Why Trump's Reelection Odds are Lower than You Think

Will Trump still reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in 4 months? I have my doubts. Evan Vucci / Associated Press

On Tuesday, which marked six weeks till this year's federal elections, I asked on Facebook what people thought Trump's chances of reelection were. The feedback was not overwhelming (Only four people answered, including a text exchange) but the most common response was that Trump is a moderate underdog with the Supreme Court opening & the potential for poor debate performances by Biden leaving the door open for this to turn into a toss-up. The one dissenting opinion had Trump as a solid favorite, citing incumbent advantage (four of the last five have won), a strong pre-COVID economy, & lack of excitement around Biden. 

All of the answers had some solid reasoning behind them, but I wasn't surprised to find that they all gave Trump better odds than I do (I'd put him at around 25%). At the risk of being proven a fool in six weeks, here are my thoughts on why it's unlikely:*

*A quick note: References to current polling/odds are often linked to FiveThirtyEight, or The Economist, whose polling & election models are constantly updating, thus numbers may have changed slightly since I posted this. 

2020 NFL Preview

 A couple of months ago I wasn't sure we'd have an NFL season, a month ago I doubted we'd finish the season, but thus far the NFL's robust testing program has kept things running smoothly &, after some early stumbles, MLB also seems to be going well so *fingers crossed, knock on wood, say the Rosary, etc.* we might actually get a full season of the NFL! With that in mind here are my annual - & seemingly always late - predictions which will hopefully have the accuracy of Drew Brees on the football field & not Drew Brees reading the room. 

Four of these guys will be in the playoffs, you can probably guess which four. ESPN

A Look at Ten Recent Streaming Movies

 (Clockwise from top) The Old Guard, Bad Education, Eurovision, & Greyhound. Netflix; HBO; Netflix; Apple

With movie theaters continuing to be closed there's never been a time where streaming has been more dominant as the way we consume movies, especially new ones. With that in mind I've watched ten movies that debuted on streaming platforms over the last three months, one by an Oscar winning director, others by first timers, some starring bonafide movie stars, others relative unknowns, to help guide you on which ones you might want to check out. There is one glaring omission, Hulu's by all accounts fantastic Palm Springs, which I haven't seen yet, but there's still plenty of others to recommend. Without further ado...

24 Shows You Can Watch in 24 Hours

Undone, The People v. O.J. Simpson, & The Terror. Amazon Studios; FX; AMC

There are so many good shows to stream these days that it's impossible to watch them all, especially when some of them run for dozens, or even hundreds, of episodes. This is all the more true if you're someone who enjoys the comfort of rewatching old favorites. Thus shorter running shows can be a godsend, allowing you to experience a great story in a limited amount of time. With that in mind here are twenty-four* shows that run for less than twelve hours each, meaning you can knock them out in one day if you're motivated or over a few days more casually.

*Two of the shows are anthology series, but I'm only counting their first seasons which are entirely unrelated from their second. 

For each show I've included a description of the plot, shows/movies that are similar in tone, visuals, and/or subject matter, as well as who's in it. You can also click on a show's title to see a trailer for its first season. 

There are six shows each from the main streamers (Netflix, Hulu, & Amazon), three from HBO, & one each from Apple TV+, CBS All Access, & Disney+, to ensure you'll have something to check out no matter what services you have. 

The Matz Brothers Present: The 10 Best Basic Cable Shows of the 2010s

This is the second installment of my brother Sam's & my best TV shows of the decade (You can read the first, which covers network shows, here). This time we're looking at the ten best shows that aired on basic cable, those shows that still had to deal with the burden of commercials but could get away with a little more adult content than their network (NBC, CBS, etc.) brethren.

A brief reminder on how we compiled the lists:

• There will be four top 10 lists (network, basic cable, premium cable, streaming) and then a final, top 50, list that combines the previous four, plus ten shows that didn't quite make the first four. If you want to know more about why we chose to break it down this way read the first installment. 
• Any show that aired in the 2010s is eligible, regardless of when it started, but only seasons that occurred during the decade are considered -- for example The Office could've make the network TV list, but its first five seasons didn't count so it didn't come close. 
• To create the lists Sam & I individually compiled our own top 20 for each category & then combined them, with a first place selection worth 20 points, second worth 19, & so forth. The scores of our top 10 are listed to give you an idea of which shows elevated themselves above the pack & which ones we might order differently on any given day. In the event of a tie I ultimately broke it, though not always in favor of my bracket. 
• We also list each show's best character, season, & episode, as well as where you can stream it, because we're thorough like that. While we discussed these, the person who wrote about a show made the final call on these categories. 

And don't worry, we avoided any major spoilers because if you haven't seen any of these shows we'd love for you to watch them.

The Matz Brothers Present: The 10 Best Network Shows of the 2010s

It's been a little over a month since the 2010's ended which has given myself and my brother, Sam, time to catch up on a few things & organize our thoughts on the best TV & film of the last decade. 

To fully explore the breadth of what the decade had to offer though we didn't merely want to throw together one long list of things we liked (Though there will be two long lists!) because our tastes might sway the whole thing too far in one direction or another. For example we might end up with a list of movies filled with dramedies & only a few action or horror films, which would be a shame because there were some amazing genre films last decade. So we've decided to break down television & film into distinct categories to create a list of top 10s before combining those into our definitive top 50 (And yes, we counted shows that started before 2010 -- though only their seasons that aired in the decade -- because, with all due respect to Sam Esmail, it's fucking dumb not to. The alternative is Breaking Bad & Parks & Rec never making/being near the top of a decade list & that's just dumb). First up we've got the best of network television, if you want to know more about our process -- like why that's a category -- read the next two paragraphs, if not you can skip down to the list. 

With film we divided primarily along genre lines: action, comedy, drama, etc., but we decided to try something different with TV. Rather than do the simple drama/comedy divide that most awards bodies do we opted to break them down by where the shows aired, in that way recognizing the different restrictions they work under & the different ways we consume them. So our four categories are Network (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, & the CW) which all deal with commercials & content restrictions, Basic Cable (AMC, FX, etc.) which has commercials but fewer restrictions, Premium Cable, (HBO, Showtime, etc.) which has neither commercials or content restrictions, & Streaming (Amazon, Netflix, Hulu) which takes lack of restrictions even further with varying run times & the ability to immediately binge all the episodes (save Hulu, which stuck to the weekly model). We think this makes sense because while Parks and Recreation and VEEP are both hilarious comedies half of the dialogue of the latter would be bleeped out if it aired on NBC, which is why we want to initially judge programs against those playing by the same rules before throwing them all into one top-50 batch.

Now that top-50 will include all forty shows that make up the various top 10 lists, plus 10 that narrowly missed out. And we came to our top 10 lists by individually compiling a top 20 for each category & then combining them with a first place worth 20 points, second worth 19, & so forth. I'll be posting those scores to give you an idea of which shows elevated themselves above the pack & which ones we might order differently on any given day. In addition we'll also be giving you each show's best character, season, & episode, because we're thorough like that. Alright, let's get to it.

Oh, & don't worry, we avoided any major spoilers because if you haven't seen any of these shows we'd love for you to watch them. To quote a tiger I know, they're great!

2019 NFC Preview, with Awards & Super Bowl Pick

Yesterday I covered the AFC so today I'm going over my predictions for the superior conference, awards, & the Super Bowl. Let's get to it. 

Is Doug Pederson the best coach in the NFC? (Jeff Fusco) 

NFC Preview

NFC East
1. Eagles         13-3 (1)
2. Cowboys      8-8
3. Giants          6-10
4. Washington 4-12

Last year Philadelphia lost more games due to injury, including five by Wentz, than any other team in the NFL. They made the playoffs & if not for a single Alshon Jeffery drop they could've made the NFC Championship. With Foles in Jacksonville their margin for error is smaller, however if Wentz stays healthy there may not me a more loaded team. With the return of DeSean Jackson no team can switch more effectively between 11 & 12 personnel (three wide receivers to two tight tends), first round pick Andre Dillard gives them key depth at offensive tackle, & their defensive line rotation remains the envy of the league. Corner is the only position that isn't an obvious strength, yet when compared to the injury decimated unit that finished out last year it'll be hard to complain about. Throw in head coach Doug Pederson & defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz as the best coaching combo outside New England & the Eagles are the team to fear in the NFC. 

2019 AFC Preview

The NFL is back for it's 100th season, finally giving me the chance to redeem myself after last year's Falcons over Chargers Super Bowl prediction. This year I've split the preview into AFC & NFC sections, the latter of which will run Sunday & include awards & the Super Bowl, because otherwise this would be way too long. Now let's get to it before Antonio Brown switches teams again.

One hundred years of CTE! (Bill Feig / Associated Press)

 AFC Preview

AFC East

1. Patriots   13-3 (1)

2. Jets           8-8

3. Bills           5-11

4. Dolphins   3-13

A month ago New England's biggest weakness appeared to be a less than stellar receiving corps, now they have Josh Gordon &, somehow, Antonio Brown. There may be no guarantees either is still playing in January, but if anyone can keep them on the field & productive it's the Brady/Belichick duo. They've also got a strong line, good stable of running backs, a steal from the draft in end Chase Winovich, & a defense built around the best cover corner in football, Stephon Gilmore. The only question in the regular season is if they'll be the one or two seed in the AFC.

These guys on the same team? That seems unfair. (USA Today)

2018 NFL Preview

Football is back! As is my annual, slightly late preview. Let's not waste any more time & just get to it.

AFC

AFC East

1. Patriots   12-4 (1)

2. Jets          6-10

3. Dolphins 5-11

4. Bills        3-13

There are definitely questions about the talent level on this Patriots team (Chris Hogan is there #1 receiver for the first four weeks!), but they still have the best coach & QB, & the easiest schedule -- that's good enough for a 1 seed. Sam Darnold gives the Jets some liveliness on offense that they haven't had since... Chad Pennington? Couple that with Jamal Adams & Trumaine Johnson giving Todd Bowles the type of DBs to fully run his blitz heavy scheme & the Jets aren't a team to be overlooked. I like Adam Gase but there just isn't much to love about this Miami team. They jettisoned a lot of their elite talent & they're not exactly the deepest team either, it's gonna be a long season. Then again, nothing will be as brutal as this Bills season. Tyrod Taylor carried them to the playoffs for the first time this century last, . so naturally they ditched him for pick machine Nathan Peterman & Josh Allen, the least accurate QB in this draft class. I'm sure that'll work out. 

"Black Panther" Was Headed for Best Picture History but the New Popular Film Category Could Stop It

Ryan Coogler's Black Panther was primed for a Best Picture nomination.

Black Panther was going to be nominated for Best Picture. Ryan Coogler’s film was going to be the first superhero movie to be nominated for the film industry’s highest award, a lesser writer might even have proclaimed it the Jackie Robinson of superhero films. Then the Academy announced this year would feature a new award to honor the best popular film, & this breakthrough has been thrown into doubt.

2017 NFL Preview

As per tradition I'm posting my NFL preview during opening Sunday, so I won't waste your time with some expanded prelude discussing the greatness of the NFL, or its shittiness, or my past success with predictions (Half of the Super Bowl teams the last 8 years, & 3 of the winners). Let's get to it...

Will Tom Brady be celebrating again this season?

AFC

East

1. Patriots (1) 13-3
2. Dolphins      7-9
3. Bills            4-12
4. Jets              2-14

The Patriots may have lost their opening game, but their balance across all three facets of the game, plus their coach & QB, remain the envy of the league. That, & this terrible division, should allow them to grab home field advantage. Tannehill to Cutler doesn't make any difference in my feelings about the Dolphins, they simply aren't going to go 8-2 in one score games again. They were a mediocre team that got lucky last year, they'll just be mediocre this year. Ah, the Bills. A few months ago I might've taken them as a wildcard, now they've traded away half of their good players. Tyrod & LeSean will keep them competitive in a number games, but only for so long. The Jets are going to be so so so bad, two wins might be optimistic. 

Baby Driver: You Don't Want to Miss this Ride

We're now midway through the summer movie season &, with all due respect to the original Princess Diana, Baby Driver has sped past the competition to stake its claim as the best film thus far.

The poster is pretty kick-ass too.

Edgar Wright is one of those directors that film critics & aficionados hold in high esteem, but that the American public hasn't fully caught onto. Of his four previous films released in the U.S. none scored lower than 81% on Rotten Tomatoes or 69 on Metacritic, yet none of them made more than $32 million or finished in the top 90 in yearly domestic box office. Whether it's because of the overt Britishness (& R ratings) of his Cornetto Trilogy, or the consistent lack of star power* in his films, Wright's been unable to break through with mass audiences the way he has in the industry. Ant-Man was meant to provide that opportunity, but creative differences led to his leaving that film. Perhaps that was for the best, Baby Driver is more distinctively Wright than any Marvel film could ever be, & if things go well it will have exceeded the domestic box office office of any of his previous works by the end of the weekend. 

*With Brie Larson, Chris Evans, Anna Kendrick, Aubrey Plaza, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, & others, "Scott Pilgrim" has a lot of retroactive star power but at the time only Evans might've been a bigger draw than Michael Cera, crazy as that sounds.

And, by God, it should. Ansel Elgort, Lily James, Jamie Foxx, & Kevin Spacey, have all had major roles in $100 million hits, with the latter two having three Oscars to their names, & between his Emmy win & overwhelming handsomeness Jon Hamm's no slouch either. It's easily Wright's most high profile cast. Sony has ensured the film has had plenty of publicity & it's received the best reviews of Wright's career. More to the point, it's a ton of fun.