yards, one touchdown & 2 picks. Before the second game however someone must have showed him how to throw a football as he completed 16 of 28 passes for 234 yards, 3 touchdowns, & zero turnovers. What doesn't bode well for him in this game is the return of Charles Woodson to the Green Bay lineup which will allow coordinator Dom Capers to bring more exotic blitzes at Ponder. How Ponder adjusts will likely decide the game.
Then again the game could also, to the dread of every Packers fan, be decided by a field goal. Crosby's made just 21 of 33 field goals on the season & seemingly been on the verge of being cut every week, but here he remains. If he misses one early it'll be interesting to see if McCarthy adjusts his game plan afraid to trust his kicker.
I expect Ponder will split the difference between his two previous games which should be enough to beat the spread, but not the Packers.
Green Bay 30, Minnesota 23
Colts (+7) over RAVENS
I could analyze this from an actual football standpoint & talk about how the Colts have been an absolutely ridiculous 10-1 in one possession games this year, barely have a run game, & a defense that's among the worst in the league if they're not forcing turnovers. Or how the Ravens, despite being very average overall, should probably win this game simply by giving the ball to Ray Rice, utilizing their league best special teams, & waiting for Ed Reed to pick of Andrew Luck. That'd be dumb though because this game is all about the different karmic forces at work.
ChuckStrong. That one phrase, & Andrew Luck, is all that can explain this Colts season. When head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with Leukemia the Colts were 1-2 & coming off a loss to the Jaguars on an 80 yard Blaine Gabbert pass (as if finding out you have Leukemia weren't depressing enough). Their next game they came back from down 21-3 to beat the Packers on their way to an improbable 10-3 finish, filled with close wins, & shaved heads.
The Ravens on the other hand have Ray Lewis, arguably the greatest middle* linebacker in history, playing in the final game(s) of his career but of more interest to me is the death of their owner, Art Modell, prior to the season. For those that don't remember the Colts used to play in Baltimore but in the middle of the night on March 29, 1984 Colts owner Robert Irsay snuck the team out of Maryland. Then in 1996 Modell, the owner, of the Browns moved them to Baltimore where they were rechristened the Ravens. So the Ravens are playing for the owner who brought football back to Baltimore against the team, & family (the Irsay's), that abandoned the city. If there's one thing that could karmically overtake ChuckStrong that's it.
*"Middle" being the operative word as Lawrence Taylor is the greatest linebacker of all time.
With that said... #ChuckStrong!
Indianapolis 27, Baltimore 24
Seahawks (-3) over REDSKINS
The two teams that redeemed my preseason picks by both making the playoffs square off, as do two of the three star rookie QBs. RG3 has taken most of the headlines, & deservedly so, but Wilson has been nearly as good. Actually... over the 2nd half of the season Wilson's been even better than Griffin. Over their last 8 starts:
Wilson: 7-1 16 TDs 2 Ints 67.2% 9.02 YPA 1,652
Griffin: 6-2 13 TDs 2 Ints 61.3% 7.84 YPA 1,599
Ah but Griffin's the better runner you say? Well let's look at those last 8 games again...
Wilson: 58 361 6.2 YPC 4 TDs
Griffin: 56 347 6.2 YPC 1 TD
Now I'd still say Griffin's had the better year overall, & is a better player, but the point is going into this game we shouldn't be viewing the Skins as having any great advantage at quarterback. Actually the Skins don't really have an advantage anywhere except one, home field advantage. As any Skins fan will tell you though that's pretty big since Seattle has been essentially* unbeatable at home but is a mere 3-5 on the road. That's a fair point but what should also be noted is that every one of the Seahawks losses has been by only one possession, meaning they've suffered from some bad luck, while during the Skins 7 game win streak they've won 4 of them by 7 points or less. In addition the Skins have recovered a ridiculous 20 of 26 fumbles on the year, so they've benefited from more than their fair share of luck. To be sure the Skins legitimately have one of the best offenses but the Seahawks simply don't have a weakness, while the Skins defense & special teams is less than trustworthy. Unless the Skins can force Wilson into a mistake, something he's rarely done over the second half of the season, I don't think they can win this game.
*As we all know the Packers did beat them, but I would also point out that Wilson's improvement has only made that 12th man advantage that much more pronounced since then.
Seattle 21, Washington 17
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