NFL Wild Card Picks

Can Calvin Johnson & the Lions dive past the Saints?

The NFL playoffs start today, which of course, means it’s time for my wild card round picks. Now before I get to them I’m going to offer a bit of honesty. I love to talk about how I have correctly predicted 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl teams in the pre-season & nailed the Packers over Steelers-coming within 6 points of the actual score & saying: “Rodgers asserts himself as a truly elite quarterback & Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).” However what I don’t like to mention is how terrible I am at predicting playoff games. Despite going a solid 6-5 last year my combined record over the last 3 years is an embarrassing 13-20. In fact last January was the first time I managed to avoid an 0-4 weekend. Hopefully this year will be different but, just in case, I’d like to apologize now for picking your team.

I would also like to add, before getting to my picks, that Sunday will mark the anniversary of the shooting that robbed 6 people of their lives, including 9-year-old Christina Taylor-Green, and injured Representative Gabriel Giffords and 12 others. While I stand by my original position that one of the best ways to honor the victims of that day is to cherish every moment of our lives, and if your like me that means watching football this weekend, I think it would benefit us all if we took at least some time out of our weekend to think about and pray for the victims, the shooter, and their families, as well as thank God that that day was not worse and for the blessings that are our lives and the people we love . And I think we should all strive to “[re]commit ourselves as Americans to forging a country that is forever worthy of [Christina’s] gentle, happy spirit.”

TEXANS (-3) over Bengals

Interestingly the Bengals are the last team Houston has beaten, having lost 3 consecutive games since their game in Cincinnati. In the battle of rookie QBs (this is going to be the first playoff game in NFL history with 2 rookie starting at QB) T.J. Yates actually came out looking slightly more impressive as he threw for 300 yards (granted on 44 passes), 2 TDs & a pick, while engineering the game winning drive. Also of note in that game: The Texans had 4 turnovers on the road, & they still won 20-19. With that in mind I don’t see the Bengals (who went 1-6 against winning teams) reversing the outcome in front of a jacked up Houston crowd. Houston’s the pick.

Houston 21, Cincinnati 17

Lions (+10.5) over SAINTS

These two also played a little over a month ago, in New Orleans, & Detroit (who actually outgained the Saints by 28 yards) lost 31-17 in large part due to an impressive 107 yards of penalties. Despite the Lions’ reputation that amount of penalty yardage is highly unlikely to repeat itself & to further comfort Lions’ fans they were missing their 2 best defensive players (Ndamukong Suh, & Louis Delmas) were out. This is all to say I don’t think the Lions will get blown out, but they’re not going to win because Drew Brees is just too good. Brees threw 29 TDs to only 6 picks at home this year as the Saints went 8-0, & he’s playing a defense that just had a backup QB light them up for 480 yards & 6 touchdowns-game over (also I picked NO to win the Super Bowl 4 months ago, so no way I’m jumping off that wagon just yet).

New Orleans 38, Detroit 31

GIANTS (-3) over Falcons

Before you accuse me, an unabashed G-men fan, of bias let me just tell you that I’ve correctly predicted the Giants’ record the last 2 years (Don’t trust me? Check it here & here). I’m off on a ridiculous amount of stuff (remember my playoff record?) but I know my team. That said we all know this Falcons team because, according to Football Outsiders, they’re the most consistent team of at least the last 20 years (as far back as FO’s measurements go). They lose to good teams (1-4 against teams with 10 or more wins) & beat most everyone else (9-2). Obviously the Giants only won 9 games, & the porous Giants’ secondary must face off against Matty Ice, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Harry Douglas, &, less we forget, Tony Gonzalez. Plus the Falcons rank 6^th in run defense & the Giants rank, um… dead last at running the football. This game is going to all ride on the Giants pass rush & Eli & his receivers. The thing is I expect they both come through (in the pass rush’s case just enough) & we’ll see at least one salsa dance in the end zone.

New York 27, Atlanta 23

BRONCOS (+8.5) over Steelers

First 8.5 points is too much to lay on a Pittsburgh team that has a hobbled star quarterback, just lost their starting running back, has a safety out because the last time he played in Denver he nearly died due to a sickle cell trait & Denver’s altitude, & really hasn’t been all that impressive on the road (5-3 while averaging 15.6 points). Secondly I think Denver’s going to win. I could give you more statistics as to why but really it comes down to what one of Bill Simmons’ readers wrote in this week:

Tebow that overcame all kinds of obstacles to get the starting job on a crappy team. Then he leads them to unbelievable win after win. He has the team playing hard for him and everyone is starting to love him, even those in the media who were so against him. Then just when everything is going great things start to fall apart. Key players get injured, none of his tricks work anymore, and they go on a horrible losing streak. Now, just when there is no hope and everyone has counted them out the "Nobody Believes in Us" speech is delivered by Timmy Tebow. The team rallies behind him and they pull off a miracle comeback to beat the Steelers. I'm telling you … it's the easiest pick of the weekend. If Disney's already making the Tim Tebow movie there is no way the Broncos lose.
— Jason H, Dayton, OH

I also love Simmons idea for the name of said movie, Fourth-and-God.

Denver 16, Pittsburgh 13

P.S. Also hoping this happens so Tebowism can finally break free of Christianity's shadow & become America's dominant religion.