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| Manning vs. Brady in Indy-we've seen it before, but never like this. |
Before I get into any analysis & the pick I’d like to take this moment to gloat, so if you don’t want to read that skip a paragraph down. For the third straight year I’ve correctly predicted (in the pre-season) one of the Super Bowl participants (New England). In addition I saw the Giants/Patriots rematch coming before anyone else. As soon as the wild card round was over I saw it lining up even as Packers fans cried about how they were being disrespected prior to their loss & 49ers players & fans were yelling about how nobody had it better than them before the revived Alex Smith fell apart on third down.1 & realizing this helped lead me to go 9-1 predicting the winner in the playoffs (Ok so picking T.J. Yates against the Ravens proved to be ill advised). Now we’ll have to see if I can finish this year with a correct Super Bowl XLVI pick.
1This is not to belittle the seasons those teams had. The Packers were amazing this year (well, their offense was) & every cheese head out there should celebrate Aaron Rodgers well-deserved MVP award. San Francisco exceeded the expectations of everyone outside their locker room. Harbaugh did a fantastic job, Alex Smith was solid (though by the end 49ers fans were overrating him), & that defense was nothing short of fantastic.
This is a weird Super Bowl. Certainly there have been other odd ones over the last few years (the Cardinals made it after all), but I think this one takes the cake. This is a Giants team that was one Tony Romo completion away from being all but eliminated all the way back in week 14. If they win they’ll be the first 9-7 team, the first team to lose four consecutive games, the first team to give up 400 points, & the first team to be outscored by their opponents to win the Super Bowl. The mediocrity those stats entail make it seem ridiculous that they should be in this game & that many people are picking them (though not in the landslide some have been implying), but this is not the same team that lost four straight games. They’re healthier, & seemingly more motivated, & it shows. Over their current 5 game winning streak the Giants have played defense on par with what the Ravens & 49ers did all season, & their offense has continued to play at an elite level. In fact according to Football Outsiders rating system (which takes into account the level of competition) if the Giants had played at that level the whole season they would have been the best team in football.
Enough of this Giants’ talk though, it’s time we looked at New England-you know the team with the 3 time Super Bowl winning coach & QB. Despite their pedigree & their 13-3 record this year this Patriots team has also beaten the odds in many ways to get here (& I’m not just talking about that Ravens game). They’re the second worst pass defense in the history of the NFL (this year’s Packers are the worst), & they’ve given up more yards (411 a game) than any Super Bowl team in history. This is no juggernaut. That said remember all of that stuff I just said about how the Giants, over their 5 game win streak, have played at a level better than anyone over the regular season? Well in the Patriots last 5 games they’ve been even better. Their offense & special teams have been on a whole nother level & even their defense has been pretty solid minus their regular season win over the Broncos. So while based on the entirety of the season these may seem like unlikely opponents make no mistake, these two teams are, like their quarterbacks, elite.
There’s been a lot of talk about how this is a revenge game for the Patriots & the parallels between this Giants team & the one in 07. Both of these are ridiculous. Do you really think that Brady & Belichick would be any less motivated had they won back in 07? Of course not, these are hyper-competitive guys who want to win every game regardless of the past. & these Giants are nothing like the 07 Giants. That was a team with a fantastic running game, average receiving corps, shaky to solid QB, & a defense that played well all year. This is a team that finished last in rushing yards, has arguably the best receivers in the league, a top 5 QB, & a defense that’s only come on in the last 5 games. Throw out those storylines, they’re just filler distracting from the real questions that will decide this game.
Everyone keeps talking about how the Giants need to get after Brady, & they certainly do, but it’s equally important for the Patriots get some on Eli because when you have a receiver in coverage you’d best not give the QB too much time. The twist is both teams need to get pressure without blitzing as both Brady & Eli shred the opposition when blitzed. The key for the Giants will be forcing long third downs so that they can get in their NASCAR package with three defensive ends rushing the quarterback, if that happens I don’t expect the Patriots to be able to handle them. The Patriots I expect will try & take away big plays in the passing game (something the Giants are adept at & the Patriots have been less than stellar in preventing) by playing their safeties deep. This may allow the Giants to dink & dunk their way down field but the Patriots red zone defense has stiffened rather significantly all year & the Giants sometimes struggle when they get in close in large part because they’re a poor short yardage running team.
This leads to what I think many are overlooking in this matchup between two elite quarterbacks, & mediocre to bad passing defenses, the run game. Both defenses are going to be focused on stopping the other team’s passing attack & this can leave them vulnerable to the run. If the Patriots run effectively, as they have (especially out of their no-huddle shotgun offense), they can keep the Giants defense off balance & counter their ferocious pass rush. If the Giants are able to get consistent yardage on the ground they can force the Patriots safeties to move towards the line of scrimmage & then burn them for a big play. Amid all of the talk of passing, passing, & passing this season & in the lead up to this game I expect the team that finds the most success running the ball to prove victorious.
More than likely if you’re reading this you’re already aware of this but I’m going to say it nonetheless: my brother (born in Worcester, Massachusetts) is a diehard Pats fan while I (having been brainwashed by a 1991 Sports Illustrated year in sports video) live for the Giants. Normally this doesn’t cause much conflict as they only play each other once every four years (in the regular season) but obviously things are a little different in the Super Bowl. Four years ago we were treated to an amazing Super Bowl, fatefully played in Arizona, between our two teams. The night started with the rest of our family refusing to pick sides (except my Grandma who despises Bill Belichick), but by the end everyone had come over to the good guys.2 A telling moment came early in the fourth quarter, with the Giants leading 10-7, when I asked my brother if he was nervous. He said no. That was the problem with that Patriots team. They were arrogant. The Giants were hungry & they were arrogant.
2I honestly don’t know how any non-Patriots fan wouldn’t see the Giants as the side of Jesus, unicorns, & ice cream & the Patriots as the one of Lucifer, cats, & Brussels sprouts. Did you really want to see the Spygate assholes go 19-0?
That isn’t the case this time. Over the last two weeks my brother has been relatively quiet about the game, but I can sense an inner confidence & I think the Patriots feel the same. So no, this Patriots team isn’t as good as the one in 07 (one of the greatest teams ever, regardless of their finish), & these Giants are better than they were 4 years ago, but the mindset is different. This time it’s the Patriots whose last loss came at the hand of the Giants, a loss that ended a 20 game home winning streak. This time Belichick, Brady, & the Pats aren’t arrogant. No, they’re simply determined to be back on top & to do it not only for themselves but also for their owner & his deeply missed wife Myra. So as much as I believe in Eli, Tom, & the Giants, & want them to win, this year the pick is New England.
New England 24, New York 23
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady (I know I talked up the run game, but Brady’s always the MVP of this team),
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