Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be disappointed again
 by Championship weekend?

We're nearing the end & my 3 year streak of predicting the AFC Champion is a game of way from being extended as the Pats made quick work of the Texans, & my preseason NFC pick, Atlanta, is also a game away from making me look like a genius for the 2nd time in 3 years.* Or at least as close to a genius as someone who picked Lovie Smith to be coach of the year can be, & who is 3-5 both overall & against the spread this playoffs.** Beyond my own selfish hopes of having my prognostication being proven correct there's plenty of other storylines for this weekend. We've got the Patriots/Ravens rematch of both last season's nail-biting championship & this year's 1 point Baltimore victory. The Falcons as the third team in five years (joining the Cardinals & Bears) to be hosting the NFC Championship & yet still be the underdog. The rise of Colin Kaepernick. The second straight year with a chance at a Harbaugh Bowl. Tom Brady potentially playing against his hometown team. Matt Ryan's potential redemption. &, most likely, the swan songs for two of the greatest players in the history of the game in Tony Gonzalez & Ray Lewis. It's a fascinating set of possibilities & I'll do my best to predict which ones will ultimately materialize.

*I nailed the Packers over Steelers back in 2010-11. Imagine if I'd wagered on that matchup before the season... Damn.

**With it being one of my friends last weekend in Tucson before moving to NYC I didn't find the time to write up my picks for the Sunday games but, as posted on my facebook, they were Seahawks 24-20 & Patriots 31-17. 

Saturday's Divisional Picks

After thinking about it for 2,821 days will Aaron
Rodgers finally get his revenge on the 49ers?

We've once again reached the best weekend of the NFL season when the 8 best teams in the league face off over two days & today I'll run through the Saturday games & hopefully recover from my horrible 1-3 record against the spread last week (thanks for saving me Seattle!) & pedestrian 2-2 overall.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.

Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can Tebow & the Broncos run past the Patriots?

It’s time for the best weekend of the NFL, the divisional round. We get to watch the 8 best teams (well, 7 & the Broncos) play in 4 games over 2 days. It should be awesome (unless the Giants lose, then all of life is pointless). Interestingly 3 of the 4 matchups are rematches from the regular season, 49ers/Saints being the lone exception. Not surprisingly the team that won the previous matchup is favored in each game, & at home, so one may well be inclined to just go with the favorites in all 3. However if you really think I’m that lazy with my picks (or smart, depending on your point of view) you don’t know me. & speaking of my picks I went 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall last week, my best week ever. Does this mean I’m finally figuring the NFL out, or that I just got really lucky? This week we’ll find out!

The NFC Playoff Picture

Can Suh & the Lions save their season?

Now to take a look at, & make some predictions about, my favorite conference... the National Football Conference!

NFC Playoff Picture

East

Dallas 7-5     Remaining Schedule: NYG, at Tampa, Philly, at NYG

Prediction: 9-7, I like Dallas to lose twice over these last 4, to the same team. Part of this is obviously because I’m a homer, & I’ll get into another, more obscure reason below. Either way expect their games against the Giants to be close (15 of their combined 24 games have been decided by 1 possession). As for Tampa, they’ve fallen apart, & against Philly I expect Dallas to be awfully motivated to avenge the 34-7 Sunday Night beat down they experienced back in week 8.