2014 NFL Preview

Can Seattle become the first team to repeat in 10 years?

I love college football. It's fantastic, & this year there's even a playoff! With that said the highlight of my fall weekends is the Christian, not the Jewish*, Sabbath. In the NFL you actually know who all of the players are. Unless you're a Raiders fan, every season you can talk yourself into believing your team is going to make the playoffs &, after the recent playoff runs of the Giants, Cardinals, & Ravens, that means they've got a chance to win it all! Does it help that my team, the Giants, have won 2 of the last 7 Super Bowls while the Arizona Wildcats have never made a Rose Bowl? Absolutely! But that's exactly my point: The NFL is what people want to believe America is like –– a place where if you plan right & work hard you can lift yourself from the bottom to the top of society –– while college football is what America really is –– a place with a giant divide of haves & have nots where the occasional surprise success story provides the illusion of hope. That's why I prefer the NFL, even with moral questionability of the entire enterprise, so I'm super excited for another season of madness that will surely make many of my following picks look shockingly foolish.**

*If we're being totally honest Judaism has it right. Christianity sold out the Sabbath, & a bunch of other things, for converts.

**But not all of them! Unlike any of ESPN's 36 experts last season I correctly predicted the Panthers to get the 2 seed in the NFC, in addition to predicting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, the Falcons to fall off (though not that drastically), & the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Does it matter than I also had the Giants & Bucs in the playoffs? Yeah... I know it does.

Matz Bowl II, otherwise known as Super Bowl XLVI, Preview!

Manning vs. Brady in Indy-we've seen it before, but never like this.

Before I get into any analysis & the pick I’d like to take this moment to gloat, so if you don’t want to read that skip a paragraph down. For the third straight year I’ve correctly predicted (in the pre-season) one of the Super Bowl participants (New England). In addition I saw the Giants/Patriots rematch coming before anyone else. As soon as the wild card round was over I saw it lining up even as Packers fans cried about how they were being disrespected prior to their loss & 49ers players & fans were yelling about how nobody had it better than them before the revived Alex Smith fell apart on third down.¹ & realizing this helped lead me to go 9-1 predicting the winner in the playoffs (Ok so picking T.J. Yates against the Ravens proved to be ill advised). Now we’ll have to see if I can finish this year with a correct Super Bowl XLVI pick.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.

Sunday's Divisional Round Picks

The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly: which will we see from Flacco?

Woohoo! 6-0! To hell with modesty. I’ve never picked the first 6 games of the playoffs correctly before, & my perfection may well end today, so I’m going to savor this for a moment. Alright, enough of that. Besides I’m a more pedestrian 4-2 against the spread so hopefully any advice you’ve taken from my picks has been used to make bets with your friends rather than your bookie (Because I assume if you’re reading this you’re an addictive gambler, as all good football fans are). Anyway today I put my surprising streak of near omnipotence to the test, & oh what a test it will be.

NFL Wild Card Picks

Can Calvin Johnson & the Lions dive past the Saints?

The NFL playoffs start today, which of course, means it’s time for my wild card round picks. Now before I get to them I’m going to offer a bit of honesty. I love to talk about how I have correctly predicted 3 of the last 4 Super Bowl teams in the pre-season & nailed the Packers over Steelers-coming within 6 points of the actual score & saying: “Rodgers asserts himself as a truly elite quarterback & Green Bay wins the Super Bowl in Brett Favre’s last season (I think).” However what I don’t like to mention is how terrible I am at predicting playoff games. Despite going a solid 6-5 last year my combined record over the last 3 years is an embarrassing 13-20. In fact last January was the first time I managed to avoid an 0-4 weekend. Hopefully this year will be different but, just in case, I’d like to apologize now for picking your team.

I would also like to add, before getting to my picks, that Sunday will mark the anniversary of the shooting that robbed 6 people of their lives, including 9-year-old Christina Taylor-Green, and injured Representative Gabriel Giffords and 12 others. While I stand by my original position that one of the best ways to honor the victims of that day is to cherish every moment of our lives, and if your like me that means watching football this weekend, I think it would benefit us all if we took at least some time out of our weekend to think about and pray for the victims, the shooter, and their families, as well as thank God that that day was not worse and for the blessings that are our lives and the people we love . And I think we should all strive to “[re]commit ourselves as Americans to forging a country that is forever worthy of [Christina’s] gentle, happy spirit.”

The NFC Playoff Picture

Can Suh & the Lions save their season?

Now to take a look at, & make some predictions about, my favorite conference... the National Football Conference!

NFC Playoff Picture

East

Dallas 7-5     Remaining Schedule: NYG, at Tampa, Philly, at NYG

Prediction: 9-7, I like Dallas to lose twice over these last 4, to the same team. Part of this is obviously because I’m a homer, & I’ll get into another, more obscure reason below. Either way expect their games against the Giants to be close (15 of their combined 24 games have been decided by 1 possession). As for Tampa, they’ve fallen apart, & against Philly I expect Dallas to be awfully motivated to avenge the 34-7 Sunday Night beat down they experienced back in week 8.