NFL Wild Card Picks-Saturday

Can Brees & Payton figure out how to win the
 first road playoff game in Saints history?

You may have noticed, or not since only 5 or 6 people ever read this blog, that Joe's Junk has been on hiatus for 6 months. I wish I had some brilliant excuse for this like, I've been working to fight hunger in Haiti, or, I've been in a coma after diving in front of a car to save a small child (don't worry the kid was fine), but alas those things did not happen. No, the truth is simply that I'm pretty lazy & so the whole blog thing got pushed aside. But now I'm back for the 2014 NFL Playoffs! Wooh!

Now for the first time in 4 years (3 on the blog & 1 on facebook) I failed to type out an NFL preview but I did find the time to post my preseason playoff picks on facebook back in September:

AFC: 1. Denver 2. New England 3. Cincinnati 4. Houston 5. Pittsburgh 6. Kansas City 
NFC: 1. Seattle 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. New York 5. San Francisco 6. Tampa Bay 
AFC Championship: NE over DEN 
NFC Championship: SEA over GB 
Super Bowl: Seattle 27, New England 24

How'd I do? Well for comparisons sake here's a quick breakdown of how this season compared to my past predictions of the regular season:

2009: Playoff Teams-9/12  Division Winners-5/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2010: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-2/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2011: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-4/8  Bye Teams-1/4 

2012: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-3/8  Bye Teams-2/4

2013: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-6/8  Bye Teams-4/4* 

*Interesting tidbit--The AFC vs. NFC divide on playoff teams I've correctly predicted is minimal, I've nailed one more NFC pick, but the contrast in division winners is significant. I've hit on 60% of AFC division winners but only 40% of NFC winners. Tom Brady & Peyton Manning sure have made things easier to figure out over there. 

As you can see I'm certainly no seer, particularly the previous two seasons which were particularly brutal, but 2013 was a nice comeback. In fact, despite my horrid Houston, Tampa, & New York picks, I've bested the majority of experts. Shoot I'd say it was my best year considering I got all four of the bye teams not only correct but in the correct order of finish. I mean who else was telling you Carolina was not only going to win their division but earn a first round bye? Seriously go look at all 36 of ESPN's NFL writers' predictions, not one of them has Carolina even making the playoffs. What about Sports Illustrated's seven experts? Not a single one. Only Football Outsider's projections (which I pay close attention to) had them pegged for a playoff spot, but even then it was as the four seed. So I'm the only person, that I know of, who correctly predicted all four teams on a bye this week. That's not all though. The Carolina pick helped me exceed all 44 of the previous mentioned predictors in choosing division champs & only David Fleming of ESPN was able to correctly predict more total playoff teams than I did. He's the only guy out of all those experts who can claim to have out predicted me. 

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be all smiles at the end of the day?

This year’s championship games are more ripe with potential Super Bowl storylines than any in recent memories. Let’s break them down potential matchup by potential matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers: Tom Brady faces off against the team he grew up watching, a team then quarterbacked by Joe Montana-the only QB of the last 30 years any unbiased fan can claim is better than Brady.¹ Brady also has the chance to win in his greatest rivals home stadium, the final crushing blow for Peyton & the Colts this year. Plus we get a classic offense versus defense matchup & a chance for the 49ers to prove no one really does have it better than them.

¹Career regular season QB ratings & winning percentages, playoff QB ratings & records, & Super Bowl titles of the top 10 QBs of the last 30 years (minimum 100 career starts):

Aikman-81.6; .570; 88.3; 11-4; 3 Super Bowls

Brady-96.4; .780; 89.1; 15-5; 3 Super Bowls

Brees-94.0; .601; 104.2; 5-4; 1 Super Bowl

Elway-79.9; .643; 79.7; 14-7; 2 Super Bowls (In fairness Elway was also a great runner)

Favre-86.0; .624; 86.3; 13-11; 1 Super Bowl

Manning-94.9; .678; 88.4; 9-10; 1 Super Bowl

Marino-86.4; .613; 77.1; 8-10; 0 Super Bowls

Montana-92.3; .713; 95.6; 16-7; 4 Super Bowls

Warner-93.7; .578; 102.8; 9-4; 1 Super Bowl

Young-96.8; .657; 85.8; 8-6; 1 Super Bowl

To recap Brady & Montana are the only ones to win at least 70% of their games or win 15 playoff games; & their QB ratings stack up with anyone (especially when we take into account Brees, Manning, & Warner played primarily in domes). Sorry Peyton fans.

Patriots vs. Giants: The rematch of Super Bowl XLII gives the Patriots a chance at revenge against the team that ruined their undefeated season (& their 20 game home win streak earlier this season), while Eli gets a chance to double Peyton’s Super Bowl victories & do it in his brother’s home stadium. Also bragging rights between my brother & I would be up for grabs.