NFL Wild Card Picks-Saturday

Can Brees & Payton figure out how to win the
 first road playoff game in Saints history?

You may have noticed, or not since only 5 or 6 people ever read this blog, that Joe's Junk has been on hiatus for 6 months. I wish I had some brilliant excuse for this like, I've been working to fight hunger in Haiti, or, I've been in a coma after diving in front of a car to save a small child (don't worry the kid was fine), but alas those things did not happen. No, the truth is simply that I'm pretty lazy & so the whole blog thing got pushed aside. But now I'm back for the 2014 NFL Playoffs! Wooh!

Now for the first time in 4 years (3 on the blog & 1 on facebook) I failed to type out an NFL preview but I did find the time to post my preseason playoff picks on facebook back in September:

AFC: 1. Denver 2. New England 3. Cincinnati 4. Houston 5. Pittsburgh 6. Kansas City 
NFC: 1. Seattle 2. Carolina 3. Green Bay 4. New York 5. San Francisco 6. Tampa Bay 
AFC Championship: NE over DEN 
NFC Championship: SEA over GB 
Super Bowl: Seattle 27, New England 24

How'd I do? Well for comparisons sake here's a quick breakdown of how this season compared to my past predictions of the regular season:

2009: Playoff Teams-9/12  Division Winners-5/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2010: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-2/8  Bye Teams-0/4

2011: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-4/8  Bye Teams-1/4 

2012: Playoff Teams-6/12  Division Winners-3/8  Bye Teams-2/4

2013: Playoff Teams-8/12  Division Winners-6/8  Bye Teams-4/4* 

*Interesting tidbit--The AFC vs. NFC divide on playoff teams I've correctly predicted is minimal, I've nailed one more NFC pick, but the contrast in division winners is significant. I've hit on 60% of AFC division winners but only 40% of NFC winners. Tom Brady & Peyton Manning sure have made things easier to figure out over there. 

As you can see I'm certainly no seer, particularly the previous two seasons which were particularly brutal, but 2013 was a nice comeback. In fact, despite my horrid Houston, Tampa, & New York picks, I've bested the majority of experts. Shoot I'd say it was my best year considering I got all four of the bye teams not only correct but in the correct order of finish. I mean who else was telling you Carolina was not only going to win their division but earn a first round bye? Seriously go look at all 36 of ESPN's NFL writers' predictions, not one of them has Carolina even making the playoffs. What about Sports Illustrated's seven experts? Not a single one. Only Football Outsider's projections (which I pay close attention to) had them pegged for a playoff spot, but even then it was as the four seed. So I'm the only person, that I know of, who correctly predicted all four teams on a bye this week. That's not all though. The Carolina pick helped me exceed all 44 of the previous mentioned predictors in choosing division champs & only David Fleming of ESPN was able to correctly predict more total playoff teams than I did. He's the only guy out of all those experts who can claim to have out predicted me. 

My Dream Emmy Ballot: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Don't look so sad Luke, you'd get my Emmy vote.

The Emmy nominations are once again around the corner (they'll be announced July 18) so I will present my thoughts on who should be nominated seeing as Emmy voters & I so often disagree. In fact last year we agreed on only 21 of 61 nominations, because of a tie there wan an extra Emmy nominee, last year & that gap was especially large in comedy where we found common ground on only 6 of 31. Maybe this year there will be more of an overlap but I'm not getting my hopes up. 

Before i get to my thoughts on our first category, Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy, it bears mentioning yet again that Emmy voters are people who work, or worked, in the industry (actors, directors, writers, etc.) hence many of them don't have the time to watch a broad variety of shows. I, on the other hand, have plenty of time! So much time that I managed to watch 42 shows last year & I added another 6 in 2013 (seriously). Thus their choices may get tons of publicity I'd argue mine may well be more valid. Of course really I think TV critics should be in charge, since it's their job to judge television, so here's a professional's opinion.*

*I freely admit that I'm ripping off Alan Sepinwall's Emmy gimmick. As for any similarities between our picks I would merely say we both watch a lot of TV & have good taste.

It's important to also not that like actual Emmy voters I'm restricted by whether or not an actor submitted themselves & where they chose to do so, so while I may think someone's a lead character if they submit in supporting I'm bound to honor that (I'm also not nominating anyone from shows I didn't watch at least a few episodes of, sorry The Big Bang Theory*). Click here for the actual Emmy ballot. Last year Emmy voters & I didn't agree on one nominee, come July 18th I encourage you to come back here & decide who did a better job.

*I'm not sorry. 

My Dream Emmy Ballot: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

I think Jenna Fischer is Emmy worthy,
let's hope the real voters feel the same.

The Emmy nominations are once again around the corner (they'll be announced July 18) so I will once again present my thoughts on who should be nominated seeing as Emmy voters & I so often disagree. In fact last year we agreed on only 21 of 61 nominations, because of a tie there wan an extra Emmy nominee, last year & that gap was especially large in comedy where we found common ground on only 6 of 31. Maybe this year there will be more of an overlap but I'm not getting my hopes up. 

Before i get to my thoughts on our first category, Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy, it bears mentioning once again that Emmy voters are people who work, or worked, in the industry (actors, directors, writers, etc.) hence many of them don't have the time to watch a broad variety of shows. I, on the other hand, have plenty of time! So much time that I managed to watch 42 shows last year & I added another 6 in 2013 (seriously). Thus their choices may get tons of publicity I'd argue mine may well be more valid. Of course really I think TV critics should be in charge, since it's their job to judge television, so here's a professional's opinion.*

I freely admit that I'm ripping off Alan Sepinwall's Emmy gimmick. As for any similarities between our picks I would merely say we both watch a lot of TV & have good taste.

It's important to also not that like actual Emmy voters I'm restricted by whether or not an actor submitted themselves & where they chose to do so, so while I may think someone's a lead character if they submit in supporting I'm bound to honor that (I'm also not nominating anyone from shows I didn't watch at least a few episodes of, sorry Downton Abbey). Click here for the actual Emmy ballot. Last year Emmy voters & I didn't agree on one nominee, come July 18th I encourage you to come back here & decide who did a better job.

'Community' Watch: "Heroic Origins"

Abed's done some unassigned history homework.

It's been quite some time since I've done a recap of Community be it because of school, coaching, laziness, or a combination of all 3 but I'm tired of working on my political science essay & thought "Heroic Origins" was one of the more interesting episodes of the show this season so I'm hopping back in the saddle to review the penultimate episode of Community's fourth, & hopefully* not final, season.

*Against all odd "Community" has a roughly 50% chance at renewal, which is honestly more than anyone could've hoped for. Of course some would argue it's better off being cancelled & doing so would allow budding stars Donald Glover & Alison Brie to star in their own sitcoms or make more online videos with their douchebag boyfriend (I kid, I actually quite like Dave Franco), but is that worth Danny Pudi & Yvette Nicole Brown being cast off into stereotypical minority roles? I think not. 

The Second Annual Super Way Late 10 Best Shows of Last Year (2012)

Walt, Jesse, & co. continue to cook up the best TV has to offer.

Once again I've managed to finally finish my top 10 shows of the previous year in April. I know, you're impressed, anyway here it is...

There's a prevalent myth in our society that watching television is bad. That it melts the brain. That it's really just a waste of time when you could be working, exercising, sleeping, or reading a book instead. When someone mentions they don't watch much television, or don't even own one, they usually say so with pride. It should come as no surprise I think these people are idiots. Now that's not to say parents should let their kids watch TV for 8 hours a day, that television can't be mind numbingly stupid (see: 96% of reality TV), or a complete waste of time (see: 92% of CBS programming), but that, if one looks in the right places, the medium of television is now providing more emotionally resonant, intelligent, & original stories that its cinema counterpart & much of modern literature. It is for that reason that I proudly say for the 21st consecutive year of my life I watched more television than the year prior &, as always, I'm thankful for that. Now here are the best* programs I watched over the last calendar year.

*"Best" is, of course, a largely subjective word when talking about entertainment. Certainly if one were to claim that "Two and a Half Men" were the best comedy of 2012 we could label that person an idiot but, there are dozens of shows that one could make a legitimate claim. Furthermore for as much TV as a watch I'm still a student who must occasionally study & go to class & not a television critic so there are plenty of shows I missed this year. Some of those shows (e.g. "Luck" & "Treme") I wish I'd at least watched a few episodes of because they might've made this list, others may be shows you love ("30 Rock," "The Walking Dead," "Dexter," "Sons of Anarchy," "Spartacus") that I'm sure I'd have enjoyed but didn't have the time or feel the need to watch, & others ("The Big Bang Theory" & almost everything else on CBS) I just don't want to watch but good for you for enjoying them (Actually that's not good at all. Why weren't you watching "Community" or "Parks and Rec" instead? You suck). My point here is this isn't a definitive top 10, heck I'll probably disagree with some of the shows I chose or at least the order I put them in minutes after I post this, merely my thoughts at the moment & a recommendation for shows you might enjoy if you haven't yet checked them out. 

'Community' Watch: "Conventions of Space and Time"

Troy & Abed together forever! 

When NBC sent out two episodes for TV critics to review for the 4th season this was the episode they sent along with the premiere, perhaps thinking it better than people reading about the 2nd episode being Halloween themed in February,* & of the 3 reviews I read two found the premiere solid but this episode lacking & the other felt the exact opposite. So while the chance to see an episode at an Inspector Spacetime convention, the storyline Dan Harmon said he most wished he'd been able to tell, excited me  my expectations were tempered &, much like the premiere, that led to my enjoying it quite a bit despite some clear shortcomings.

*As someone who knows a number of fellow "Community" nerds & frequents Hitfix & The AV Club's reviews, & reads the well informed comments on those sites as well, I generally expect most "Community" watchers to have a good deal of knowledge both about the show itself & the behind the scenes stuff involving Dan Harmon & the various delays the last 2 seasons. Based on the comments on "Community's" facebook page though I'm apparently quite wrong as a fair number of people were ignorant as to why there was a Halloween episode on Valentine's Day, & even more annoyingly didn't seem to realize Abed's imagined laugh track version of the show in the premiere was part of that episode & nothing more. It seems for all of its fervent, intelligent, fans even "Community" has some ignorant & downright stupid ones just as "The Big Bang Theory" has some smart ones. 

'Community' Watch: "Paranormal Parentage"

Which one of these should I dress up as next year? 

Sitcoms tend to excel at Halloween episodes. From funny costumes, to trick-or-treat, to haunted houses & other horror tropes there's a lot of potential fun to be had with a Halloween episodes but over its first 3 seasons Community clearly established itself as the king of Halloween episodes. The first season's "Introduction to Statistics" was the first great episode (Abed as Batman!) & where the show hit stride. Season two's zombie epidemic, "Epidemiology," is maybe the funniest episode the show's ever done. Last year's "Horror Fiction in Seven Spooky Steps" was a fun look at the psyches, & storytelling abilities, of the Greendale Seven. So this episode had a lot to live up to & thus it's no surprise that Megan Ganz, one of the best writers of the last 2 seasons, was handed scripting duties for this episode & she delivered.

'Community' Watch: "History 101"

Community without Dan Harmon still has plenty of sex appeal.

The relationship I have with Community is different from any other sitcom I've had the pleasure of watching. There have been others that I've found funnier (Arrested Development), been totally obsessed with (The Office), that I was with from the beginning even when seemingly no one else was watching (Party Down), or that I even think have a better cast (Parks and Recreation), but there's always been something unique about Community.

 Part of it is simply a a combo of all the above. The darkest timeline in "Remedial Chaos Theory" is the funniest 90 seconds of TV I've ever seen. I may never match my obsession for season 2 of The Office but with Community I haven't been limited to one season in particular, but rather devour all the DVD commentaries & other extras & reading multiple recaps of each episode. That first season of Community I had few, if any people, besides my brother to discuss the show with before finally talking friends into watching it* or finding others who were already streets ahead. & while I'd give Parks brilliant cast** the edge there's not a weak spot in the Community cast.***

*It's possible I've done more facebook posts on "Community" than all other shows combined, I've certainly posted more clips, & that's saying something. 

**This is where I have to remind anyone not watching"Parks" to get their shit together. 

***I've had problems with Pierce &, especially, Chang but that's had much more to do with the writing than Chevy Chase of Ken Jeong's performances. 

Beyond that it's a show that in many ways seems tailor made for me, & other TV/movie geeks, with the many pop culture references, the various theme episodes, & Abed himself whose use of television knowledge to better understand real life is not altogether different than my own thinking. So when Sony announced they had let Den Harmon, the mad genius behind the show, go after last season there were some big questions about the future of this show that I, & a few million others, loved so much.

Super Bowl XLVII Preview!

In this biggest brother versus brother battle since
 the Civil War who will come out on top?

After being teased with it last year, & thankfully avoiding it as a Giants fan, today we get to see the Harbaugh Bowl. As someone with a brother equally obsessed with sports I do find this to be fascinating, but of course you're probably already sick of hearing about them especially since really all most of us want is an exciting game & we could care less about the Harbaugh family dynamics but let me offer my one thought on the issue.

Doesn't this game have to mean more to John? Not just simplistically because it sucks to lose to your younger sibling but because John's been coaching football since 1984. What was Jim doing for many of those years? Playing quarterback in the NFL from 1987-2000 (where he notably was the first player Ray Lewis sacked, & later a teammate of the deer-antler aficionado). You spend decades working your ass off, moving up the coaching ranks, while your brother experiences the glory of being an NFL QB. Then your brother spends just two years as an NFL assistant before getting a college head coaching job & now that you've finally reached the biggest game of your career, what you've been working towards for 28 years, there's your hot headed brother trying to take your glory in just his 2nd season as an NFL head coach. Yea, this game definitely means more to John.

As for the actual teams there's a narrative that they're similar smash mouth, tough defense, run the ball teams & while there's some truth to that it's overly simplistic. Sure they both like to run the ball but the Ravens do so with the great Vonta Leach leading the way at fullback, & never with their quarterback, while the Niners are the two tight end, pistol loving, team that makes running the football seem as exciting as any team without Adrian Peterson can.

Championship Game Picks

Will the Harbaughs be disappointed again
 by Championship weekend?

We're nearing the end & my 3 year streak of predicting the AFC Champion is a game of way from being extended as the Pats made quick work of the Texans, & my preseason NFC pick, Atlanta, is also a game away from making me look like a genius for the 2nd time in 3 years.* Or at least as close to a genius as someone who picked Lovie Smith to be coach of the year can be, & who is 3-5 both overall & against the spread this playoffs.** Beyond my own selfish hopes of having my prognostication being proven correct there's plenty of other storylines for this weekend. We've got the Patriots/Ravens rematch of both last season's nail-biting championship & this year's 1 point Baltimore victory. The Falcons as the third team in five years (joining the Cardinals & Bears) to be hosting the NFC Championship & yet still be the underdog. The rise of Colin Kaepernick. The second straight year with a chance at a Harbaugh Bowl. Tom Brady potentially playing against his hometown team. Matt Ryan's potential redemption. &, most likely, the swan songs for two of the greatest players in the history of the game in Tony Gonzalez & Ray Lewis. It's a fascinating set of possibilities & I'll do my best to predict which ones will ultimately materialize.

*I nailed the Packers over Steelers back in 2010-11. Imagine if I'd wagered on that matchup before the season... Damn.

**With it being one of my friends last weekend in Tucson before moving to NYC I didn't find the time to write up my picks for the Sunday games but, as posted on my facebook, they were Seahawks 24-20 & Patriots 31-17. 

Saturday's Divisional Picks

After thinking about it for 2,821 days will Aaron
Rodgers finally get his revenge on the 49ers?

We've once again reached the best weekend of the NFL season when the 8 best teams in the league face off over two days & today I'll run through the Saturday games & hopefully recover from my horrible 1-3 record against the spread last week (thanks for saving me Seattle!) & pedestrian 2-2 overall.

NFL Wild Card Picks

Will Sunday be the end for Ray Lewis?

I'm back after a two month hiatus to bring you my picks for the first week of the NFL playoffs.* It's been one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory dominated by a half dozen different stories throughout the year. We had the undefeated Cardinals & then we had the regular Cardinals.** There were the replacement refs who ranged from surprisingly solid to Golden-Gate bad, an argument over which rookie QB was the best*** that began with two guys & expanded to include a surprising third, two historic comebacks by all-time greats & two historic individual seasons with Adrian Peterson somehow being involved in both.**** Luckily among all of these crazy happenings we still had the Dallas Cowboys there to help keep our bearings as they stumbled out of the gate, rebounded strongly in the second half just to get their fans hopes up, & then lost the last game of the season to blow a playoff spot in favor of a third place finish in the division, just as they had the year before. Now though the true season begins...

*Hopefully I'll be able to both redeem myself for my horrible (at least on the AFC side) preseason picks & continue my playoff prediction hot streak from last year when I correctly predicted 9 of the 11 games  & beat the spread 8 of 11 times. 

**Last season I would occasionally get into arguments with people over how bad John Skelton was. Those I opposed put forth he had promise & was probably better than Kolb, I said Skelton was a giant pile of crap trying to pass himself off as an NFL quarterback. I think it's safe to say I'll never have to argue that again. 

***It's Luck. The stats don't back me up, but they also don't tell you how much more dependent the Colts are on Luck than the Skins or Hawks are on their rookie signal callers. As good as RG3 was Kirk Cousins finished off one game saving drive & won another game with Griffin out, Wilson has by far the best team around him, & they both have great running games to support them. Luck had Reggie Wayne &... Yea. 

****My MVP ballot: 
1. AP-2,097 yards on 6.0 YPC while dragging Christian Ponder into the playoffs.
2. Brady-The Patriots scored 76 points more than any other team even with their best offensive weapon, Gronkowski, out much of the year.
3. Peyton-Looked even sharper than in his last year with the Colts as he took the Broncos from overachievers to legit contenders.