Saturday's Divisional Picks

Can Tebow & the Broncos run past the Patriots?

It’s time for the best weekend of the NFL, the divisional round. We get to watch the 8 best teams (well, 7 & the Broncos) play in 4 games over 2 days. It should be awesome (unless the Giants lose, then all of life is pointless). Interestingly 3 of the 4 matchups are rematches from the regular season, 49ers/Saints being the lone exception. Not surprisingly the team that won the previous matchup is favored in each game, & at home, so one may well be inclined to just go with the favorites in all 3. However if you really think I’m that lazy with my picks (or smart, depending on your point of view) you don’t know me. & speaking of my picks I went 3-1 against the spread & 4-0 overall last week, my best week ever. Does this mean I’m finally figuring the NFL out, or that I just got really lucky? This week we’ll find out!

49ERS (+4) over Saints

Over the last month the Saints have the best offense in the NFL scoring at least 40 points in their last 4 games, they’ve won 9 straight games, & they were my pre-season pick to win it all. So why do I have the 49ers here? One reason is the Saints aren’t quite the same offense outside. In the 12 games they’ve played in domes they’ve averaged a ridiculous 38.6 points & gone 11-1. In the 5 games out doors they’ve averaged 25.8 points & gone 3-2 (including a loss to Tampa Bay). It doesn’t help that this week they face the best defense in the NFC. Also we have this lovely piece of information courtesy of a Bill Simmons reader: All 5 times the Saints have been held under 4 yards-per-carry they’ve either lost or won by 3. It just so happens the 49ers have the best run defense in football. If the Saints win big I’ll be shocked. That being said the question becomes will the 49ers actually win? Can  an Alex Smith (who is no better than average, regardless of what SF tell you) lead team really beat a Drew Brees one? I think so. The 49ers will force the Saints into being one dimensional, & while that dimension will still be a very good it will be further limited by MLBs Navorro Bowman & Patrick Willis, 2 of the best coverage linebackers, helping limit the effectiveness of Brees favorite receivers TE Jimmy Graham & RB Darren Sproles. Plus the Saints don’t figure to have great field position often as the 49ers have the best punter in the NFL in Andy Lee. Offensively the 49ers don’t turn the ball over & the Saints don’t force them (only 5 forced in 8 road games), & the 49ers should start with good field position thanks to an elite special teams. All of that plus Jim Harbaugh & one has to wonder, who has it better than San Francisco?

San Francisco 27, New Orleans 23

Broncos (+13.5) over PATRIOTS

I was one of the few people who picked the Broncos over the Steelers last week, & I worship at the alter of Tebowism, so no one should be surprised I’m taking the Broncos when they’re spotted 13.5 points, but what about for the win? Let’s look at the first matchup these two played before I give you that info. Many have forgotten that the Broncos actually lead their game in mile high into the second quarter before 3 costly turnovers put them in a hole they never got out of. The Broncos torched New England on the ground, running for 252 yards & 3 touchdowns. If the Broncos can do that again it will be huge, as they must try & control the clock & shorten the game, & they may be able to as Bill Bilichick is unlikely to leave his weak secondary out to dry after watching last week’s Denver tape (a lot has been made of Eric Decker’s injury, & it matters, but all of Denver’s huge pass plays last week came after his injury). Even if Denver does run the ball well & avoid turnovers though can they really stop the Patriots? Last time they played Denver attempted to eliminate Gronkowski, & they did hold him to 53 yards & no TDs, but this left Aaron Hernandez running wild for 9 catches, 129 yards, & a touchdown. Denver has to get pressure on Brady to have any chance, & while they succeeded in doing that last week on Ben Roethlisberger 2 of those sacks came from Robert Ayers in a fluke performance (he had 3 sacks all season) & Brady & his offensive line are far less prone to taking sacks. Denver has a chance, but just like last time Tebow magic figures to be no match for Brady & Belichick.

New England 38, Denver 27